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ICASSP: Michael I. Jordan’s “alternative view on AI”

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Intelligence is notoriously hard to define, but when most people (including computer scientists) think about it, they construe it on the model of human intelligence: an information-processing capacity that allows an autonomous agent to act upon the world.

Michael I. Jordan, the Pehong Chen Distinguished Professor in both the computer science and statistics departments at UC Berkeley, and a Distinguished Amazon Scholar.

But Michael I. Jordan, the Pehong Chen Distinguished Professor in both the computer science and statistics departments at the University of California, Berkeley, and a Distinguished Amazon Scholar, thinks that that’s too narrow a concept of intelligence.

“Swarms of ants are intelligent, in the sense that they can build ant hills and share food, even though each individual ant is not thinking about hills or sharing,” Jordan says. “Economists have taken this perspective further, with their focus on the tasks accomplished by markets. Accomplishing those tasks is by some definition a reflection of intelligence. A market that brings food into, say, New York every day is an intelligent entity. It’s akin to a brain, and it’s important to remember that a brain is a loosely coupled collection of neurons that are each performing relatively simple functions. Analogously, a bunch of loosely coupled decisions made by producers, suppliers, and consumers constitute a market that is a form of intelligence. A grand challenge is to marry this kind of intelligence with the form of intelligence that arises from learning from data.”

Jordan argues that distributed, social intelligence is better suited to meeting human needs than the type of autonomous general intelligence we associate with the Terminator movies or Marvel’s Ultron. By the same token, he says, AI’s goals should be formulated at the level of the collective, not the level of the individual agent.

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Amazon Science hosts a conversation with Amazon Scholars Michael I. Jordan and Michael Kearns and Amazon distinguished scientist Bernhard Schölkopf.

“A good engineer is supposed to think about the overall goal of the system you’re building,” Jordan says. “If your overall goal is diffuse — create intelligence, and somehow it will solve problems — that’s not good enough.

“What machine learning and network data do is bring people together in new ways to share data, to share services with each other, and to create new kinds of markets, new kinds of social collectives. Building systems like that is a perfectly reasonable engineering goal. Real-world examples are easy to find in domains such as transportation, commerce, health care. Those are not best analyzed as some super-intelligence coming in to help you solve problems. Rather, they’re best analyzed as, Hey, we’re designing a new system that has new kinds of data flows that were never present before and there’s a need to aggregate and integrate those flows in various ways, with the overall goal of serving individuals according to their utilities.”

New signals

At this year’s International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing (ICASSP), Jordan will elaborate on these ideas in a plenary talk titled “An alternative view on AI: Collaborative learning, incentives, and social welfare”. ICASSP might seem like an odd venue for so expansive a talk, but Jordan argues — again — that that’s only if you rely on an overly restricted definition.

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“You can make signal processing very narrow, and then it’s, how do you do compression, how do you get high-fidelity recordings, and so on,” he says. “But those are all the engineering challenges of the past. In emerging domains, the notion of what constitutes a signal is broader. Signals are often coming from humans, and they often have semantic content. Moreover, when people interact with an economic relationship in mind, they signal to each other in various ways: What am I willing to pay for this? And what is someone else willing to pay? Markets are full of signals. Machine learning can create new vocabularies for signaling. 

“So part of the story here is going to be to say, hey, signal-processing folks, it’s not just about the data and the algorithms and the statistics. It’s about a broader conception of signals. Signal processing isn’t just about the processing and streaming of bits but about what these bits are being used for and what market forces they can set in motion. I definitely would hope to convince signal-processing people to think ambitiously about what the scope of the field can be.”

Statistical contract theory

One of the tools that Jordan and his Berkeley research group are using to make markets more intelligent is what they call statistical contract theory. Classical contract theory investigates markets with information asymmetries: for instance, a seller doesn’t know how potential buyers value a particular good, but the buyers themselves do.

Michael I. Jordan on AI, statistical contract theory, and prediction-powered inference.

The goal is to devise a menu of contracts that balances out the asymmetries. An example is tiered-class seating on airplanes: some customers will contract to pay higher fares for more room and better food; some customers will contract to forego those advantages in exchange for lower fares. The seller doesn’t have to know in advance which population is which; the populations are self-selecting.

In statistical contract theory, Jordan explains, the contracts have statistical analyses embedded within them. The example he likes to use is the drug approval process.

“The job of the regulatory agency is to decide which drugs go to market,” Jordan says. “And it’s partially a statistical problem: You have a drug candidate, and it may or may not be effective on humans. You don’t know a priori. So you do an A/B test. You bring in people, and you either give them the treatment, or you give them a control, and you see if there has been an improvement.

“The problem is that there are more players in this game. The drug candidates are not coming just from nature or from the agency itself. There are these third-party agents, which are the pharmaceutical companies, that are generating drug candidates. They can generate tens of thousands of them, which would be far too expensive to test.

“The agency has no idea whether a candidate is good or bad before they run their clinical trial. But the pharmaceutical company knows a little more. They know how they develop the candidates, and maybe they did some internal testing. So there you have your asymmetry. The agency can’t just ask the pharmaceutical company, Hey, is that candidate good or not? Because the pharmaceutical company is just hoping that it passes the screening and gets onto the market and they make some money.

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Michael I. Jordan, Amazon Scholar and professor at the University of California, Berkeley, writes about the classical goals in human-imitative AI, and reflects on how in the current hubbub over the AI revolution it is easy to forget that these goals haven’t yet been achieved.

“The solution is something we call statistical contract theory, and hopefully, it will begin to emerge as a new field. The mathematical ingredients are again menus of options, including license fees, durations of licenses, sizes of the trials, and so on. And every drug company gets to look at that same menu for every possible drug. They make a selection, and then nature reveals an outcome via a clinical trial.

“In the selection process, the drug company is revealing something. The drug company says, hey, on this candidate drug, I know it’s really good, so I’m going to take ‘business class’. And now you kind of revealed something to the agency. But the agency doesn’t use that information directly; they set up a contract a priori, and you made your selection. We have a new mathematical theory that exactly addresses that kind of design problem and, hopefully, a range of other problems.”

Prediction-powered inference

Another tool that Jordan’s group has been developing is called prediction-powered inference.

“How do I use neural nets not just to make good predictions but to make good confidence intervals?” Jordan says. “The problem is that even if these predictions are very accurate, they still make big errors in some instances, and those can conspire to yield biased confidence intervals. We have this new technique called prediction-powered inference that addresses this problem.

“Classical bias correction would be just that I estimate the bias, and I correct the original estimate for the bias to get a more unbiased estimator. What we’re doing is different. We’re estimating not the bias but a confidence interval on all the possible biases. And then we’re using that confidence interval to do all possible adjustments of the original value to get a confidence interval on the true parameter. So we don’t just get a better predictive estimate; we get a whole confidence interval that has a high probability of covering the truth. It is able to use all of these biased predictions from the neural net and nonetheless provide an interval that has a guarantee of covering the truth. It’s kind of almost magical that it can be done. But it can.”





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A New Ranking Framework for Better Notification Quality on Instagram

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  • We’re sharing how Meta is applying machine learning (ML) and diversity algorithms to improve notification quality and user experience. 
  • We’ve introduced a diversity-aware notification ranking framework to reduce uniformity and deliver a more varied and engaging mix of notifications.
  • This new framework reduces the volume of notifications and drives higher engagement rates through more diverse outreach.

Notifications are one of the most powerful tools for bringing people back to Instagram and enhancing engagement. Whether it’s a friend liking your photo, another close friend posting a story, or a suggestion for a reel you might enjoy, notifications help surface moments that matter in real time.

Instagram leverages machine learning (ML) models to decide who should get a notification, when to send it, and what content to include. These models are trained to optimize for user positive engagement such as click-through-rate (CTR) – the probability of a user clicking a notification – as well as other metrics like time spent.

However, while engagement-optimized models are effective at driving interactions, there’s a risk that they might overprioritize the product types and authors someone has previously engaged with. This can lead to overexposure to the same creators or the same product types while overlooking other valuable and diverse experiences. 

This means people could miss out on content that would give them a more balanced, satisfying, and enriched experience. Over time, this can make notifications feel spammy and increase the likelihood that people will disable them altogether. 

The real challenge lies in finding the right balance: How can we introduce meaningful diversity into the notification experience without sacrificing the personalization and relevance people on Instagram have come to expect?

To tackle this, we’ve introduced a diversity-aware notification ranking framework that helps deliver more diverse, better curated, and less repetitive notifications. This framework has significantly reduced daily notification volume while improving CTR. It also introduces several benefits:

  • The extensibility of incorporating customized soft penalty (demotion) logic for each dimension, enabling more adaptive and sophisticated diversity strategies.
  • The flexibility of tuning demotion strength across dimensions like content, author, and product type via adjustable weights.
  • The integration of balancing personalization and diversity, ensuring notifications remain both relevant and varied.

The Risks of Notifications without Diversity

The issue of overexposure in notifications often shows up in two major ways:

Overexposure to the same author: People might receive notifications that are mostly about the same friend. For example, if someone often interacts with content from a particular friend, the system may continue surfacing notifications from that person alone – ignoring other friends they also engage with. This can feel repetitive and one-dimensional, reducing the overall value of notifications.

Overexposure to the same product surface: People might mostly receive notifications from the same product surface such as Stories, even when Feed or Reels could provide value. For example, someone may be interested in both reel and story notifications but has recently interacted more often with stories. Because the system heavily prioritizes past engagement, it sends only story notifications, overlooking the person’s broader interests. 

Introducing Instagram’s Diversity-Aware Notification Ranking Framework

Instagram’s diversity-aware notification ranking framework is designed to enhance the notification experience by balancing the predicted potential for user engagement with the need for content diversity. This framework introduces a diversity layer on top of the existing engagement ML models, applying multiplicative penalties to the candidate scores generated by these models, as figure1, below, shows.

The diversity layer evaluates each notification candidate’s similarity to recently sent notifications across multiple dimensions such as content, author, notification type, and product surface. It then applies carefully calibrated penalties—expressed as multiplicative demotion factors—to downrank candidates that are too similar or repetitive. The adjusted scores are used to re-rank the candidates, enabling the system to select notifications that maintain high engagement potential while introducing meaningful diversity. In the end, the quality bar selects the top-ranked candidate that passes both the ranking and diversity criteria.

Figure.1: Instagram’s diversity-aware ranking framework where the diversity layer sits on top of the existing modeling layer and penalizes notifications that are too similar to recently sent ones.

Mathematical Formulation 

Within the diversity layer, we apply a multiplicative demotion factor to the base relevance score of each candidate. Given a notification candidate 𝑐, we compute its final score as the product of its base ranking score and a diversity demotion multiplier:

\text{Score}(c) = R(c) \times D(c)

where R(c) represents the candidate’s base relevance score, and D(c) ∈ [0,1] is a penalty factor that reduces the score based on similarity to recently sent notifications. We define a set of semantic dimensions (e.g., author, product type) along which we want to promote diversity. For each dimension i, we compute a similarity signal pi(c) between candidate c and the set of historical notifications H, using a maximal marginal relevance (MMR) approach:

p_i(c) = \mathrm{max}_{h \in H}\mathrm{sim}_i(c, h)

where simi(·,·) is a predefined similarity function for dimension i. In our baseline implementation, pi(c) is binary: it equals 1 if the similarity exceeds a threshold 𝜏i and 0 otherwise. 

The final demotion multiplier is defined as: 

D(c) = \prod_{i=1}^{m} \left( 1 - w_i \cdot p_i(c) \right)

where each w∈ [0,1] controls the strength of demotion for its respective dimension. This formulation ensures that candidates similar to previously delivered notifications along one or more dimensions are proportionally down-weighted, reducing redundancy and promoting content variation. The use of a multiplicative penalty allows for flexible control across multiple dimensions, while still preserving high-relevance candidates.

The Future of Diversity-Aware Ranking

As we continue evolving our notification diversity-aware ranking system, a next step is to introduce more adaptive, dynamic demotion strategies. Instead of relying on static rules, we plan to make demotion strength responsive to notification volume and delivery timing. For example, as a user receives more notifications—especially of similar type or in rapid succession—the system progressively applies stronger penalties to new notification candidates, effectively mitigating overwhelming experiences caused by high notification volume or tightly spaced deliveries.

Longer term, we see an opportunity to bring large language models (LLMs) into the diversity pipeline. LLMs can help us go beyond surface-level rules by understanding semantic similarity between messages and rephrasing content in more varied, user-friendly ways. This would allow us to personalize notification experiences with richer language and improved relevance while maintaining diversity across topics, tone, and timing.





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Simplifying book discovery with ML-powered visual autocomplete suggestions

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Every day, millions of customers search for books in various formats (audiobooks, e-books, and physical books) across Amazon and Audible. Traditional keyword autocomplete suggestions, while helpful, usually require several steps before customers find their desired content. Audible took on the challenge of making book discovery more intuitive and personalized while reducing the number of steps to purchase.

We developed an instant visual autocomplete system that enhances the search experience across Amazon and Audible. As the user begins typing a query, our solution provides visual previews with book covers, enabling direct navigation to relevant landing pages instead of the search result page. It also delivers real-time personalized format recommendations and incorporates multiple searchable entities, such as book pages, author pages, and series pages.

Our system needed to understand user intent from just a few keystrokes and determine the most relevant books to display, all while maintaining low latency for millions of queries. Using historical search data, we match keystrokes to products, transforming partial inputs into meaningful search suggestions. To ensure quality, we implemented confidence-based filtering mechanisms, which are particularly important for distinguishing between general queries like “mystery” and specific title searches. To reflect customers’ most recent interests, the system applies time-decay functions to long historical user interaction data.

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To meet the unique requirements of each use case, we developed two distinct technical approaches. On Audible, we deployed a deep pairwise-learning-to-rank (DeepPLTR) model. The DeepPLTR model considers pairs of books and learns to assign a higher score to the one that better matches the customer query.

The DeepPLTR model’s architecture consists of three specialized towers. The left tower factors in contextual features and recent search patterns using a long-short-term-memory model, which processes data sequentially and considers its prior decisions when issuing a new term in the sequence. The middle tower handles keyword and item engagement history. The right tower factors in customer taste preferences and product descriptions to enable personalization. The model learns from paired examples, but at runtime, it relies on books’ absolute scores to assemble a ranked list.

Training architecture of the DeepPLTR model, which takes in paired examples (green and pink blocks). At runtime, the model scores only a single candidate at a time.

For Amazon, we implemented a two-stage modeling approach involving a probabilistic information-retrieval model to determine the book title that best matches each keyword and a second model that personalizes the book format (audiobooks, e-books, and physical books). This dual-strategy approach maintains low latency while still enabling personalization.

In practice, a customer who types “dungeon craw” in the search bar now sees a visual recommendation for the book Dungeon Crawler Carl, complete with book cover, reducing friction by bypassing a search results page and sending the customer directly to the product detail page. On Audible, the system also personalizes autocomplete results and enriches the discovery experience with relevant connections. These include links to the author’s complete works (Matt Dinniman’s author page) and, for titles that belong to a series, links to the full collection (such as the Dungeon Crawler Carl series).

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Using reinforcement learning improves candidate selection and ranking for search, ad platforms, and recommender systems.

On Amazon, when the customer clicks on the title, the model personalizes the right book-format (audiobooks, e-books, physical books) recommendation and directs the customer to the right product detail page.

In both cases, after the customer has entered a certain number of keystrokes, the system employs a model to detect customer intent (e.g., book title intent for Amazon or author intent for Audible) and determine which visual widget should be displayed.

Audible and Amazon books’ visual autocomplete provides customers with more relevant content more rapidly than traditional autocomplete, and its direct navigation reduces the number of steps to find and access desired books — all while handling millions of queries at low latency.

This technology is not just about making book discovery easier; it is laying the foundation for future improvements in search personalization and visual discovery across Amazon’s ecosystem.

Acknowledgements: Jiun Kim, Sumit Khetan, Armen Stepanyan, Jack Xuan, Nathan Brothers, Eddie Chen, Vincent Lee, Soumy Ladha, Justine Luo, Yuchen Zeng, David Torres, Gali Deutsch, Chaitra Ramdas, Christopher Gomez, Sharmila Tamby, Melissa Ma, Cheng Luo, Jeffrey Jiang, Pavel Fedorov, Ronald Denaux, Aishwarya Vasanth, Azad Bajaj, Mary Heer, Adam Lowe, Jenny Wang, Cameron Cramer, Emmanuel Ankrah, Lydia Diaz, Suzette Islam, Fei Gu, Phil Weaver, Huan Xue, Kimmy Dai, Evangeline Yang, Chao Zhu, Anvy Tran, Jessica Wu, Xiaoxiong Huang, Jiushan Yang





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Revolutionizing warehouse automation with scientific simulation

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Modern warehouses rely on complex networks of sensors to enable safe and efficient operations. These sensors must detect everything from packages and containers to robots and vehicles, often in changing environments with varying lighting conditions. More important for Amazon, we need to be able to detect barcodes in an efficient way.

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The Amazon Robotics ID (ARID) team focuses on solving this problem. When we first started working on it, we faced a significant bottleneck: optimizing sensor placement required weeks or months of physical prototyping and real-world testing, severely limiting our ability to explore innovative solutions.

To transform this process, we developed Sensor Workbench (SWB), a sensor simulation platform built on NVIDIA’s Isaac Sim that combines parallel processing, physics-based sensor modeling, and high-fidelity 3-D environments. By providing virtual testing environments that mirror real-world conditions with unprecedented accuracy, SWB allows our teams to explore hundreds of configurations in the same amount of time it previously took to test just a few physical setups.

Camera and target selection/positioning

Sensor Workbench users can select different cameras and targets and position them in 3-D space to receive real-time feedback on barcode decodability.

Three key innovations enabled SWB: a specialized parallel-computing architecture that performs simulation tasks across the GPU; a custom CAD-to-OpenUSD (Universal Scene Description) pipeline; and the use of OpenUSD as the ground truth throughout the simulation process.

Parallel-computing architecture

Our parallel-processing pipeline leverages NVIDIA’s Warp library with custom computation kernels to maximize GPU utilization. By maintaining 3-D objects persistently in GPU memory and updating transforms only when objects move, we eliminate redundant data transfers. We also perform computations only when needed — when, for instance, a sensor parameter changes, or something moves. By these means, we achieve real-time performance.

Visualization methods

Sensor Workbench users can pick sphere- or plane-based visualizations, to see how the positions and rotations of individual barcodes affect performance.

This architecture allows us to perform complex calculations for multiple sensors simultaneously, enabling instant feedback in the form of immersive 3-D visuals. Those visuals represent metrics that barcode-detection machine-learning models need to work, as teams adjust sensor positions and parameters in the environment.

CAD to USD

Our second innovation involved developing a custom CAD-to-OpenUSD pipeline that automatically converts detailed warehouse models into optimized 3-D assets. Our CAD-to-USD conversion pipeline replicates the structure and content of models created in the modeling program SolidWorks with a 1:1 mapping. We start by extracting essential data — including world transforms, mesh geometry, material properties, and joint information — from the CAD file. The full assembly-and-part hierarchy is preserved so that the resulting USD stage mirrors the CAD tree structure exactly.

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To ensure modularity and maintainability, we organize the data into separate USD layers covering mesh, materials, joints, and transforms. This layered approach ensures that the converted USD file faithfully retains the asset structure, geometry, and visual fidelity of the original CAD model, enabling accurate and scalable integration for real-time visualization, simulation, and collaboration.

OpenUSD as ground truth

The third important factor was our novel approach to using OpenUSD as the ground truth throughout the entire simulation process. We developed custom schemas that extend beyond basic 3-D-asset information to include enriched environment descriptions and simulation parameters. Our system continuously records all scene activities — from sensor positions and orientations to object movements and parameter changes — directly into the USD stage in real time. We even maintain user interface elements and their states within USD, enabling us to restore not just the simulation configuration but the complete user interface state as well.

This architecture ensures that when USD initial configurations change, the simulation automatically adapts without requiring modifications to the core software. By maintaining this live synchronization between the simulation state and the USD representation, we create a reliable source of truth that captures the complete state of the simulation environment, allowing users to save and re-create simulation configurations exactly as needed. The interfaces simply reflect the state of the world, creating a flexible and maintainable system that can evolve with our needs.

Application

With SWB, our teams can now rapidly evaluate sensor mounting positions and verify overall concepts in a fraction of the time previously required. More importantly, SWB has become a powerful platform for cross-functional collaboration, allowing engineers, scientists, and operational teams to work together in real time, visualizing and adjusting sensor configurations while immediately seeing the impact of their changes and sharing their results with each other.

New perspectives

In projection mode, an explicit target is not needed. Instead, Sensor Workbench uses the whole environment as a target, projecting rays from the camera to identify locations for barcode placement. Users can also switch between a comprehensive three-quarters view and the perspectives of individual cameras.

Due to the initial success in simulating barcode-reading scenarios, we have expanded SWB’s capabilities to incorporate high-fidelity lighting simulations. This allows teams to iterate on new baffle and light designs, further optimizing the conditions for reliable barcode detection, while ensuring that lighting conditions are safe for human eyes, too. Teams can now explore various lighting conditions, target positions, and sensor configurations simultaneously, gleaning insights that would take months to accumulate through traditional testing methods.

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Looking ahead, we are working on several exciting enhancements to the system. Our current focus is on integrating more-advanced sensor simulations that combine analytical models with real-world measurement feedback from the ARID team, further increasing the system’s accuracy and practical utility. We are also exploring the use of AI to suggest optimal sensor placements for new station designs, which could potentially identify novel configurations that users of the tool might not consider.

Additionally, we are looking to expand the system to serve as a comprehensive synthetic-data generation platform. This will go beyond just simulating barcode-detection scenarios, providing a full digital environment for testing sensors and algorithms. This capability will let teams validate and train their systems using diverse, automatically generated datasets that capture the full range of conditions they might encounter in real-world operations.

By combining advanced scientific computing with practical industrial applications, SWB represents a significant step forward in warehouse automation development. The platform demonstrates how sophisticated simulation tools can dramatically accelerate innovation in complex industrial systems. As we continue to enhance the system with new capabilities, we are excited about its potential to further transform and set new standards for warehouse automation.





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