Is the dollar’s drop a sign of America’s financial decline? : NPR

Published

2 months ago

July 7, 2025

The Editors

The dollar has slumped more than 10% against other major currencies, marking its worst first-half a year since 1973.

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Daniel Munoz/AFP via Getty Images

There’s perhaps no better symbolic representation of America’s financial might than the U.S. dollar. And right now, the world’s top currency is taking a big, mighty punch.

Something rare is happening on Wall Street: Stocks, bonds and the dollar are all falling at the same time — and investors are debating why.

The dollar has slumped more than 10% this year, posting its worst decline in the first six months of a year since 1973, back when President Nixon shocked the world by detaching the dollar’s value from gold.

The decline reverses a long stretch of annual gains for the dollar — and it’s especially confounding given that the U.S. economy is still doing well.

“America was already great,” says Kaspar Hense, a senior portfolio manager at RBC BlueBay Asset Management.

“We are coming from a very strong dollar level where U.S. exceptionalism was what everybody was speaking about in financial markets,” he adds.

Many investors now fear the decline could reflect a new reality for the U.S., just after the country celebrated its 249th birthday.

A series of chaotic policies and statements by Trump — from tariffs to attacking the Federal Reserve — has shaken some of the confidence investors around the world had long held in the U.S.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., holds up the vote total as he delivers remarks alongside fellow House Republicans after passing President Trump's sweeping domestic policy bill on Thursday.

But it goes beyond that. The country’s debt is ballooning — and will grow even more with the GOP megabill that was passed by Congress last week. Meanwhile, there are real concerns about what the deep political divisions will mean for the U.S.

The big question now is: Does this re-assessment reflect a long-term shift or just a momentary blip?

The case against the American dollar

Whether one agrees or disagrees with President Trump, one thing is clear: His second term is shaping up to be quite different — and it’s unnerving many investors, both in the U.S. and abroad.

The chaotic rollout of tariffs has led to widespread uncertainty across businesses in the U.S. and around the world.

But President Trump has also disregarded other norms. He’s picked a fight with the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell over interest rates, for example, upending a tradition upheld by most American presidents not to interfere with the independence of the central bank.

And at a time when there are already serious concerns about the country’s finances President Trump on Independence Day signed a massive bill passed by Congress last week that will rack up trillions of dollars in additional debt.

Of course, the U.S. debt load has been rising significantly for years ever since President Clinton and Congress managed to balance the budget in the 1990s.

Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, and now a professor at Harvard, says those years of inaction to deal with the rising debt levels are contributing to the dollar’s decline.

“How much do investors want to be overweight in dollars when they can sort of see this slow-motion train wreck coming?,” he asks. “While I wouldn’t read too much into the dollar’s fall this year, there is no question that there is this broader underlying trend of moving away from the dollar — and Trump’s been an accelerant.”

President Trump, joined by Republican lawmakers, signs the “One, Big Beautiful Bill Act,” a massive spending and tax bill, at the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C. on July 4, 2025.

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Foreign investors have indeed responded — by selling American stocks and bonds, which has pushed the dollar sharply lower. That’s because when a foreign investors dump shares in a company for example, they then effectively sell the dollar and convert it back to their home currency.

A widely followed survey by Bank of America of fund managers around the world reflects this selling quite starkly. Fund managers had preferred U.S. stocks over international stocks for most of the past two decades — but that’s changed this year.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 21: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on May 21, 2025 in New York City.

But the latest survey out in mid-June showed a startling statistic: Only 23% now preferred U.S. stocks.

That’s amply reflected in how stocks around the world have performed this year.

Yes, the S&P has just hit record highs, recovering from steep losses earlier this year, helped by a good performance in sectors like technology. But consider this: Even with the most recent gains the S&P 500 — representing the biggest 500 companies in the U.S. — is up more than 6% this year.

However, that compares to both Germany’s DAX index and Hong Kon’s Hang Seng Index, which are up nearly 20% this year as of the end of last week. Several other international stock markets have also gained significantly.

The case for the American dollar

Not everybody is convinced that the dollar’s decline is an alarming trend.

Under this thinking, the U.S. has gotten used to outperforming global markets for years, so a months-long reversal is not necessarily catastrophic. It’s just a re-adjustment that had been coming.

And then there’s a long-held market adage: TINA, as in, There Is No Alternative.

The dollar is by far the most widely-held currency in the world, used by everybody from governments to multinational companies to drug cartels.

And there’s no bigger and more diverse market than the U.S., whether it be stocks or government bonds.

A trader works in front of a board displaying the chart of Germany’s DAX index at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, on April 7, 2025. German stocks have surged this year, outpacing gains in the U.S.

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Daniel Roland/AFP via Getty Images

There are also benefits to a weaker dollar.

Yes, a weaker dollar makes it more expensive for Americans to travel abroad, but it’s good domestic tourism, while exporters like Apple, which earns a substantial portion of its revenue from countries abroad.

And American companies that have long faced cheaper imports would get a bit of a boost. The weaker dollar would make foreign products a little more expensive — even more so when tariffs kick in — giving domestic manufacturers a major leg up.

A photo of the top-right corners of five $100 bills, held fanned out, like playing cards.

“There’s a temptation for a lot of people to think of the strength of your currency as some sort of national virility symbol,” says Kit Juckes, the Chief FX Strategist at Societe Generale. “It really isn’t.”

“You shouldn’t expect to have a super, super, super strong currency forever,” Juckes adds, citing the impact on workers in sectors such as manufacturing or agriculture that become less competitive when the dollar is strong.

Currencies like the euro or yuan could challenge the dollar’ dominance

So then, what’s next for the dollar? That, as it turns out, is the trillion-dollar question

Despite the dollar’s steep decline this year, few analysts are willing to make sweeping judgements about what it symbolizes for the U.S. At least, not yet.

But the concerns remain about whether the dollar’s decline is a reflection of a long-term reassessment of the U.S. financial standing in the world — and a sign that the overwhelming dominance of the dollar might be coming to an end.

Rogoff, who recently authored the book “Our Dollar, Your Problem,” says the U.S. has long depended on foreign investments as a critical source of capital, investments that have helped make the dollar the world’s reserve currency.

President Trump addresses the Bitcoin 2024 conference at Music City Center in Nashville when he was still a candidate.

But as the U.S. faces entrenched problems like surging debt levels, perceptions about the U.S. could change.

“The dollar franchise isn’t gone, but it’s weakening materially,” he says.

Rogoff believes that over the next 10-20 years the world will see “a more tri-polar system” as the euro, the Chinese yuan, and even crypto currencies, emerge to challenge the dollar’s dominance.

“The dollar’s reserve currency status has been fraying at the edges for at least a decade,” Rogoff says. “And the process is accelerating under Trump.”

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Trump news at a glance: Anxiety in Chicago as Trump plans to send troops; postal traffic into US drops 80% | Trump administration

Published

1 hour ago

September 7, 2025

Guardian staff reporter

At least three events connected to Mexican Independence Day have been canceled or postponed in Chicago, amid reports that Donald Trump plans to send troops and immigration agents as part of plans to launch mass deportations.

Organizers decided to cancel El Grito Chicago, an event that drew 24,000 people last year and was scheduled for 13-14 September.

“It was a painful decision, but holding El Grito Chicago at this time puts the safety of our community at stake – and that’s a risk we are unwilling to take,” the event’s website stated. “While we’re torn by this decision, when we brought this celebration back, our aim was to create a safe, affordable, family-friendly, community festival for all.”

The anxiety in the country’s third-largest city comes after Trump deployed national guard troops to Los Angeles and Washington DC. Illinois governor JB Pritzker said he was concerned about Ice agents targeting people at the Mexican Independence Day events.

Here’s the day’s Trump administration news at a glance.

Mexican festivals in Chicago canceled amid Trump plans to deploy troops

Donald Trump’s plan to deploy national guard troops and federal immigration agents to Chicago is already having an impact on the city’s Mexican community.

Organizers have canceled several local events tied to Mexican Independence Day, which occurs on 16 September.

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Trump claims Chicago is ‘world’s most dangerous city’. The most violent ones are in red states

As Donald Trump threatens to deploy national guard units to cities ostensibly to quell violence, he repeatedly targets Democratic run-cities.

But an analysis of crime trends over the last four years shows two things. First, violent crime rates in America’s big cities have been falling over the last two years, and at an even greater rate over the last six months. The decrease in violence in America is unprecedented.

Second, crime in large cities in the aggregate is lower in states with Democratic leadership. But the president focuses his ire almost exclusively on large blue cities in blue states, sidestepping political conflict with red Republican governors.

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Postal traffic into US plunges by more than 80% after Trump ends exemption

Postal traffic into the US plunged by more than 80% after the Trump administration ended a tariff exemption for low-cost imports, the United Nations postal agency said Saturday.

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Rightwing conference reveals muddled lines between Trump and far right

A rightwing conference recently saw theocratic Christian nationalists, far-right publishers and members of men-only secret societies speaking alongside the Missouri senator Eric Schmitt, the assistant attorney general for civil rights at Donald Trump’s Department of Justice and other senior Republican figures.

The speaker list at the National Conservatism conference in Washington DC raises questions over what distinctions exist between the nationalist hard right in the US and members of the Trump administration and the Republican party.

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Trump administration begins new Ice operation in Massachusetts

The Trump administration has targeted Massachusetts as its next location to begin arresting and deporting immigrants, a Department of Homeland Security official confirmed to NBC News on Saturday.

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What else happened today:

Catching up? Here’s what happened on Friday 5 September.

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Yoshinobu Yamamoto no-hit bid broken up by Jackson Holliday homer in 9th inning, sparking Orioles walk-off

Published

1 hour ago

September 7, 2025

Kari Anderson

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was this close to getting the first no-hitter of the 2025 MLB season. Instead, the Los Angeles Dodgers blew a 3-0 lead and allowed the Baltimore Orioles to get a gutting walk-off win.

Yamamoto was one out from making history, going hitless through 8.2 innings. But Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday had other plans: The 21-year-old broke up the no-no at the last second, with a solo homer to deep right field in the bottom of the ninth.

Yamamoto, who had racked up 112 pitches, was immediately taken out of the game and replaced by reliever Blake Treinen. He received a standing ovation as he exited.

But Yamamoto couldn’t even record a win on the game. With Treinen on the mound, the Orioles filled the bases, giving Baltimore another run after a walk. Tanner Scott, who replaced Treinen, then blew the save, allowing Emmanuel Rivera to get a walk-off RBI single that sent Jorge Mateo and Gunnar Henderson home.

Even with the homer, Yamamoto had a career night, throwing 10 strikeouts in the outing. He also passed seven innings for the first time in his MLB career, nearly getting his first complete game since joining the Dodgers in 2024.

Prior to allowing Holliday’s homer in the ninth, Los Angeles built up a 3-0 lead behind a Shohei Ohtani RBI single in the third and a pair of RBIs (a single and a triple) from Mookie Betts in the fifth and seventh innings.

In the end, that wasn’t enough, as the Orioles took advantage in the ninth inning to get a dramatic walk-off win.

Though it would have been Yamamoto’s first MLB no-hitter, he’s accomplished the feat twice before in his career: The 27-year-old threw no-hitters in two consecutive seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball, while playing for the Orix Buffaloes.

Instead, the Dodgers will have to contend with their fifth straight loss. After being swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates last week, Los Angeles is in danger of the same thing happening in Baltimore.

Despite a number of close calls, MLB still hasn’t seen its first no-hitter of the year, even as the season reaches September. Texas Rangers ace Jacob DeGrom got close in June, but it was broken up in the eighth; that same month, Cincinnati Reds starter Nick Martinez had his bid dashed in the ninth. The New York Yankees spoiled a no-hit bid from the Seattle Mariners’ Bryan Woo in July, and the New York Mets’ Juan Soto’s ninth-inning homer broke up a near no-hitter from Cleveland Guardians righty Gavin Williams in August. A few weeks ago, the Orioles nearly got a perfect game from rookie Brandon Young that was spoiled in the eighth.

Compare this to last year, where there were four no-hitters, including a combined no-no last September from the Chicago Cubs. For now, the league will just have to keep waiting.

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Creative Arts Emmys 2025 Winners List

Published

2 hours ago

September 7, 2025

Lynette Rice

Julianne Nicholson (Hacks), Bryan Cranston (The Studio) and Merritt Wever (Severance) were among the winners during night one of 2025 Creative Arts EmmyAwards at the Peacock Theater in downtown Los Angeles.

Emmys were also given to Arcane for Outstanding Animation, The Pitt, The Studio and Adolescence for casting and to The Penguin for hairstyling, costumes, prosthetic makeup, visual effects, sound editing and sound mixing. Andor also racked up trophies for costumes, production design, picture editing and special visual effects.

Maya Rudolph kicked off night one by saying, “This is the real Emmys. This is the Emmys for the people who make all the magic happen … this is a room full of talented baddies.”

One of the highlights of the night was when Bridgerton took the Emmy for Outstanding Costumes and winner John Walter Glaser’s pants kept falling down (but not to his knees, mercifully). And Desi Lydic, who won in the Performer in a Short Form Comedy category, admitted to having to watch “too much Fox News” to win the award. She went on to thank “the Deep State” TV Academy.

And Hacks‘ Robby Hoffman vaped on stage before announcing the winner for cinematography.

The Creative Arts Emmys will continue Sunday with an additional 49 statues to be distributed in the writing, casting, makeup and picture editing categories.

The Creative Arts Emmys won’t air live, but they are set to run on FXX Saturday, Sept. 13 at 8 p.m. ET and PT, the night before the Primetime Emmys. The Creative Arts Emmys will also be available to stream on Hulu until Oct. 7.

Here are the winners from night one. Keep refreshing for the latest:

GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Julianne Nicholson, Hacks

CONTEMPORARY MAKEUP (NON-PROSTHETIC)
The Penguin

PROSTHETIC MAKEUP
The Penguin

PERIOD OR FANTASY/SCI-FI MAKEUP (NON-PROTHETIC)
House of the Dragon

PERIOD COSTUMES
Bridgerton

CONTEMPORARY COSTUMES FOR A SERIES
The Studio

CONTEMPORARY COSTUMES FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
The Penguin

FANTASY/SCI-FI COSTUMES
Andor

PERIOD OR FANTASY/SCI-FI HAIRSTYLING
Bridgerton

CONTEMPORARY HAIRSTYLING
The Penguin

PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A NARRATIVE CONTEMPORARY PROGRAM (ONE HOUR OR MORE)
Severance

PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A NARRATIVE PROGRAM (HALF-HOUR)
The Studio

PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A NARRATIVE PERIOD OR FANTASY PROGRAM (ONE-HOUR OR MORE)
Andor

CASTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
The Pitt

GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Bryan Cranston, The Studio

CASTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
The Studio

CASTING FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Adolescence

STUNT COORDINATION FOR COMEDY PROGRAMMING
The Righteous Gemstones

STUNT COORDINATION FOR DRAMA PROGRAMMING
The Boys

STUNT PERFORMANCE
The Boys

ANIMATED PROGRAM
Arcane

CHARACTER VOICE-OVER PERFORMANCE
Julie Andrews, Bridgerton

INDIVIDUAL ACHIEVEMENT IN ANIMATION (juried)
Arcane, background design
Arcane, color
Love, Death + Robots, Production Design
Love, Death + Robots, Character Animation
Love, Death + Robots, Character Design

CHOREOGRAPHY FOR SCRIPTED PROGRAMMING
Étoile

PICTURE EDITING FOR A SINGLE-CAMERA COMEDY SERIES
The Studio

PICTURE EDITING FOR A MULTI-CAMERA COMEDY SERIES
Frasier

GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Merritt Wever, Severance

PICTURE EDITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Andor

PICTURE EDITING FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Monsters: The Lyle & Erik Menendez Story

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS IN A SEASON OR A MOVIE
Andor

TITLE DESIGN
Severance

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS IN A SINGLE EPISODE
The Penguin

MOTION DESIGN (juried)
Octopus!

SOUND EDITING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES
The Last of Us

SOUND EDITING FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES, MOVIE OR SPECIAL
The Penguin

SOUND EDITING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (HALF-HOUR)
The Studio

SOUND EDITING FOR AN ANIMATED PROGRAM
Arcane

SOUND MIXING FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
The Penguin

SOUND MIXING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (ONE HOUR)
Severance

SOUND MIXING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (HALF-HOUR) AND ANIMATION
The Studio

PERFORMER IN A SHORT FORM COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES
Desi Lydic, The Daily Show

MUSIC COMPOSITION FOR A SERIES (ORIGINAL DRAMATIC SCORE)
Severance

MUSIC COMPOSITION FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES, MOVIE OR SPECIAL (ORIGINAL DRAMATIC SCORE)
The Penguin

ORIGINAL MAIN TITLE THEME MUSIC
The White Lotus

MUSIC SUPERVISION
The Studio

ORIGINAL MUSIC AND LYRICS
The Boys, “Let’s Put the Christ Back in Christmas”

CINEMATOGRAPHY FOR A SERIES (HALF-HOUR)
The Studio

CINEMATOGRAPHY FOR A SERIES (ONE HOUR)
Severance