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UC Berkeley’s Emi Nakamura on Central Bank Credibility and the Taylor Rule

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The post-Covid inflation will prove to be a treasure trove for academic economists, as they study what drives inflation, and the power that central banks have to contain it once it gets going. At this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, UC Berkeley professor Emi Nakamura presented a new paper — co-authored with her Berkeley colleagues Jón Steinsson and Venance Riblier — titled Beyond the Taylor Rule. The paper sought to look at the wide range of choices that global central banks made in dealing with inflation to see what if anything could be learned about the Taylor Rule, a load-bearing idea in modern economics that describes what optimal monetary policy looks like when successfully balancing the Federal Reserve’s objectives. Their paper discovers that in any bout of inflation, a central bank that has a greater history of fighting inflation also has the ability to deviate further from strict Taylor Rule guidelines, without achieving worse inflation outcomes. In an interview recorded in Jackson Hole, we speak with Professor Nakamura about her work and its implications for central bankers going forward.



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Funding & Business

SoftBank, Rakuten Tap Japan’s Booming Retail Demand for Bonds

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Sales of corporate bonds to Japan’s mom and pop investors are booming, on track to surpass last year’s record as bigger returns draw buyers looking to protect their savings from inflation.

Well-known names such as railway operator Keio Corp. and supermarket giant Aeon Co. are among those tapping the retail bond market, with the latter selling its debut retail bond on Friday.



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Funding & Business

Tame US Job Growth Expected in Approach to Fed Meeting

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Employers in the US showed little enthusiasm to take on workers during August, and the unemployment rate probably ticked up to an almost four-year high, adding to evidence of a more subdued labor market.

Economists project about 75,000 jobs were added, based on the median of a Bloomberg survey, while the jobless rate is seen at 4.3%. Four straight months of sub-100,000 payrolls growth would mark the weakest such stretch since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.



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Funding & Business

Elliott Recommended as Citgo Buyer With $5.89 Billion Proposal

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An Elliott Investment Management affiliate emerged as the recommended bidder in the court-ordered auction of Citgo Petroleum Corp.’s parent, offering $5.89 billion and a deal to pay off bondholders that have a pledge on the asset.

On the other side of the legal fight was Gold Reserve Ltd., a Venezuelan creditor suing the country for the expropriation of its mining assets. The firm was also offering to buy US-based PDV Holding, Citgo’s parent, for more than $7 billion in a proposal that would exclude bondholders.



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