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How unusual is this UK heat and is climate change to blame?

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Mark Poynting

Climate reporter, BBC News

Getty Images Close-up image of a woman with a small, pink hand-held fan and a wide-brimmed straw-coloured sun hat. Getty Images

A second spell of temperatures well over 30C before we’ve even got to the end of June – how unusual is this and how much is climate change to blame?

Temperatures of 34C are possible on Monday or Tuesday in south-east England.

They’ve been triggered by an area of high pressure getting “stuck” over Europe, known as a heat dome.

But climate scientists are clear that the heat will have inevitably been boosted by our warming climate.

Some people might feel these temperatures are “just like summer” – and it’s true they are a lot cooler than the record 40C and more the UK hit in July 2022.

But it’s important to be aware just how unusual mid-thirties temperatures are for the UK.

In the second half of the 20th Century, one in ten years saw highs of 35C or more, BBC analysis of Met Office data shows.

But this heat is becoming more common. Between 2015 and 2024, half of the years saw 35C or above.

Graph showing how the hottest day of the year in the UK is getting hotter. The hottest recorded temperature in every year between 1950 and 2024 is shown as a red dot. There is a general increase over time, particularly in years exceeding temperatures of 35C. The hottest day in 2022 is also shown, at 40.3C.

And these temperatures are particularly unusual for June, typically the coolest summer month.

“Recording 34C in June in the UK is a relatively rare event, with just a handful of days since the 1960s,” said Dr Amy Doherty, climate scientist at the Met Office.

The hottest June temperature recorded since 1960 is 35.6C in 1976. The next years on the list are 2017 with a June high of 34.5C and 2019 with 34.0C.

Forecasts suggest that 2025 could come close to those.

And further data from the Met Office also shows that over the decade 2014-2023, days exceeded 32C more than three times as often in the UK as during the 1961-1990 period.

Role of climate change

It is well-established that climate change is making heatwaves stronger and more likely.

As humans burn coal, oil and gas and cut down forests, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere.

These gases act like a blanket, warming the Earth.

So far humans have caused the planet to heat up by 1.36C above levels of the late 1800s, leading scientists reported earlier this month.

That might not sound a lot. But even a small increase in the Earth’s average temperature can shift heat extremes to much higher levels.

Illustrative graph showing the difference between the previous climate and new climate, as two bell-curves. The new climate has a warmer average temperature, meaning cold weather is less frequent and less intense, while hot weather is more frequent and more intense.

It will take time to work out exactly how much climate change has added to this heatwave’s temperatures. But scientists are clear that it will have boosted the warmth.

“We absolutely do not need to do an attribution study to know that this heatwave is hotter than it would have been without our continued burning of oil, coal and gas,” said Dr Friederike Otto, associate professor at Imperial College London.

“Countless studies have shown that climate change is an absolute game-changer when it comes to heat in Europe, making heatwaves much more frequent, especially the hottest ones, and more intense,” she added.

Scientists are still debating how climate change is affecting the formation of heat domes, the immediate cause of the heatwave.

One theory suggests that higher temperatures in the Arctic – which has warmed nearly four times faster than the global average – are affecting the fast band of winds high in the atmosphere known as the jet stream, making heat domes more likely.

That is far from certain, but the basic effect of warming the planet makes heat domes more intense when they do form.

“What is crystal clear is that climate change is loading the dice such that when a heat dome does occur, it brings hotter and more dangerous temperatures,” said Dr Michael Byrne, reader in climate science at the University of St Andrews.

Graphic showing how a heat dome forms, broken down into three steps. First, a mass of warm air builds up in still and dry summer conditions. Second, high pressure in the atmosphere pushes the warm air down. Third, the air gets compressed within this "dome" and gets even hotter.

And as climate change continues apace, heatwaves will keep on getting more likely and could reach even higher temperatures.

“The severity of summer heatwaves, but also extremes of dry as well as wet weather events, will continue to worsen until we rein in our greenhouse gas emissions and stabilise our warming climate,” said Richard Allan, professor of climate science at the University of Reading.

Adapting to a warmer world

Temperatures in the mid-thirties are more common in other parts of the world of course.

But in many cases the UK’s infrastructure – from roads and railways to hospitals and care homes – is simply poorly designed for such heat.

The Climate Change Committee – the government’s independent adviser – has warned, for example, that more properties are likely to be at risk of overheating in the decades ahead.

And these risks are not evenly distributed among the population.

“Air conditioning and other cooling systems become crucial to maintaining health, productivity and quality of life amidst rising temperatures,” said Dr Radhika Khosla, associate professor at the University of Oxford.

“The most vulnerable – including older people, young children, and pregnant women – face the greatest risk,” added Dr Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impacts and adaptation at the Wellcome Trust, a health charity.

“A 45C summer in the UK is now a near-term threat and we are dangerously unprepared.”

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Radiomics-Based Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Approach for the Diagnosis and Prognosis of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Systematic Review – Cureus

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Radiomics-Based Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Approach for the Diagnosis and Prognosis of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Systematic Review  Cureus



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A Real-Time Look at How AI Is Reshaping Work : Information Sciences Institute

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Artificial intelligence may take over some tasks and transform others, but one thing is certain: it’s reshaping the job market. Researchers at USC’s Information Sciences Institute (ISI) analyzed LinkedIn job postings and AI-related patent filings to measure which jobs are most exposed, and where those changes are happening first. 

The project was led by ISI research assistant Eun Cheol Choi, working with students in a graduate-level USC Annenberg data science course taught by USC Viterbi Research Assistant Professor Luca Luceri. The team developed an “AI exposure” score to measure how closely each role is tied to current AI technologies. A high score suggests the job may be affected by automation, new tools, or shifts in how the work is done. 

Which Industries Are Most Exposed to AI?

To understand how exposure shifted with new waves of innovation, the researchers compared patent data from before and after a major turning point. “We split the patent dataset into two parts, pre- and post-ChatGPT release, to see how job exposure scores changed in relation to fresh innovations,” Choi said. Released in late 2022, ChatGPT triggered a surge in generative AI development, investment, and patent filings.

Jobs in wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and manufacturing topped the list in both periods. Retail also showed high exposure early on, while healthcare and social assistance rose sharply after ChatGPT, likely due to new AI tools aimed at diagnostics, medical records, and clinical decision-making.

In contrast, education and real estate consistently showed low exposure, suggesting they are, at least for now, less likely to be reshaped by current AI technologies.

AI’s Reach Depends on the Role

AI exposure doesn’t just vary by industry, it also depends on the specific type of work. Jobs like software engineer and data scientist scored highest, since they involve building or deploying AI systems. Roles in manufacturing and repair, such as maintenance technician, also showed elevated exposure due to increased use of AI in automation and diagnostics.

At the other end of the spectrum, jobs like tax accountant, HR coordinator, and paralegal showed low exposure. They center on work that’s harder for AI to automate: nuanced reasoning, domain expertise, or dealing with people.

AI Exposure and Salary Don’t Always Move Together

The study also examined how AI exposure relates to pay. In general, jobs with higher exposure to current AI technologies were associated with higher salaries, likely reflecting the demand for new AI skills. That trend was strongest in the information sector, where software and data-related roles were both highly exposed and well compensated.

But in sectors like wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing, the opposite was true. Jobs with higher exposure in these industries tended to offer lower salaries, especially at the highest exposure levels. The researchers suggest this may signal the early effects of automation, where AI is starting to replace workers instead of augmenting them.

“In some industries, there may be synergy between workers and AI,” said Choi. “In others, it may point to competition or replacement.”

From Class Project to Ongoing Research

The contrast between industries where AI complements workers and those where it may replace them is something the team plans to investigate further. They hope to build on their framework by distinguishing between different types of impact — automation versus augmentation — and by tracking the emergence of new job categories driven by AI. “This kind of framework is exciting,” said Choi, “because it lets us capture those signals in real time.”

Luceri emphasized the value of hands-on research in the classroom: “It’s important to give students the chance to work on relevant and impactful problems where they can apply the theoretical tools they’ve learned to real-world data and questions,” he said. The paper, Mapping Labor Market Vulnerability in the Age of AI: Evidence from Job Postings and Patent Data, was co-authored by students Qingyu Cao, Qi Guan, Shengzhu Peng, and Po-Yuan Chen, and was presented at the 2025 International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM), held June 23-26 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Published on July 7th, 2025

Last updated on July 7th, 2025



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SERAM collaborates on AI-driven clinical decision project

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The Spanish Society of Medical Radiology (SERAM) has collaborated with six other scientific societies to develop an AI-supported urology clinical decision-making project called Uro-Oncogu(IA)s.

Uro-Oncog(IA)s project team.SERAM

The initiative produced an algorithm that will “reduce time and clinical variability” in the management of urological patients, the society said. SERAM’s collaborators include the Spanish Urology Association (AEU), the Foundation for Research in Urology (FIU), the Spanish Society of Pathological Anatomy (SEAP), the Spanish Society of Hospital Pharmacy (SEFH), the Spanish Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging (SEMNIM), and the Spanish Society of Radiation Oncology (SEOR).

SERAM Secretary General Dr. MaríLuz Parra launched the project in Madrid on 3 July with AEU President Dr. Carmen González.

On behalf of SERAM, the following doctors participated in this initiative:

  • Prostate cancer guide: Dr. Joan Carles Vilanova, PhD, of the University of Girona,
  • Upper urinary tract guide: Dr. Richard Mast of University Hospital Vall d’Hebron in Barcelona,
  • Muscle-invasive bladder cancer guide: Dr. Eloy Vivas of the University of Malaga,
  • Non-muscle invasive bladder cancer guide: Dr. Paula Pelechano of the Valencian Institute of Oncology in Valencia,
  • Kidney cancer guide: Dr. Nicolau Molina of the University of Barcelona.



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