Breaking down that backlog shows that Oracle will be reaping the benefit of those deals for years to come:

• Fiscal 2026 cloud revenue of $18 billion, up 77%

• Fiscal 2027 cloud revenue of $32 billion, up 78%

• Fiscal 2028 cloud revenue of $73 billion, up 128%

• Fiscal 2029 cloud revenue of $114 billion, up 56%

• Fiscal 2030 cloud revenue of $144 billion, up 26%

The company notes that the majority of the revenue in this outlook is already booked in RPO, so there are contracts backing these forecasts. If Oracle is able to reach these lofty benchmarks, and that’s still a big if, OCI will join the big leagues of cloud infrastructure and could potentially unseat one or more of the Big Three.

As previously stated, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google top the list of cloud infrastructure providers, so it helps to see where they stand. During the first six months of 2025, AWS generated revenue of $60.1 billion, up 17%, suggesting a run rate of $120 billion. During the same period, Google Cloud’s revenue came in at $25.9 billion, up 30%, suggesting a run rate of about $51.8 billion. Microsoft doesn’t generally break out Azure’s revenue, but it recently revealed that for fiscal 2025 (ended June 30), Azure surpassed $75 billion in revenue, up 34%.

Given the limitations, this is obviously not an apples-to-apples comparison, but it provides us with a starting point. Taking these extrapolated figures and applying their most recent growth rates over the coming four years, here’s where the Big Three would stand by the end of calendar 2029 compared to Oracle:

Using our imperfect information and assuming Oracle can turn its RPO into cloud revenue, this exercise shows a path for OCI to mount a challenge to the Big Three over the next five years.

To be clear, this is fun with numbers, and life doesn’t occur in a vacuum. All of our cloud infrastructure providers will likely grow more quickly or more slowly than our examples suggest. One of the upstart neocloud providers could capture an outsize portion of the market. There are plenty of other examples of what could go very right or very wrong, but you get the idea.

The recent surge in Oracle’s stock price has had a commensurate impact on its valuation, which appears lofty at first glance. The stock is selling for 38 times next year’s earnings, which is certainly a premium. However, using the more appropriate forward price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio, which accounts for the company’s growth trajectory, the multiple comes in at 0.8, when any number less than 1 is the standard for an undervalued stock.

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Danny Vena has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Company Will Reshape Cloud Infrastructure by 2030 was originally published by The Motley Fool