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New data reveals the inadequacy of FEMA flood maps : NPR

More cabins and buildings at Camp Mystic — the tragic site of more than two dozen deaths in the Texas flood — were at risk of flooding than what the federal government had previously reported, according to new analysis from NPR, PBS’s FRONTLINE and data scientists.
Maps by First Street, a climate risk modeling company in New York City, show at least 17 structures in the path of flood waters, compared to maps produced by FEMA, highlighting a longstanding risk facing many Americans. The analysis also shows at least four cabins for young campers were in an area designated by FEMA as an extreme flood hazard, where water moves at its highest velocity and depth.
For decades, FEMA’s maps have failed to take rainfall and flash flooding into account, relying instead on data from coastal storm surges and large river flooding, even as climate change is supercharging rainfall intensity. Nationwide, First Street found more than twice as many Americans live in dangerous flood-prone areas than FEMA’s maps suggest, leaving many homeowners and even local officials unaware of the risk.
“The unknown flood risk is bad from a preparation, financial standpoint, but there’s a human element here that often gets overlooked,” said Jeremy Porter, head of Climate Implications at First Street.
FEMA’s maps can serve as critical warnings to the public about potential danger, but they are also one of the few ways the federal government can require people to take precautionary measures. FEMA requires homeowners in certain flood prone areas to build in ways that could help them withstand a flood, often by elevating their homes.
But in recent years, many properties affected by disasters are turning up outside FEMA’s floodplains. When Hurricane Helene struck western North Carolina last year, 98 percent of the damaged homes were not included in FEMA’s maps. This meant that not only were most homeowners unable to claim flood insurance, most of them had not been obligated to build in a way that could have helped them better survive the storm.
FEMA has known about this problem for years, but the agency lacks the mandate and funding from Congress to address it, according to Porter.
“You think in principle people would say we should have better flood coverage, look what just happened,” Porter says, “but it’s so heavily politicized that you can’t get anybody to bring it forward because they don’t want to be the people that raised flood insurance costs.”
A recent investigation by NPR and FRONTLINE found special interests were also playing a role. Groups like home developers’ associations have lobbied Congress for less flood regulation and in some cases, delays in updating the nation’s flood maps. Developers told NPR they are trying to keep homes affordable.
Outdated FEMA maps played out in a significant way along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County. Using FEMA’s data, First Street found just 2,560 homes at risk in the area. Using their own data, the group discovered more than 4,500 homes were actually in danger.
Even when FEMA does mark the most dangerous flood areas, though, those warnings are not always heeded. At Camp Mystic, NPR found at least eight buildings, including four cabins used to house younger campers, are located inside what FEMA designates a floodway, the most dangerous area of the floodplain where water is expected to move rapidly during a storm.
While many of the camp’s cabins may date back nearly a century, FEMA imposes strict limits on development in these areas, and often outright prohibits it altogether.
“No one should be in a floodway,” says Jim Blackburn, co-director of the Severe Storm Prevention, Education and Evacuation from Disaster Center at Rice University in Houston. “Floodways are the most dangerous of a danger zone.”
A painted broken heart is seen near Camp Mystic along the Guadalupe River in Hunt, Texas, on July 8, 2025, after severe flash flooding over the July 4 holiday weekend.
Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images
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Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images
Camp Mystic’s dining hall, recreation hall, and four cabins all appear to be in the floodway, less than a couple of hundred feet from where the river makes a tight bend.
Blackburn says it’s been difficult to get Texas officials to act on the severity of the threat from floodways and floodplains.
“In Texas, we don’t think the floodplains are that serious,” he says. “We treat floodplains as a kind of good old boy, kind of wink and nod, [as though] it’s environmental red tape. And that’s going to get a lot of people killed.”
Kerr County officials declined NPR’s request for an interview, citing the ongoing emergency. In 2020, the county passed two ordinances to tighten rules on building in high-risk areas and prevent development in floodways. FEMA did not respond to NPR’s request for comment.
Chad Berginnis, head of the Association of State Floodplain Managers, said that recent delays with grants and agreements have impeded state and local efforts to better map flood risk in their communities, adding that cuts from the Trump Administration could make it even harder.
“When I look at the flood map in the area of Camp Mystic, there is a small water course that comes in right there that doesn’t have good flood mapping data,” he says. “The action is simple. Get the notice of federal funding opportunities out and get those grants approved for funding. Those are things right off the bat that the administration could do.”
Blackburn, from Rice University, says it’s no longer helpful for officials to call these events rare, or unpredictable. He says while no one can know which area will be hit next, the risk is known and communities should prepare for a catastrophe.
“It is happening,” he says. “The science is solid. What we need is reasonable decision making based on the best available science and we don’t have that right now.”
NPR Correspondent Rebecca Hersher contributed to this report.
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Live updates: Trump’s UK state visit

Welcome to our live coverage of US President Donald Trump’s administration, including his state visit to the UK.
As we’ve previously reported, this is the president’s second visit to the UK.
Last night, Trump and first lady Melania Trump were greeted at London Stansted Airport by members of the Royal Air Force and British officials, including Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper. The Trumps then spent the evening at Winfield House, the residence of the US ambassador to the UK, Warren A. Stephens.
Guests traveling with the president included his daughter Tiffany Trump and her husband, chief of staff Susie Wiles, deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, and press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
Later today, the president and first lady will travel to Windsor for a ceremonial welcome, lunch with the royal family, an air force flypast, and a lavish state banquet.
Tomorrow, Trump will head to Chequers, the UK prime minister’s country retreat, for a bilateral meeting with Keir Starmer. Initially, the first lady will remain at Windsor, where she will carry out two engagements with Queen Camilla and Catherine, Princess of Wales.
She will later reunite with her husband at Chequers before they fly back to the US.
We’ll keep you up to date with all of the movements today, as they happen.
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American independent cinema owes much to Sundance king Robert Redford | Robert Redford

Robert Redford, who died at the age of 89 on Tuesday, will rightly be remembered as one of Hollywood’s finest leading men, a true-blue movie star and assured actor who was, to quote my mother and surely many others, “very, very handsome”. His many iconic performances – in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, All the President’s Men, The Way We Were, The Sting and more – certainly left an indelible mark on American movies. But he should perhaps be remembered more for his work behind the camera, as the country’s greatest benefactor of independent cinema.
Through his Sundance film festival and non-profit institute, Redford lent his considerable star power and funds to American independent film, and created what is still its most secure and enduring pillar of support. He provided maverick, cutting-edge film-making with a freewheeling marketplace and crucial buzz, helping to launch the careers of a true who’s who of critically acclaimed directors across generations. With Sundance, Redford played the role of mentor, patron, champion of the small and scrappy, benevolent godfather of independent cinema. It’s through Sundance, rather than his films, that Redford became, as the Black List founder Franklin Leonard put it on X, “arguably the film industry’s most consequential American over the last fifty years”.
Redford founded the Sundance Institute, named after his character in the 1969 film, in 1981, as a means to support risk-taking voices outside the Hollywood studio system. The mission was loose, but grounded in the then 44-year-old actor’s real frustration with the movie business. “We started this with no rigid expectations,” Redford told the critic Roger Ebert at an early iteration of the film festival in 1981. “I have no idea what this will turn out to be. I know that it’s getting increasingly hard to get a movie well distributed in this country unless it has the potential to make millions of dollars.” As an alternative experiment, Redford invited 10 screenwriters to develop their low-budget scripts at a cabin in Utah’s Wasatch mountains, where the reclusive star had purchased land and made his home.
The tiny Sundance Institute grew into a small festival after Redford purchased the struggling Utah/US film festival in 1984. By 1989, when Steven Soderbergh’s Sex, Lies and Videotape premiered at what had become an annual January gathering in Park City, the Sundance film festival (as it was renamed in 1991) represented the creative vanguard. Some of the most influential and enduring films of the 1990s came out of the festival – Reservoir Dogs, Before Sunrise and The Blair Witch Project, as well as the documentaries Hoop Dreams and Paris Is Burning.
The festival has built a reputation as a pipeline of diverse talent; top directors such as Quentin Tarantino, Richard Linklater, Chloé Zhao, Ava DuVernay, Ryan Coogler, Nicole Holofcener, David O Russell, Darren Aronofsky, the Daniels and Celine Song have all been nurtured at some point in their early career by Sundance. In 2022, Coda, directed by Sian Heder with a $10m budget, became the first festival premiere to win the best picture Oscar. “Coda came to the attention of everyone because of Sundance,” its star Marlee Matlin posted on X. “And Sundance happened because of Robert Redford.”
Alongside its renegade narrative features, the festival has also become the go-to destination for hot-button documentaries, particularly those grappling with tough, timely subjects. The documentary streaming boom arguably began at the festival in 2017, when Netflix purchased Icarus, a film on the Russian doping scandal that went on to win the Oscar – Netflix’s first – for a then staggering sum of $5m. For several years after, the festival was a hot marketplace for documentaries large and small. Celebrities such as Taylor Swift, Brooke Shields and Michael J Fox debuted films about them in Utah; documentaries on such figures as Christopher Reeves, the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny and Hillary Clinton generated international headlines and commanded ever-larger sums. Though the market has cooled, the festival remains an incubator for pressing documentaries – this year saw films on Florida’s stand-your-ground laws, abysmal Alabama prisons and US book bans in schools – as well as awards. Institute-supported documentaries have won a total of 20 Oscars; all but one of last year’s best documentary nominees premiered at the festival.
With mainstream acclaim come major celebrities, and with celebrities come crowds, sponsors and influencers. Starting in the 2010s, the festival has been as synonymous with celebrities in trendy winter wear, long lines and pop-up brand houses as independent film. After years of logistical issues – what once drew a few hundred cinephiles to the mountains now courts upwards of 85,000 visitors every January – the festival announced earlier this year that it would relocate in 2027 to Boulder, Colorado.
But the institute has remained true to Redford’s founding mission. According to Sundance, more than 11,000 early career artists have received support since its founding, in the form of grants, labs, intensive programs, mentorship and fellowships. I personally know film-makers and writers who have applied to the lab, considered the pinnacle of early-stage mentorship, an imprimatur of taste and trust. And since the establishment of its Native American and Indigenous program in 1994, the non-profit remains one of the pre-eminent supporters of Indigenous film talent too-long ignored by institutional Hollywood. The program’s grants, labs and community have helped launch the careers of Chris Eyre (whose film Smoke Signals premiered in 1998), Reservation Dogs’ Sterlin Harjo and Taika Waititi.
In his later years, Redford often groused about the mainstreaming of the festival to which he devoted nearly half his life; “I want the ambush marketers – the vodka brands and the gift-bag people and the Paris Hiltons – to go away forever,” he told a reporter during the 2012 festival. It is true that the festival is not the iconoclastic upstart it once was, and that the festival produces a few imitative “Sundance movies” – spare, underwritten dramas with beautiful vistas and natural light – every year. But the impact of Sundance – in time, in space, in mentorship, money and community – is incalculable to the landscape of American cinema. Redford’s goal, as he said in his 2002 honorary Oscar speech, was to “make sure the freedom of artistic expression is nurtured and kept alive”. With 40 years of stewardship at Sundance, Robert Redford has done more than most to ensure that it will.
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Main suspect in Madeleine McCann case due to be released from German prison | Germany

The main suspect in the disappearance of Madeleine McCann is expected to be freed on Wednesday as German authorities admit they no longer have legal justification to hold him in jail.
Christian Brückner, 49, is due to be released from prison in Sehnde, northern Germany, after serving a sentence for the rape of an American woman, then 72 years old, in Portugal in 2005.
The rape took place in Praia da Luz, the holiday resort on the southern Portuguese coast where the three-year-old British toddler disappeared 18 months later.
German prosecutors say that Brückner, a German national, remains their prime suspect in the disappearance, which they are treating as a murder inquiry. British police call him a suspect in their investigation, which they continue to treat as a missing-persons case.
Madeleine went missing on 3 May 2007 while on holiday with her parents. She vanished from the ground-floor apartment where the family was staying, while her parents were at a restaurant close by. Her young twin siblings had been in the room with her.
Hans Christian Wolters, a lead investigator in the case, reiterated in a recent interview his belief that Brückner was responsible for the girl’s disappearance. “We believe that he is responsible for the disappearance of Madeleine McCann and that he killed Madeleine McCann,” he said in a recent statement.
Prosecutors have urged authorities to ensure Brückner is fitted with an electronic ankle tag so that his movements can be tracked, but it is unclear whether the court will agree to this. They have also requested that Brückner relinquish his passport and report regularly to authorities, citing fears that he might try to leave the country.
German police have been investigating Brückner since 2017. State prosecutors have said they have circumstantial evidence indicating his possible involvement in Madeleine’s disappearance. These include that his mobile phone was on and logged in in the area where she vanished, and the sworn testimony of three witnesses who say he confessed to them.
After being alerted about Brückner following a TV crime programme in Germany that called for information a decade after the child’s disappearance, the federal criminal police office named him as a suspect in 2020. They revealed he had convictions going back decades for child sex offences and other crimes, including drug trafficking, burglary and petty theft.
Brückner had lived in the Algarve region of Portugal between 1995 and 2007, and had worked at the Praia da Luz resort as a pool maintenance assistant.
Last autumn, Brückner was cleared by a court in the northern German city of Braunschweig of several unrelated sexual offences, alleged to have occurred between 2000 and 2017. He has consistently denied any involvement in Madeleine’s disappearance.
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Ahead of Brückner’s release, his lawyer, Friedrich Fülscher, said in a statement that no comment would be made to the media outside the prison either by him or Brückner.
Brückner has refused a request by British authorities, made through an “international letter of request”, for an interview on his release.
DCI Mark Cranwell, a senior investigating officer for London’s Metropolitan police, said the request had been “refused by the suspect”. He added that the Met would “nevertheless continue to pursue any viable lines of inquiry”.
After completing his seven-anda-half-year sentence for the 2005 rape, Brückner had been expected to stay behind bars until January 2026 because of his owing €1,447 (£1,253) in fines for a separate offence. However, a former police officer who had worked on the investigation into Brückner paid the fine because, she has said, she “felt sorry” for him. She has since said she made a mistake.
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