Business
What have tariffs really done to the US economy?
Soon after Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, he began raising tariffs, brushing off warnings from economists and businesses about the risks of economic damage.
He started with Mexico, Canada and China, then targeted steel, aluminium and cars, and finally in April, on what he called “Liberation Day”, unleashed a blitz of new taxes on goods from countries around the world.
The plans hit trade and roiled financial markets. But as worries mounted, Trump quickly suspended his most aggressive plans to allow for 90 days of talks.
As that 9 July deadline approaches and the president crafts his approach, he will have one eye on the US economy.
So what has the impact really been?
The stock market has rebounded
Trump’s plans included tariffs of 20% on goods from the European Union, punishing tariffs on items from China of 145%, and a 46% levy on imports from Vietnam, though on Wednesday he announced a deal that will see the US charge tariffs of 20% on Vietnam.
The US stock market suffered the most immediate hit, starting to slide in February and finally tanking in April after Trump unveiled the full scope of his plans, on so-called “Liberation Day”.
The S&P 500, which tracks 500 of the biggest companies in the US, dropped about 12% over the course of a week.
But shares bounced back after Trump rolled back his plans, abandoning steep tariffs in favour of a more easily swallowed 10% rate instead.
Now, the S&P 500 index is up about 6% for the year. In the UK and Europe, shares have also rebounded.
But shares of tariff-vulnerable firms, such as retailers and car companies are still hurting – and there is more risk ahead, as the talks deadline approaches.
The White House has left its options open, saying both that the deadline is “not critical” and that the president may simply present other countries “with a deal” on that date.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said the rebound suggested “a lot of complacency” among investors, who risk being spooked again should Trump revive higher tariffs than they expect.
Trade is at a crossroads
Trump’s tariffs precipitated a rush of goods to the US in the early part of the year, followed by a sharp drop in April and May.
But zoom out a bit, and US goods imports in the first five months of the year were up 17% compared with the same period last year.
What happens in the months ahead will depend on whether Trump extends his pause – or revives his more aggressive plans, said Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates, which tracks port traffic for the National Retail Federation.
“At this point it’s anybody’s guess,” Mr Hackett said, noting that for now the situation was “in a holding pattern”.
“If the tariff freeze disappears and the high tariffs are reimposed then almost certainly we’re going to have a short recession,” he added.
Impact on prices is unclear
In the US, imported goods are estimated to account for only about 11% of consumer spending.
Trump and his allies have argued that fears that tariffs – which, on average, are now roughly six times higher than they were at the start of the year – will drive up the cost of living for Americans are overblown.
They have pointed in part to recent inflation data, which showed consumer prices stepping up just 0.1% from April to May.
But certain items, such as toys, saw far bigger jumps and many goods facing higher duties have not yet made it to shelves.
Firms, especially those cushioned by strong profits, could opt to pass the increases on gradually, rather than alienate customers with an abrupt jump.
Despite pressure from the president to “eat the tariffs”, economists still widely expect customers to pay for them eventually.
“If you’re not digging more into the data you would think, ‘nothing to see here’ from an inflation standpoint,” says Ms Sonders. “But it’s premature at this point to hang the victory banner.”
Consumer spending is slowing
Economic sentiment in the US started falling earlier this year, as Trump began to set out his tariff plans.
But political views play a big role in shaping opinions on the economy, so whether the worries would actually lead households to clamp down on spending over the long term remained a matter of debate.
We are now starting to see signs of pullback: retail sales dropped 0.9% from April to May, the second month in a row of decline. It was the first back-to-back fall since the end of 2023.
Overall consumer spending grew at the slowest rate since 2020 in the first three months of the year, and slipped unexpectedly in May, the most recent month for which data is available.
But while growth is still expected to slow significantly compared with last year, most analysts say the economy should be able to escape a recession – so long as the job market continues to hold up.
Though layoff notices have been pacing higher, for now, unemployment remains low, at 4.2%. Job creation last month continued at a pace similar to the average over the last 12 months.
“We’re sort of in this stall mode right now in the economy, a kind of wait-and-see mode, that is driven by pretty grave uncertainty and the instability in policy,” Ms Sonders said, noting that many firms were responding with a self-imposed “time-out” on hiring and investment.
The economy is unlikely to escape unscathed, she warned.
“It’s hard to lay out a scenario of a pickup in growth from here,” she said. “The question is more, will it just be a softening of the economy or a bigger slide.”
Business
AI video becomes more convincing, rattling creative industry
AI (Artificial Intelligence) letters and robot miniature in this illustration. The creative industry is concerned over the rapid developments in AI-generated videos. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
NEW YORK, United States – Gone are the days of six-fingered hands or distorted faces — AI-generated video is becoming increasingly convincing, attracting Hollywood, artists, and advertisers, while shaking the foundations of the creative industry.
To measure the progress of AI video, you need only look at Will Smith eating spaghetti.
Since 2023, this unlikely sequence — entirely fabricated — has become a technological benchmark for the industry.
READ: How investments in reskilling, building trust can help Philippine firms navigate AI era
Two years ago, the actor appeared blurry, his eyes too far apart, his forehead exaggeratedly protruding, his movements jerky, and the spaghetti didn’t even reach his mouth.
The version published a few weeks ago by a user of Google’s Veo 3 platform showed no apparent flaws whatsoever.
“Every week, sometimes every day, a different one comes out that’s even more stunning than the next,” said Elizabeth Strickler, a professor at Georgia State University.
Between Luma Labs’ Dream Machine launched in June 2024, OpenAI’s Sora in December, Runway AI’s Gen-4 in March 2025, and Veo 3 in May, the sector has crossed several milestones in just a few months.
Runway has signed deals with Lionsgate studio and AMC Networks television group.
Lionsgate vice president Michael Burns told New York Magazine about the possibility of using artificial intelligence to generate animated, family-friendly versions from films like the “John Wick” or “Hunger Games” franchises, rather than creating entirely new projects.
“Some use it for storyboarding or previsualization” — steps that come before filming — “others for visual effects or inserts,” said Jamie Umpherson, Runway’s creative director.
Burns gave the example of a script for which Lionsgate has to decide whether to shoot a scene or not.
To help make that decision, they can now create a 10-second clip “with 10,000 soldiers in a snowstorm.”
That kind of pre-visualization would have cost millions before.
In October, the first AI feature film was released — “Where the Robots Grow” — an animated film without anything resembling live action footage.
For Alejandro Matamala Ortiz, Runway’s co-founder, an AI-generated feature film is not the end goal, but a way of demonstrating to a production team that “this is possible.”
‘Resistance everywhere’
Still, some see an opportunity.
In March, startup Staircase Studio made waves by announcing plans to produce seven to eight films per year using AI for less than $500,000 each, while ensuring it would rely on unionized professionals wherever possible.
“The market is there,” said Andrew White, co-founder of small production house Indie Studios.
People “don’t want to talk about how it’s made,” White pointed out. “That’s inside baseball. People want to enjoy the movie because of the movie.”
But White himself refuses to adopt the technology, considering that using AI would compromise his creative process.
Jamie Umpherson argues that AI allows creators to stick closer to their artistic vision than ever before, since it enables unlimited revisions, unlike the traditional system constrained by costs.
“I see resistance everywhere” to this movement, observed Georgia State’s Strickler.
This is particularly true among her students, who are concerned about AI’s massive energy and water consumption as well as the use of original works to train models, not to mention the social impact.
But refusing to accept the shift is “kind of like having a business without having the internet,” she said. “You can try for a little while.”
In 2023, the American actors’ union SAG-AFTRA secured concessions on the use of their image through AI.
Strickler sees AI diminishing Hollywood’s role as the arbiter of creation and taste, instead allowing more artists and creators to reach a significant audience.
Runway’s founders, who are as much trained artists as they are computer scientists, have gained an edge over their AI video rivals in film, television, and advertising.
But they’re already looking further ahead, considering expansion into augmented reality and virtual reality — for example creating a metaverse where films could be shot.
“The most exciting applications aren’t necessarily the ones that we have in mind,” said Umpherson. “The ultimate goal is to see what artists do with technology.”
Business
Three ways you can make AI generate business leads for you
For quite a while now, people within the business community have been talking about how AI continues to improve task efficiency and streamline operations, but few are truly exploring how this new era is affecting new business lead generation.
Since opening Agent99’s doors 18 years ago, part of my new business strategy has simply been to ask people how they found us. The majority of our leads come through referrals, followed by Google. However, just last week, I was on two new business calls and when I asked both prospects how they came across Agent99, they gave the same surprising response: “by asking ChatGPT”.
Where consumers and clients once relied on Google for recommendations, be it agencies, restaurants, dry cleaners, or anything in between, that’s no longer the default.
Today, people are entering these same queries into AI tools and expecting real-time, curated answers based on a mix of web data, reviews, and sentiment. And this shift has caught many business owners off guard. A high Google ranking no longer guarantees your business will be visible or recommended through AI platforms. All that work on your SEO strategy? It’s no longer the only game in town.
This was a light bulb moment for me as a business owner. If you’re not thinking about how you rank on AI platforms and prioritising this, you’re losing new business opportunities.
When I took a deeper look at why we were ranking so well on ChatGPT, and how this new kind of ‘search engine’ prioritises content, I realised (after some thorough research) that it’s because we’ve consistently focussed on our own PR (ie third party credible endorsement), winning awards, garnering reviews from our clients, and reporting on our marketing campaigns on our own website blog and social pages. This is what AI platforms prioritise when making recommendations.
So, if you’ve noticed a dip in leads lately or you simply want to boost your company’s visibility in the AI space, here are three strategies I strongly recommend.
Make your SEO plan AI-friendly
It’s no longer enough to optimise your company website for Google alone. Instead of short, Boolean-style search queries, people are now asking long-form, conversational questions. And in response, tools like ChatGPT are generating concise, curated answers drawn from a wide range of sources — with a clear preference for natural, human-sounding language.
It might seem ironic that AI prefers human content, but it’s the new reality.
To match this, we recommend rewriting key pages on your website, starting with your ‘About’, ‘Services’ and ‘Home’ pages, using language that mirrors how real people would ask for your services in everyday conversation.
For example, instead of writing: “We deliver integrated management solutions,” try: “We help Australian businesses develop management strategies that support sustainable growth”.
If relevant, start a blog that directly answers the kinds of questions people might be asking ChatGPT, and think carefully about how they’re asking them. Once you’ve mapped out your content strategy, commit to publishing consistently. AI platforms favour businesses that post regularly and demonstrate long-term authority in their field.
Prioritise earned media and content
AI tools place more weight on what others say about your business than what you say about yourself. So, while your website content is important, the next priority is securing earned media coverage. This includes article mentions in credible publications and thought leadership content in niche outlets relevant to your industry.
While the media landscape has evolved, organic coverage on high-authority platforms still carries serious influence. That includes local business media, trade publications, and long-form podcasts — especially those with strong digital footprints. A single mention in a well-respected outlet often holds more weight than a dozen paid ads in the eyes of AI.
You should also be submitting your business for awards, rankings, and “Best of” lists. Third-party recognition like “Top PR Agencies in Australia” or “Best Accountants in Melbourne” dramatically increases your chances of being recommended by AI tools for those search terms.
Lastly, make sure you’re actively collecting client testimonials and online reviews. Reach out to past and current clients and ask for a testimonial you can publish. Genuine, positive sentiment from others boosts your ranking and trust level within AI results.
Show up where conversations are happening
A lesser-known — but highly effective — way to improve your AI visibility is by showing up where your audience is already talking. Think Reddit, Quora, LinkedIn comments, Facebook groups, and even the comment sections of popular blogs or YouTube videos. AI tools are constantly crawling and learning from these conversations, and businesses that participate meaningfully often see a lift in visibility.
Start by choosing two or three platforms where your target audience is most active. If you’re B2B, this might be LinkedIn or industry forums. If you’re more consumer-facing, Reddit, TikTok, or Facebook might be the place. Jump in, answer questions, share your perspective, and most importantly, offer value.
When your brand is mentioned organically or involved in high-engagement threads, it sends strong signals to AI tools. Over time, this can help position your business as a credible authority in your space.
Also, respond to users who tag or mention your brand on social platforms. Engaging with user-generated content builds trust, encourages loyalty, and creates digital breadcrumbs that prove your relevance and responsiveness — two factors that AI prioritises more than ever.
AI isn’t just a trend; it’s a fundamental shift in how consumers discover and choose businesses.
Rather than fearing this new giant in the room, lean in. By understanding how AI platforms work and proactively shaping your digital footprint, you’ll improve your ability to attract quality leads, earn recommendations, and strengthen your brand presence in what’s becoming an increasingly competitive and complex market.
Business
Maternity brand Seraphine worn by Kate enters administration
The maternity fashion retailer Seraphine, whose clothes were worn by the Princess of Wales during her three pregnancies, has ceased trading and entered administration.
Consultancy firm Interpath confirmed to the BBC on Monday that it had been appointed as administrators by the company and that the “majority” of its 95 staff had been made redundant.
It said the brand had experienced “trading challenges” in recent times with sales being hit by “fragile consumer confidence”.
The fashion retailer was founded in 2002, but perhaps hit its peak when Catherine wore its maternity clothes on several occasions, leading to items quickly selling out.
Prior to the confirmation that administrators had been appointed, which was first reported by the Financial Times, Seraphine’s website was offering discounts on items as big as 60%. Its site now appears to be inaccessible to shoppers.
The main job of administration is to save the company, and administrators will try to rescue it by selling it, or parts of it. If that is not possible it will be closed down and all its saleable assets sold.
Will Wright, UK chief executive of Interpath, said economic challenges such as “rising costs and brittle consumer confidence” had proved “too challenging to overcome” for Seraphine.
Interpath said options are now being explored for the business and its assets, including the Seraphine brand.
The retailer’s flagship store was in Kensington High Street, London, but other well-known shops, such as John Lewis and Next, also stocked its goods.
The rise in popularity of Seraphine, driven in part by Royalty wearing its clothes, led to the company listing on the London Stock Exchange in 2021, before being taking back into private ownership in 2023.
Interpath said in April this year, the company “relaunched its brand identity, with a renewed focus on form, function and fit”.
“However, with pressure on cashflow continuing to mount, the directors of the business sought to undertake an accelerated review of their investment options, including exploring options for sale and refinance,” a statement said.
“Sadly, with no solvent options available, the directors then took the difficult decision to file for the appointment of administrators.”
Staff made redundant as a result of the company’s downfall are to be supported making claims to the redundancy payments service, Interpath added.
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