Connect with us

Mergers & Acquisitions

Tech utterly dominates markets. Should we worry?

Published

on


Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

This article is an on-site version of our Unhedged newsletter. Premium subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every weekday. Standard subscribers can upgrade to Premium here, or explore all FT newsletters

Good morning. The S&P 500 is right up against its all-time high. So is bitcoin. And gold. Investment grade credit spreads are at their tightest since Bill Clinton was president. The Treasury market is eerily calm. All this prosperity makes Unhedged certain something awful is about to happen. Why can’t we just enjoy the good times? Email with cures for paranoia: unhedged@ft.com.

Market concentration revisited, again

The most talked-about theme in US stock markets is the very high portion of returns coming from just a few huge companies, most of them in tech. While there are some signs that the rally is broadening a bit (as we wrote a month ago), a handful of stocks still tower over the market like the Colossus of Rhodes. Our long-held position on this is disappointingly wishy-washy. We’re simply not sure how much one should worry about dominance by the few. It is always true, after all, that profitability and returns are very unevenly distributed among companies.

But market narrowness remains the great issue of day, so we will keep looking at the numbers and trying to come up with a sharper view.

The 10 largest US stocks by market cap are Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Broadcom, Tesla, Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan Chase. Together they account for (all figures from S&P Capital IQ):

  • 40 per cent of the value of the S&P 500.

  • 56 per cent of the S&P increase in value since the market bottomed on April 8.

  • 31 per cent of the growth in revenues for the index over the past 12 months.

  • 55 per cent of the growth in net income for the index over the past 12 months (despite falling net income over that period at Apple, Tesla and Berkshire).

  • 69 per cent of the growth in capital expenditure for the index over the past 12 months.

It’s not just that these 10 companies are making all the market gains. They are also producing a whopping portion of the growth in corporate America.

It’s not easy to say whether this level of concentration is historically abnormal. My stock screener cannot pull historical constituents of the S&P 500, so I cannot track the historical share of the index held by the top 10. But I can pull the 10 largest US companies for any historical moment, and look at their value as a proportion of the 500 largest, a reasonable approximation. Looking at five-year intervals, here is what concentration looks like over the past three decades: 

Older readers will look at the column for the year 2000 with some trepidation. That rise in concentration coincided with the wild overvaluation of tech stocks that subsequently melted down. But I’m not sure how tight the analogy is. Putting aside the inexplicable Tesla as a special case, the tech stocks in today’s top 10 are trading at between 20 times forward earnings (Alphabet) and 43 times (Broadcom). Back in 2000, dotcom darling Cisco was trading at 85 times, and Oracle was at 90. And a lot of the damage in the crash was done by smaller, profitless tech companies. 

It is worth looking at how the constitution of the top 10 has changed (or not) over time. Companies that appear more than once in the chart below get a colour; one-hit wonders are left in white:

There are loads of interesting narratives in that chart (look at the decline of GE, in light grey, for example). But it is worth noting that 30 years ago the industries of the biggest companies were, in descending order, industrials, energy, consumer staples, tech, pharma, consumer staples, tech, retail, tech, consumer staples. Today, the list goes tech, tech, tech, tech, tech, tech, tech, tech, finance, finance. In 2000, there were five tech companies in the top 10. But five years later, three of them were gone; another slightly disconcerting precedent.

How to determine whether concentration makes the market fragile? It might help to break this question down into three sub-questions:

  1. Is the sales and profit growth at the big tech companies (now running at about 15 and 30 per cent, respectively, excluding Tesla) likely to slow significantly?

  2. Might the huge capital expenditure outlays of the big tech companies ($291bn in the last year at Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta alone) turn out to have a very low return on investment, because (for example) fierce competition limits AI profits?

  3. In a big economic slowdown, might valuation fall at the huge companies which constitute so much of the value of the market, causing a major price correction even if the profits of those tech companies hold up?

I’m not all that worried about 1. Apple’s growth has already slowed to close to zero, but it’s still a cash machine and has held on to much of its value because it remains hyper-profitable. I could imagine a similar fate for Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet or Meta. And Microsoft’s ability to stay in the top 10 for three decades (despite some extended periods of iffy management) shows how enduring a software-driven franchise can be. Nvidia, worth $4.4tn on the back of near-100 per cent profit growth, is more of a worry, should peace break out in the AI data centre arms race (notice how Intel, Microsoft’s twin on the hardware side, could not hold on to its place in the rankings).

That brings us to question 2, which I am also not that worried about, except insofar as it would kill Nvidia’s growth. Yes, a lot of money will have been spent sub-optimally if AI is a profit bust, but all that computer power will be useful for something — and the big companies’ legacy businesses will still be churning out cash. 

That leaves question 3, which strikes me as capturing the real worry. It’s just not that hard to imagine the top 10 stocks trading at two-thirds of their current valuations in a bad slowdown recession. Would it be mad for Nvidia to trade at 24 times earnings, or Apple at 20? Not at all. They’ve done it before. And such a collapse in valuations would of course imply a painful market correction. But this point says nothing specific about market concentration — it just repeats the old, not-terribly-helpful point that very expensive markets are a bit worrisome, because they tend not to stay expensive forever. 

One good read

Medically assisted dying in Canada (worth getting past the paywall).

FT Unhedged podcast

Can’t get enough of Unhedged? Listen to our new podcast, for a 15-minute dive into the latest markets news and financial headlines, twice a week. Catch up on past editions of the newsletter here.

Recommended newsletters for you

Due Diligence — Top stories from the world of corporate finance. Sign up here

The Lex Newsletter — Lex, our investment column, breaks down the week’s key themes, with analysis by award-winning writers. Sign up here



Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Mergers & Acquisitions

FTAV’s further reading

Published

on



AI and jobs; Oklahoma and towers; India and retailers; AI and cybercrime; Norway and elections



Source link

Continue Reading

Mergers & Acquisitions

Trump Intel deal designed to block sale of chipmaking unit, CFO says

Published

on


Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free

The Trump administration’s investment in Intel was structured to deter the chipmaker from selling its manufacturing unit, its chief financial officer said on Thursday, locking it into a lossmaking business it has faced pressure to offload.

The US government last week agreed to take a 10 per cent stake in Intel by converting $8.9bn of federal grants under the 2022 Chips Act into equity, the latest unorthodox intervention by President Donald Trump in corporate America.

The agreement also contains a five-year warrant that allows the government to take an additional 5 per cent of Intel at $20 a share if it ceases to own 51 per cent of its foundry business — which aims to make chips for third-party clients.

“I don’t think there’s a high likelihood that we would take our stake below the 50 per cent, so ultimately I would expect [the warrant] to expire,” CFO David Zinsner told a Deutsche Bank conference on Thursday.

“I think from the government’s perspective, they were aligned with that: they didn’t want to see us take the business and spin it off or sell it to somebody.”

Intel has faced pressure to carve off its foundry business as it haemorrhages cash. It lost $13bn last year as it struggled to compete with rival TSMC and attract outside customers.

Zinsner’s comments highlight how the deal with the Trump administration ties the company’s hands.

Analysts including Citi, as well as former Intel board members, have called for a sale — and Intel has seen takeover interest from the likes of Qualcomm.

Intel’s board ousted chief executive Pat Gelsinger, the architect of its ambitious foundry strategy, in December, which intensified expectations that it could ultimately abandon the business.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Thursday the deal was being finalised. “The Intel deal is still being ironed out by the Department of Commerce. The T’s are still being crossed, the I’s are still being dotted.”

Intel received $5.7bn of the government investment on Wednesday, Zinsner said. The remaining $3.2bn of the investment is still dependent on Intel hitting milestones agreed under a Department of Defense scheme and has not yet been paid.

He said the warrants could be viewed as “a little bit of friction to keep us from moving in a direction that I think ultimately the government would prefer we not move to”.

He said the direct government stake could also incentivise potential customers to view Intel on a “different level”.

So far, the likes of Nvidia, Apple and Qualcomm have not placed orders with Intel, which has struggled to convince them it has reliable manufacturing processes that could lure them away from TSMC.

As Intel’s new chief executive Lip-Bu Tan seeks to shore up the company’s finances, the government deal also “eliminated the need to access capital markets”, Zinsner explained.

Given the uncertainty over whether Intel would hit the construction milestones required to receive the Chips Act manufacturing grants, converting the government funds to equity “effectively guaranteed that we’d get the cash”.

“This was a great quarter for us in terms of cash raise,” Zinsner added. Intel had also recently sold $1bn of its shares in Mobileye, and was “within a couple of weeks” of closing a deal to sell 51 per cent of its stake in its specialist chips unit Altera to private equity firm Silver Lake, he noted.

SoftBank also made a $2bn investment in Intel last week. Zinsner pushed back against the idea that it had been co-ordinated with the government, as SoftBank chief executive Masayoshi Son pursues an ever-closer relationship with Trump.

“It was coincidence that it fell all in the same week,” Zinsner said.



Source link

Continue Reading

Mergers & Acquisitions

Nuclear fusion developer raises almost $900mn in new funding

Published

on


Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

One of the most advanced nuclear fusion developers has raised about $900mn from backers including Nvidia and Morgan Stanley, as it races to complete a demonstration plant in the US and commercialise the nascent energy technology.   

Commonwealth Fusion Systems plans to use the money to complete its Sparc fusion demonstration machine and begin work on developing a power plant in Virginia. The group secured a deal in June to supply 200 megawatts of electricity to technology giant Google.

The Google deal was one of only a handful of such commercial agreements in the sector and placed CFS at the forefront of fusion companies trying to perfect the technology and develop a commercially viable machine.

CFS has raised almost $3bn since it was spun out of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2018, drawing investors amid heightened interest in nuclear to meet surging energy demand from artificial intelligence.

“Investors recognise that CFS is making fusion power a reality. They see that we are executing and delivering on our objectives,” said Bob Mumgaard, chief executive and co-founder of CFS. 

New investors in CFS’s latest funding round, which raised $863mn, include NVentures, Nvidia’s venture capital arm, Morgan Stanley’s Counterpoint Global and a consortium of 12 Japanese companies led by Mitsui & Co.

Nuclear fusion seeks to produce clean energy by combining atoms in a manner that releases a significant amount of energy. In contrast, fission — the process used in conventional nuclear power — splits heavy atoms such as uranium into smaller atoms, releasing heat.

CFS is also planning to build the world’s first large-scale fusion power plant in Virginia, which is home to the largest concentration of data centres in the world.

BloombergNEF estimates that US data centre power demand will more than double to 78GW by 2035, from about 35GW last year, and nuclear energy start-ups already have raised more than $3bn in 2025, a 400 per cent increase on 2024 levels.

But experts have warned that addressing the technological challenges to the development of fusion would be expensive, putting into question the viability of the technology.

No group has yet been able to produce more energy from a fusion reaction than the system itself consumes despite decades of experimentation.

“Fusion is radically difficult compared to fission,” said Mark Nelson, managing director of the consultancy Radiant Energy Group, pointing to the incredibly high temperatures and pressures required to combine atoms.

“The hard part is not making fusion reactors. Every step forward towards what may be a dead end economically, looks like something that justifies another billion or a Nobel Prize.



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending