Business
‘Q2T3’ Is the ‘Freakish’ New Growth Benchmark for AI Startups

A new growth metric is doing the rounds in Silicon Valley that shows how exuberant investors have become about generative AI.
In a new State of AI 2025 report, Bessemer Venture Partners introduced a growth benchmark that sets a high bar for today’s AI startup ecosystem.
Called Q2T3 — short for quadruple, quadruple, triple, triple, triple — this metric signals a dramatic departure from the SaaS era’s more measured growth expectations, typified by the “T2D3″—triple, triple, double, double, double— playbook.
“We share these admittedly freakish new benchmarks to showcase the reality of standout AI startups of the moment,” Bessemer wrote.
Bessemer didn’t name any specific startups. However, the firm said that it came up with this new metric by studying 20 high-growth, durable AI startups across its portfolio and beyond, including Abridge and Cursor.
Escalating Expectations
Bessemer usually releases a “State of the Cloud” report each year. This year, the VC firm changed it to the “State of AI,” a sign of how much generative AI is changing the tech industry, upending cloud computing, and pressuring established software business models.
T2D3 became the north star for SaaS startups during the last decade.
This metric required startups to triple their annualized recurring revenue in the first year, then do it again in their second year. Then, they had to double ARR in the third year, and repeat that feat in years four and five.
In theory, this would get ARR from $1 million or $2 million to more than $100 million in about five or six years — enough to earn a potential valuation of $1 billion.
Bessemer thinks T2D3 is now being rapidly eclipsed by AI-native companies, which are demonstrating unprecedented velocity thanks to generative AI’s unique dynamics: rapid product cycles, explosive user demand, and new distribution channels.
Enter Q2T3, a far more aggressive trajectory. The new benchmark reflects a faster path where AI startups quadruple revenue in years one and two, and triple ARR in each of the next three years, according to Bessemer.
This implies growing ARR from $3 million to more than $100 million in just four years, and then more after that — a feat that redefines what hypergrowth means in a post-ChatGPT world.
“Shooting Stars” vs “Supernovas”
Bessemer’s Q2T3 model is based on a new archetype it calls “Shooting Stars.” These are AI startups that grow meaningfully faster than SaaS counterparts, while maintaining capital efficiency, solid gross margins (~60%), and strong product-market fit.
According to Bessemer, these startups achieve roughly $3 million ARR in their first year of monetization and about $164,000 in ARR per employee.
Some AI startups are growing even faster, hitting $100 million in ARR in about 1.5 years. Bessemer calls these “Supernova” startups.
“These are at once the most exciting and the most terrifying startups we see,” the venture capital firm wrote in its report.
These numbers often come from situations where revenue may be fragile, driven by rapid adoption that may not reflect lasting value. Low switching costs, highly competitive markets, and thinly differentiated products can push profit margins toward zero or below, Bessemer warned.
In contrast, Shooting Stars find product-market fit quickly, retain and expand customer relationships, and maintain strong gross margins—slightly lower than SaaS peers due to faster growth and modest model-related costs. They grow faster on average than their SaaS predecessors, but at rates that still feel anchored to traditional bottlenecks of scaling an organization.
“These businesses might not yet dominate headlines, but they’re beloved by their customers and are on the trajectory to making software history,” Bessemer wrote.
“Freakish” but achievable
While Q2T3 seems “freakish,” the firm said it’s not impossible for AI startups to attain.
Generative AI has drastically compressed time-to-market, with faster development, deployment, and go-to-market cycles, and Bessemer argues that dozens of startups are already proving this curve is within reach.
Still, Q2T3 isn’t for the faint-hearted. Is it a new way to redefine startup success, or a sign of AI frothiness? Only time will tell.
Sign up for BI’s Tech Memo newsletter here. Reach out to me via email at abarr@businessinsider.com.
Business
‘It was a present to myself’: Southport house for sale with ball pit off bedroom | Property

It was the model Cara Delevingne who said you can never be sad in a ball pit – so why wouldn’t you install one in a room you don’t quite know what to do with?
A large Victorian house for sale in Southport has gone viral not because it is, as estate agents say, a “hidden gem” and an “oasis of calm” with viewing “absolutely essential” but because just off the master bedroom is a vestibule that is “presently adorned by numerous plastic balls to create a ball pool all of your very own”.
There are 11,300 plastic balls in the pit and it is enjoyed by children and adults alike, according to Julie Williams, an IT consultant who is selling the house. “It was a birthday present to myself,” Williams said. “Instead of a weekend away I built a ball pit. It is so relaxing.”
Williams was inspired by Delevingne, who installed a ball pit in her former Los Angeles home, described by Architectural Digest as “St-Tropez meets Coney Island meets Cotswolds cottage meets Monte Carlo meets butch leather bar”.
Delevingne said the house reflected her changing characters and moods: it had a costume room for dress-up parties, a poker tent, trampolines, a secret “vagina tunnel”, a party bunker with a mirrored ceiling, a David Bowie memorial bathroom and the ball pit. “If I’m having a bad day, I just hop in the ball pit,” she said. “You can’t really cry in a ball pit.”
Williams said she had thought about creating a bathroom in what she called her “project room” – an odd first-floor vestibule off the master bedroom with its own small staircase.
“My friend had seen a video on YouTube of Carla Delevingne where she says something along the lines of you can never be unhappy or sad in a ball pit.” So Williams went for it, buying 11,300 plastic balls in March 2024 and creating the ball pit herself.
It was inaugurated with Williams and friends drinking half bottles of rosé champagne in it. “It’s great. This is the new relaxation method for mums and dads. Get a ball pit and hide away from the children.”
Williams’ seven-bedroom house in leafy Birkdale village is on the market for £799,995, and if new buyers wanted to keep the pit, plus balls, then they could, Williams said.
The house went viral after featuring on a social media account called Housing Horrors, which shines a light on some of the weirder and more wonderful quirks of houses for sale or rent in the UK.
Business
Net-zero ‘not a platitude’ for oil and gas sector

Kevin KeaneEnvironment, energy and rural affairs correspondent, BBC Scotland

The head of the oil and gas regulator says cutting the sector’s carbon emissions is not “a platitude or a soundbite” but presents significant commercial benefits.
Stuart Payne, who leads the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), told BBC Scotland News the energy transition was “well underway” and has been “for decades”.
His remarks follow a pledge by UK Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch to rid the NSTA of the net-zero “burden” and task it with the sole job of maximising oil and gas production.
Mr Payne said about half of the £100bn expected to be invested in the North Sea over the next few years will be in alternative energies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) and floating wind.
The Conservative leader addressed the huge Offshore Europe conference in Aberdeen later, where around 35,000 delegates will gather for the next four days.
Badenoch said the UK is “sabotaging” itself and that “families, communities, entire towns could be wiped out.”
She promised to scrap the net-zero compatibility tests that come with oil and gas permitting, adding that “we will judge… on one metric alone – how much oil and gas they produce.”
She said there would be no more “judicial overreach … because a judge is persuaded by a pressure group”.
She ended her speech by saying Conservatives will “not be bullied by activists” and “will not surrender Britain’s future.”
The conference is a showcase for the sector where multi-million pound deals are agreed between the supply chain and operators.
Over recent years, the event has pivoted towards alternative energies.

Stuart Payne said the NSTA’s focus on green technologies has already delivered a 34% cut in emissions from producing oil and gas.
However he said there was “much more to do.”
He added: “The words we use matter. How we talk about this industry, whether that’s in the wind side, whether that’s in CCS, in oil and gas, in decommissioning, it matters.
“And it’s vital that we do everything we can to ensure that we’re attracting and retaining investment in all of those things.”
He said it was “not a good thing” for his organisation to be treated like a political football and that “how we talk about this industry” is important.
“The net zero opportunity for the UK is not something that is a platitude or a soundbite,” he added.
“There are real, very significant, commercial benefits for the UK from the projects around net-zero.”
‘Energy independence’
Originally called the Oil and Gas Authority, the regulatory body was renamed by the UK Conservative government in 2022 to reflect its growing role in the wider North Sea energy industry.
The NSTA’s job is to “regulate and influence the oil and gas, offshore hydrogen, and carbon storage industries” as well as holding the sector to account on reducing its operational emissions.
But Kemi Badenoch says she would rename it the “North Sea Authority” with a mandate to “maximise the extraction of our oil and gas.”

Oil and gas production in the North Sea has been in decline for more than 25 years since it peaked in 1999.
Three years ago, an energy profits levy – or windfall tax – was introduced when prices spiked, taking the headline rate of tax on profits to 78%.
The industry has been lobbying for the tax to be cut and says up to a thousand jobs a month are being lost because of the pressures it is under.
It also wants a more “pragmatic” approach to exploration licensing than the UK Labour government’s blanket ban introduced last year.
A government consultation is currently examining the future shape of the North Sea.
Tessa Khan from the environmental campaign group Uplift said the UK has already burned most of its oil and gas.
She added: “The idea we can unleash a golden age of oil and gas is a tired gimmick that’s been tried by Badenoch’s predecessors and flopped.
“The North Sea is a mature basin with dwindling oil and gas reserves.
“It’s like a piñata at the end of a kids party – it doesn’t matter how many times you hit it, you’re not going to get much more out of it.
Business
Who Really Wins From AI? Small Business and These 8.8%+ Dividends

If tariffs really are going to crush the economy, someone forgot to tell the nation’s small businesses! Truth is, these “mom-and-pop shops” are thinking big—and growing.
And we’re here to play this “disconnect” for sweet 8.8%+ dividends.
Small Biz Bullishness by the Numbers
According to the latest survey, in July, 13% of small business owners said their businesses were in “excellent” shape, a five-point gain since June. And 52% said they were in “good” condition (a three-point rise). Only 4% said “poor,” a three-point drop.
The good times look set to keep rolling for these businesses, too: 36% of owners said they see higher sales ahead. That may not sound huge, but it’s a 14-point jump since June—a big swing in just one month.
This report is no outlier: The CNBC SurveyMonkey Small Business Confidence Index tells us that in Q2, 46% of small-business owners said the economy is excellent or good, up sharply from just 30% in the previous quarter!
Small Businesses Are the Real AI Winners
A big slice of that enthusiasm can be chalked up to two letters: AI.
Ask any small business owner about the biggest challenges they face and they’ll likely all say finding good workers. AI helps with that—and it’s a lot cheaper than humans, too!
A few months ago, Shanell Camp, owner of Shaded by Shanell (an up-and-coming beauty brand) explained her excitement to me about ChatGPT, her “go to” resource for brainstorming, marketing help and more.
“I even named him Ace. We are in a full-blown work relationship. That is my best friend, my assistant, my email writer—everything. I use ChatGPT for a lot of stuff in business and it’s very, very helpful.”
Shanell and Ace are a dynamic duo. Together they’re taking on giant beauty brands with much deeper pockets. And they’re doing it without Shanell having to hire.
The numbers back up her AI excitement. According to the US Chamber of Commerce’s Impact of Technology on Small Business Report, 58% of small businesses use the tech. That’s a big jump from 40% last year and 23% in 2023.
More AI use is locked in, as 80% of owners say it will help them grow future sales.
Lower Costs + Higher Sales = Rapid Expansion
You and I both know that when businesses feel bullish, they do one thing: expand. That, of course, requires capital. Where are they going to get the cash?
For years, they’ve bypassed stingy banks and looked to business development companies (BDCs). Bottom line here is when small business cooks, BDC profits sizzle!
Let’s look at two top BDCs to consider as small businesses bulk up. The first is a new player some readers have recently asked about (an 11.3% dividend tends to get their attention!). The other is what I call the “BDC bully”: It doesn’t pay as much (but still a gaudy 8.8%)—but its huge size lets it be very picky about who it lends to.
High-Yield BDC #1: A “New Kid” Crashing the BDC Party
The Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (NYSE:), payer of that 11.3% divvie, has all the markings of an overlooked bargain: It’s new, launched in January 2024; it’s small, with a $1.5-billion market cap, and it’s cheap (of course!) at 86% of book value.
A bargain-priced 11.3% payer? MSDL, you have our attention!
That price-to-book measure only shows the BDC’s price against its physical assets and loan book. It doesn’t account for MSDL’s hidden value—of which there is a lot.
Start with management. As the name says, the BDC is backed by Morgan Stanley (NYSE:), more specifically, by MS Capital Partners Adviser, a Morgan subsidiary. That gives MSDL the expertise and resources of the 90-year-old investment bank—an edge few start-ups can match.
Management knows how to control risk: As of June 1, 96.4% of MSDL’s loans were “first lien.” So if bankruptcy hits one of these borrowers, MSDL is first to be repaid. But the team has taken steps to minimize even that outcome, with a portfolio spread across a range of industries:
Source: MSDL Q2 earnings presentation
The dividend? It’s covered by net investment income (NII), with $0.50 in NII over the last quarter matching the $0.50 quarterly payout.
There’s good reason to think that coverage will improve. Which leads us to interest rates, always a critical factor for BDC profits.
Here too, there’s a “bullish disconnect” for us to exploit. When the Fed cuts its policy rate—pacesetter for the rate at which financial institutions lend to each other—BDC loan income typically declines, especially floating-rate loans, an MSDL specialty (99.6% of its portfolio).
The Fed is likely to cut in September. This seems like bad news, but the crowd is missing the real story, as lower rates drive up loan demand, especially when businesses plan to grow (see small-business optimism above). That helps offset lower loan income and gives BDCs more floating-rate loans (whose income will gain when rates rise again).
MSDL has already grown its loan book, from 192 borrowers a year ago to 214. Its portfolio value has also risen from $3.5 billion to $3.8 billion. I expect that to continue as MSDL establishes itself and small-biz optimism rolls on.
High-Yield BDC #2: A “Bully” Paying a Steady 8.8% Dividend
Those strengths are enough to put MSDL on our Contrarian Income Report watch list. But we prefer portfolio holding Ares Capital (NASDAQ:) for one main reason: scale.
ARCC is the biggest BDC by far, with over $29 billion in assets. This brings a steady stream of deal flow, helping management dictate favorable loan terms.
That’s why Ares is our “BDC bully”: Its size helps ARCC both be picky and grow quickly: As of June 30, it had 566 borrowers, twice MSDL’s number.
As well, delinquent loans were just 1.2% of the portfolio’s value in Q2—healthy for a lender in the “middle-market” credit space (companies with $10 million to $1 billion in sales), like ARCC.
ARCC’s ability to grab the “pick of the litter” among borrowers has also let it build a diverse portfolio, with a lean toward those lower-risk first-lien loans:
ARCC continues to aggressively write new loans at attractive yields. Last quarter, the fund generated NII of $0.49 per share, covering its $0.48 quarterly dividend.
We also have a lot more dividend history to go on here, with ARCC going public more than two decades ago, in 2004. That history is very favorable indeed:
Source: Income Calendar
About 69% of ARCC’s portfolio is floating rate, but management is steering more loans that way, including 96% of the $1.1 billion of new loans written in July. That’s a smart move as future rate cuts spur more small-biz borrowing.
Finally, ARCC trades around 1.1-times book value, fair in light of its dominant position and long history. Sure, we’d like to buy “cheap,” but investors rarely knock our “BDC bully” below 1. So we’ll happily buy here and collect ARCC’s 8.8% payout while we wait for its next run up.
Disclosure: Brett Owens and Michael Foster are contrarian income investors who look for undervalued stocks/funds across the U.S. markets. Click here to learn how to profit from their strategies in the latest report, “7 Great Dividend Growth Stocks for a Secure Retirement.”
-
Business4 days ago
The Guardian view on Trump and the Fed: independence is no substitute for accountability | Editorial
-
Tools & Platforms3 weeks ago
Building Trust in Military AI Starts with Opening the Black Box – War on the Rocks
-
Ethics & Policy1 month ago
SDAIA Supports Saudi Arabia’s Leadership in Shaping Global AI Ethics, Policy, and Research – وكالة الأنباء السعودية
-
Events & Conferences3 months ago
Journey to 1000 models: Scaling Instagram’s recommendation system
-
Jobs & Careers2 months ago
Mumbai-based Perplexity Alternative Has 60k+ Users Without Funding
-
Funding & Business2 months ago
Kayak and Expedia race to build AI travel agents that turn social posts into itineraries
-
Education2 months ago
VEX Robotics launches AI-powered classroom robotics system
-
Podcasts & Talks2 months ago
Happy 4th of July! 🎆 Made with Veo 3 in Gemini
-
Education2 months ago
AERDF highlights the latest PreK-12 discoveries and inventions
-
Podcasts & Talks2 months ago
OpenAI 🤝 @teamganassi