The tragic Fourth of July flash flood in Texas that has killed at least 78 people is shining a spotlight on the nation’s growing vulnerability to climate disaster.

As rescue crews continue their frantic search for missing children along the Guadalupe River, experts say it is just the latest warning of how rising temperatures are worsening the flood risk.

There have been increasing signs of extreme weather across the world, from more intense droughts to stronger and more intense rainstorms. These impacts have been felt profoundly with more destructive fires, intense water shortages and flooding in California as well as in many other parts of the world.

While the focus remains on frantic search for missing people in the Texas flood zone, this weekend’s tragedy is already heightening discussion on shifting federal climate policy.

Critics fear grim consquences as the federal government slashes funding for weather forecasting, shutters climate websites and databases, lays off scientists and researchers and weakens disaster response capabilities at a moment when climate change is increasing the frequency of such events.

That includes California, where the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its subsidiary, the National Weather Service, are reeling from cutbacks ordered by the Trump administration. In May, at least two California offices of the NWS said they no longer have enough staff to operate overnight: Hanford and Sacramento, which together cover nearly all of the Central Valley and Sierra Nevada mountains, some of the state’s most fire-and-flood-prone areas.

Nationally, more than 600 scientists and meteorologists have already been laid off or taken a buyout from NOAA this year. The Trump administration is planning to cut thousands more employees next year — approximately 17% of its workforce — and slash the agency’s budget by more than $1.5 billion, according to the fiscal 2026 budget request. The president has said the changes will help reduce federal waste and save taxpayers money.

Yet these and other changes come as human-caused climate change contributes to larger and more frequent floods, wildfires and hurricanes, among other worsening disasters. The Texas flood, in particular, was marked by the type of extremely intense, highly localized downpour that is becoming much more common due to global warming. Portions of the Guadalupe River rose 26 feet in less than an hour, state officials said.

“This is one of the hardest things to predict that’s becoming worse faster than almost anything else in a warming climate, and it’s at a moment where we’re defunding the ability of meteorologists and emergency managers to coordinate,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources. “That trifecta seems like a recipe for disaster.”

Indeed, just how frequently such events occur will soon become harder to tell, as the Trump administration has already eliminated NOAA’s database for tracking billion-dollar disasters. Its last update before the shutdown confirmed that there were 27 weather and climate disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion each in the United States in 2024. In the 1980s, the nation averaged just 3.3 such events per year, adjusted for inflation, the database shows.

The administration last week shut down the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s website, which housed congressionally mandated reports and research on climate change. Meanwhile, the weather service has begun halting weather balloon operations at multiple locations due to staffing shortages, reducing the amount of data that’s available.

Details about the Texas incident are still unfolding. Some state officials were quick to point the finger at the National Weather Service — including Texas Division of Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd, who said forecasts did not adequately predict the amount of rain that fell on the area.

Agency officials said they did their job — issuing multiple warnings in advance of the incident, including some that advised of potentially catastrophic conditions. A timeline provided to The Times by the National Weather Service indicated that an expanded flood hazard outlook was issued on the morning of July 3, and that multiple, increasingly urgent alerts followed.

“The National Weather Service is heartbroken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County,” agency spokesperson Erica Grow Cei said in an email, adding that the NWS “remains committed to our mission to serve the American public through our forecasts and decision support services.”

However, the local area office was also short several key positions, including a senior hydrologist, staff forecaster and meteorologist in charge, the New York Times reported Sunday. Also absent was the office’s warning coordination meteorologist — the person who acts as the liaison between the weather service and the public and emergency management officials — who took Trump’s buyout earlier this year.

On Sunday, Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro called for an investigation into whether staffing shortages at the agency played a role, telling CNN’s “State of the Union” that “not having enough personnel is never helpful.”

In a statement, the White House did not address staff reductions but said no funding cuts have yet occurred at the National Weather Service.

“The timely and accurate forecasts and alerts for Texas this weekend prove that the NWS remains fully capable of carrying out its critical mission,” a spokesperson from the U.S. Commerce Department, which oversees NOAA, said in an email.

While the precise circumstances that surrounded the Texas tragedy will continue to be studied in the days and weeks ahead, experts say it is clear that such climate hazards will continue to happen.

“With a warmer atmosphere, there is no doubt that we have seen an increase in the frequency and the magnitude of flash flooding events globally,” said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist with AccuWeather.

Porter credited the weather service with issuing warnings in advance of the flash flood, but said there was a breakdown when it came to local officials’ response to the information.

“The key question is, what did people do with those warnings that were timely, that were issued?” Porter said. “What was their reaction, what was their weather safety plan, and then what actions did they take to based upon those timely warnings, in order to ensure that people’s lives were saved?”

A person reacts while looking at belongings outside sleeping quarters at Camp Mystic along the banks of the Guadalupe River after a flash flood swept through the area in Hunt, Texas.

(Julio Cortez / Associated Press)

Yet even efforts to enhance coordination between the weather service, the government and the general public could soon be on the chopping block. NOAA has been researching better ways to communicate disaster warnings, including improved public education and early warning systems, at its Oceanic and Atmospheric Research division, which is facing a hefty 74% budget cut if not complete elimination.

The president’s proposed 2026 budget would also reduce funding for specialized, high-resolution thunderstorm models that have been developed for just this type of event, according to Swain of UC ANR. He noted that it’s an area of research that was pioneered by the U.S. government, in large part because the country has some of the most extreme thunderstorm weather in the world.

“Nearly all of the research in the world, historically, toward understanding these types of storms and predicting them has been sponsored by the U.S. federal government, and nearly all the advances we have made have been U.S. taxpayer-dollar funded,” Swain said. “Other countries aren’t going to do that on behalf of the U.S. … So if we don’t do it for ourselves, we aren’t going to have access to that.”

The Texas flood “is representative of precisely the kind of nightmare scenario that is going to become more likely with the further extreme cuts that are proposed, and likely to be implemented to some degree,” he added.

Notably, the changes at NOAA and the NWS are meeting with other new priorities from the president, including a renewed investment in oil and gas drilling — fossil fuel industries that are among the top contributors to global warming.

In southeastern states such as Florida, officials are also grappling with reduced hurricane forecasting capabilities at the height of hurricane season.

And in California, where multiple wildfires are currently burning, state officials are also facing reduced firefighting capabilities as Trump deploys National Guard firefighting troops in Los Angeles and reduced forest management and firefighting staffing at the U.S. Forest Service.

The administration has also expressed interest in disbanding FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, as early as this fall.

• BONK has overtaken Pump.fun in daily bonded Solana tokens.
• Is this the beginning of a bigger shift in where capital flows on-chain?

Solana’s [SOL] memecoin ecosystem is gaining serious traction, accounting for 20% of the total $54 billion memecoin market cap, with $11 billion in combined value. 

Sure, Pump.fun has taken the spotlight with its explosive launch cycles. But beneath the surface, the data points to a deeper structural shift.

Bonk [BONK], often overlooked in the “hype”, is quietly tightening its grip on the ecosystem.

So, is BONK quietly becoming the backbone of Solana’s meme economy, while everyone else chases quick pumps?

BONK overtakes Pump.fun in daily bonded tokens

Pump.fun, launched in January 2024, redefined token creation on Solana. Within a year, it had raked in $368 million in revenue—averaging $1.5 million daily—and surpassed $700 million in total revenue by year-end.

Over 11 million tokens were launched via bonding curves, which required SOL to be locked to mint tokens, pushing prices up as bonding increased.

But as the chart below shows, Pump.fun’s daily volume dropped significantly, now averaging around $150 million per day, down from a yearly average of $400 million.

In contrast, BONK-linked platforms have now overtaken Pump.fun in daily bonded SOL, capturing 53.2% of bonded activity, marking a first in the platform’s history.

This divergence is telling: Are traders beginning to rotate liquidity into more structurally sticky protocols like BONK-linked platforms, signaling a maturation of Solana’s memecoin economy?

SOL lockups signal a move beyond hype cycles

To gauge BONK’s SOL-bonded activity, the most reliable metric is the TVL of Bonk Staked SOL.

On the 6th of July, DeFiLlama data pegged the same at $11.98 million, up from roughly $8 million in early May. That’s a nearly 50% rise in just two months.

Sure, functionally it is similar to Pump.fun’s bonding curve model, where users bond SOL to mint tokens. 

But unlike short-term hype cycles, this number actually shows real commitment, SOL that’s being locked into BONK’s ecosystem long term. 

Source: DeFiLlama

So BONK flipping Pump.fun in bonded token volume for the first time ever isn’t some fluke. Instead, it points to a structural shift.

Pump.fun might’ve kickstarted the wave, but BONK’s now pulling in the kind of capital that actually sticks. If this keeps up, BONK could end up leading Solana’s memecoin scene in Q3.

As news spread that Vietnam would become just the second nation to reach an initial tariff agreement with Washington, shares in the clothing companies and manufacturers that have a large footprint in the country rose with optimism.

Just hours later though, they declined sharply, as it became clear that the devil would be in the detail, and the most striking part of the deal might in fact be aimed at Vietnam’s powerful neighbour China.

Dodging the severe levy of 46% that was threatened in April, Vietnam is instead facing a tariff of 20% for many goods, and in return US products coming into the country will have zero tariffs placed on them.

However, a 40% tariff will remain for so-called transshipments – a provision that is aimed at Chinese companies accused of passing their products through Vietnam, or elsewhere, to avoid US tariffs.

Businesses worry that “transshipment” is a politicised term, and that if the US defines it too broadly, many goods could be unfairly targeted.

“Vietnam is a manufacturing hub – and as a hub you take inputs from other countries and make value-added stuff in Vietnam, and then export it to other countries,” says Dr Nguyen Khac Giang, visiting fellow at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute.

It is unrealistic, he adds, to expect most Vietnamese goods, other than agricultural products, would be made entirely in Vietnam. What remains to be decided is: what proportion of a product should be?

How transshipments will be defined under the agreement – and how this policy will be enforced – remains to be seen, but it could have significant implications for global trade and tensions with China.

“One lesson for other countries is that the US intends to use these deals to apply pressure on China,” said Stephen Olson, a former US trade negotiator.

Vietnam, a booming manufacturing hub, benefited during the last Trump administration when punishing tariffs placed on China prompted many Chinese companies to shift their supply chains.

However, this caused the Vietnamese trade surplus with the US to surge, attracting US ire and allegations that Vietnam was wrongly acting as a conduit for Chinese companies wanting access to the US market.

China’s commerce ministry spokesperson He Yongqian responded to the US-Vietnam deal on Thursday stating: “We firmly oppose any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests. If such a situation occurs, China will resolutely counter it to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”

Vietnam’s manufacturing industry is closely intertwined with both the US and China. US exports account for 30% of Vietnam’s GDP, while China is Vietnam’s top import source, relied on for raw materials used to make anything from footwear to furniture and electronics.

Vietnam is not alone in relying on China for such components, especially across electronic sectors. “[China] is completely interwoven into global supply chains,” says Dan Martin, international business adviser at Dezan Shira and Associates, based in Hanoi.

If companies are expected to prove the origin of all goods, this could place an unwelcome burden on those in sectors such as textiles where margins are low, says Martin.

However, he cautions that it remains to be seen whether the higher 40% tariff on transshipments will be actively enforced. It is also possible that Vietnam could benefit if US policy encourages suppliers to set up shop in Vietnam, Martin adds.

Businesses are largely pausing decisions until a clearer picture emerges, say analysts.

Policymakers in Hanoi remain on a diplomatic tightrope. Vietnam has long sought to balance relations with Washington and Beijing. It considers the US not only a key export market but a security partner that serves as a counterbalance to China’s assertiveness.

However, if Beijing considers that Hanoi is helping Washington constrain it, this risks antagonising Vietnam’s northern neighbour. It could lead to economic measures from China, or pressure over the disputed South China Sea, a major flashpoint in the region, says Peter Mumford, head of practice for south-east Asia at Eurasia Group.

As things stand, “aggressive retaliation” by Beijing against Hanoi is unlikely, he says: “Hanoi may even have given Beijing a rough indication of the steps it would have to take to secure a US trade deal.”

Vietnam has made efforts to show goodwill towards China over recent months, while also courting Trump.

In exchange for the 20% tariff rate, Trump said Vietnam would open up its market to US goods. US-made SUVs, “which do so well in the United States, will be a wonderful addition to the various product lines within Vietnam”, said Trump.

However the market for cars remains small in Vietnam, where city streets are famously crammed with millions of motorbikes.