Business
How tariffs are shifting global supply chains
Business reporter
A 90-day pause on Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs plan is about to expire on Wednesday, which could upend US trading relationships with the rest of the world. But the uncertainty of the last few months has already forced several companies to rethink their supply lines in radical ways.
When an Illinois toymaker heard that Trump was introducing tariffs on Chinese imports, he was so incensed that he decided to sue the US government.
“I’m inclined to stand up when my company is in genuine peril,” says Rick Woldenberg, who is the CEO of educational toy firm Learning Resources.
The majority of his company’s products are made in China, so the tariffs, which US importers have to pay, not Chinese exporters, are now costing him a fortune.
He says his import taxes bill leapt from around $2.5m (£1.5m) a year to more than $100m in April when Trump temporarily increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. That would have “devastated” the company, he says.
“This kind of impact on my business is just a little bit hard to wrap my mind around,” he says.
With US tariffs on Chinese imports now at 30%, that’s still unaffordable for many American companies such as Learning Resources.
So in addition to its continuing legal fight, it is changing its global supply chain, moving production from China to Vietnam and India.
These two countries, like most others around the world, have seen the US hit them with general 10% tariffs, two-thirds lower than those on China. Although these 10% tariffs are due to run out on Wednesday, 9 July, uncertainly remains over what they may be replaced by.
Meanwhile, many Canadian companies, who often trade in both their home country and in the US, are now facing a double hit to their supply chains.
These hits are the 25% tariffs put in place by Trump on many Canadian imports, and the reciprocal ones of the same level that Canada has placed on a host of American exports.
And other businesses around the world are looking at exporting less to the US, because their American import partners are having to put up prices to cover the tariffs they now have to pay, which makes their products more expensive on US shelves.
At Learning Resources, Mr Woldenberg has now moved about 16% of manufacturing to Vietnam and India. “We have gone through the process of vetting the new factories, training them on what we needed, making sure that things could flow easily, and developing relationships.”
Yet he admits that there are uncertainties: “We don’t know if they can handle the capacity of our business. Much less the whole world moving in there at the same time.”
He also points out that switching production to another country is expensive to organise.
In the meantime, his legal case against the US tariffs, called “Learning Resources et al v Donald Trump et al” is continuing its way through the US court system.
In May a judge at the US District Court in Washington DC ruled that the tariffs against it were unlawful. But the US government immediately appealed, and Learning Resources still has to pay the tariffs for the time being.
So the firm is continuing to move production away from China.
Global supply chain expert Les Brand says that it is both expensive and difficult for companies to switch manufacturing to different countries.
“Trying to find new sources for critical components of whatever you are doing – that’s a lot of research,” says Mr Brand, who is CEO of advisory firm Supply Chain Logistics.
“There’s a lot of quality testing to do it right. You have to spend the time, and that really takes away from the business focus.”
He adds: “The knowledge transfer to train a whole new bunch of people on how to make your product takes a lot of time and money. And that effects already razor-thin margins businesses have right now.”
For Canadian fried chicken chain Cluck Clucks, its supply chain has been significantly impacted by Canada’s revenge tariffs on US imports. This is because while its chicken is Canadian, it imports both specialist catering fridges and pressure fryers from the US.
While it can’t live without the fridges, it has decided to stop buying any more of the fryers. Yet with no Canadian company making alternative ones, it is having to limit its menus at its new stores.
This is because it needs these pressure fryers to cook its bone-in chicken pieces. The new stores will instead only be able to sell boneless chicken, as that is cooked differently.
“This was a substantial decision for us, but we believe it’s the right strategic move,” says Raza Hashim, Cluck Clucks CEO.
“It’s important to note that we do plan to retain the necessary kitchen space in new locations to reintroduce these fryers should the tariff uncertainty be completely resolved in the future.”
He also warns that with the US fridges now more expensive for the company to buy, the price it charges for its food will likely have to go up. “There is a certain amount of costs we cannot absorb as brands, and we may have to pass those on to consumers. And that is not something we want to do.”
Mr Hashim adds that the business is continuing with its US expansion plans, and it has set up local supply chains to source American chicken. It currently has one US outlet, in Houston, Texas.
In Spain, olive oil producer Oro del Desierto currently exports 8% of its production to the US. It says that the US tariffs on European imports, presently 10%, are having to be passed on to American shoppers. “These tariffs will directly impact the end consumer [in the US],” says Rafael Alonso Barrau, the firm’s export manager.
The company also says it is looking at potentially reducing the volume it sends to the US, if the tariffs make trading there less profitable, and exporting more to other countries instead.
“We do have other markets where we can sell the product,” says Mr Barrau. “We sell in another 33 markets, and with all of them, and our local market, we could cushion US losses.”
Mr Brand says that firms around the world would have been less impacted if Trump had moved more slowly with his tariffs. “The speed and velocity of these decisions are really making everything worse. President Trump should have gone slower and been more meaningful about these tariffs.”
Back in Illinois, Mr Woldenberg is also concerned about where Trump will go next in his trade battles.
“We just have to make the best decision we can, based on the information we have, and then see what happens,” he says.
“I don’t want to say ‘hope for the best’, because I don’t believe that hope is a strategy.”
Business
UK steel firms on edge as talks to cut Trump tariffs near deadline | Steel industry
British steelmakers face a nervous wait to discover if they will be hit by US tariffs, after the UK government said it was attempting to complete a deal to protect the industry from Donald Trump’s trade war.
The US has set a 50% tariff on foreign steel and aluminium imports. While the UK has brokered a reduced rate of 25% and is trying to bring it down to zero, a deal has not yet been completed.
On Monday, Downing Street refused to confirm it was confident it could eliminate US tariffs on UK steel before Trump’s deadline on 9 July.
A spokesperson for No 10 said: “Our work with the US continues to get this deal implemented as soon as possible.
“That will remove the 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminium, making us the only country in the world to have tariffs removed on these products.
“The US agreed to remove tariffs on these products as part of our agreement on 8 May. It reiterated that again at the G7 last month. The discussions continue, and will continue to do so.”
The Trump administration has said it will send letters to trading partners without a deal by 9 July. On Monday, Trump caused some confusion over whether tariffs would be implemented by the 9 July deadline, before his commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, said tariff rates would take effect on 1 August.
When asked again whether ministers were confident British producers will not be hit by the original 50% tariff, the Downing Street spokesperson said that “discussions continue”.
“We have very close engagement with the US, and the US has been clear that it wants to keep talking to us to get the best deal for businesses and consumers on both sides,” they said.
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Starmer and Trump signed off a UK-US trade deal at the G7 summit in Canada last month. Under the agreement, the UK aerospace sector will face no tariffs at all from the US, while the car industry will have 10% tariffs, down from 25%.
The US executive order implementing the deal highlighted the British steel industry, noting the UK “has committed to working to meet American requirements on the security of the supply chains of steel and aluminium products … and on the nature of ownership of relevant production facilities”.
It likely reflects worries in the US about Jingye Group, which owns British Steel despite the fact that the British government took control of the company in April to stop the closure of its Scunthorpe plant. The Trump administration has sought assurances that China’s Jingye does not use British Steel as a route to circumvent US tariffs.
Business
Capgemini acquires India-based WNS for $3.3 billion to boost AI business services – Firstpost
Capgemini expects the deal to be closed by the end of 2025 and be immediately accretive to its revenue and operating margin
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France’s Capgemini has agreed to buy technology outsourcing firm WNS for $3.3 billion in cash to expand the range of AI tools it offers for companies, the IT services group said on Monday.
The deal equips Capgemini to create a consulting business service focused on helping companies improve their processes and cost efficiency with the use of artificial intelligence, namely generative AI and agentic AI, which it expects to attract significant investments.
The purchase price translating to $76.50 per WNS share represents a 17% premium compared to their last closing price on July 3 and does not include WNS’s financial debt, Capgemini said.
Its interest in India-based WNS, whose services include business process outsourcing and data analytics, was first reported by Reuters in April.
“WNS brings … its high growth, margin accretive and resilient Digital Business Process Services … while further increasing our exposure to the US market,” Capgemini CEO Aiman Ezzat said in a press statement.
WNS’s customers include large organizations such as Coca-Cola, T-Mobile and United Airlines.
On a conference call with media and analysts, Ezzat said the acquisition would immediately create cross-selling opportunities between the two companies, mainly in the U.S. and Britain.
Capgemini expects the deal to be closed by the end of 2025 and be immediately accretive to its revenue and operating margin.
However, its shares fell around 5% following the news, the biggest losers on Europe’s benchmark STOXX 600 index as of 1024 GMT, with Morgan Stanley analysts saying the deal would limit its balance sheet flexibility while not having a major impact on financials.
Some investors are also concerned that Gen AI could impact the typically staff-intensive business process outsourcing (BPO) market, which could bite into Capgemini’s revenues and expose it to new competition, the analysts said in a research note.
“We expect investors to be able to see the opportunity that could come from disrupting BPO with Gen AI but think some evidence will be needed to convince the market WNS is the right vehicle,” they added.
Business
Business Brief this week: A stampede, a gold rush, and an AI arms race
Good morning. This week’s AI for Good Summit in Geneva is showing how the technology’s innovations are also pushing global alliances into unfamiliar territory. That’s in focus today – along with this year’s Calgary Stampede and a gold rush that’s obscuring an inconvenient truth about Canada’s exports.
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On our radar
Tomorrow: Ahead of the July 9 deadline set by Trump for countries to strike trade deals with the U.S., the president said the White House would begin sending letters over the weekend to countries in batches of 10 to notify them of the tariff rates they can expect.
This week: The Calgary Stampede, which opened on Friday and runs through July 13, is known for many things: rodeo, pancakes and denim as far as the eye can see. But its real currency is connection. For 10 days, every bar and rooftop patio in the city is turned into a pop-up boardroom.
This year’s edition lands at an uneasy moment. Alberta’s energy sector has big wins to toast – LNG exports have begun from the West Coast, the long-delayed Trans Mountain pipeline is pumping and Ottawa is suddenly talking about Canada as an “energy superpower.” The city’s mood is buoyant. But a cautious kind of buoyancy, if there can be such a thing: Political uncertainty still looms large, from Mark Carney’s early tenure in Ottawa to the underwhelming response to Alberta’s proposed new pipeline.
On the books: Earnings and economic events are light, but Canada’s recent trade report is a reminder of how hard domestic exporters are being hit as Carney presses for a tariff-free deal with the U.S.
Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Innovation Evan Solomon on Parliament Hill June 19.PATRICK DOYLE/The Canadian Press
In focus
How global forces have shaped Canada’s priorities
The UN’s AI for Good summit this week is revealing how countries are racing to build sovereign computing infrastructure that is reliant on foreign investment.
In an attempt to capitalize on the economic promise of artificial intelligence, Western governments are investing in domestic data centres, drafting AI rules, and striking deals with countries that, less than a decade ago, might have faced sharper scrutiny.
By turning to investors such as Saudi Arabia, critics warn that attempts to reduce reliance on U.S. tech giants risk entrenching new forms of dependence on states with close ties to China and deeply contested human rights records.
Both Canada and the U.S. have set aside recent ruptures over human rights in favour of strategic and economic interests.
Canada’s 2018 standoff – sparked by then–foreign affairs minister Chrystia Freeland’s criticism of Saudi Arabia’s arrest of women’s rights activists – formally ended in 2023 when the two governments restored ties on the basis of “mutual respect and common interests.”
For the U.S., Russia’s invasion of Ukraine heightened the need for oil market stability and stronger regional alliances, prompting Washington to re-engage with Riyadh despite earlier condemnations of the kingdom’s role in the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi. (During his first presidential campaign, Joe Biden pledged to make Saudi Arabia “pay the price” and called the country a “pariah” with “very little social redeeming value.”)
Human-rights advocates have remained critical of the UN for inviting Saudi officials to the AI summit – and concern remains over Riyadh’s expanding ties with China, which include co-operation on data centres, chip development and surveillance technologies that could complicate Western efforts to build secure, independent AI systems.
In May, President Donald Trump signed a US$600-billion strategic agreement with Saudi Arabia, including more than US$40-billion earmarked for artificial intelligence and related infrastructure.
Canada, too, is open to discussions with Saudi Arabia to support domestic data-centre expansion. In a recent interview with The Globe’s Joe Castaldo and Pippa Norman, federal AI minister Evan Solomon said Ottawa is in search of “pockets of capital” to help build sovereign capacity, while insisting any agreements would be pursued with “eyes wide open” and preserve Canadian oversight.
“Diplomatic ties and investment does not mean you agree with governments,” he said. “We can’t look at AI as a walled-off garden. Like, ‘Oh, we cannot ever take money from X or Y.’”
Ottawa’s openness was underscored last week when Castaldo reported that U.S. data-centre firm CoreWeave Inc. will soon operate a site in Cambridge, Ont., with Canadian AI startup Cohere Inc. – backed by $240-million from a federal fund – as a customer.
British-Canadian AI guru Geoffrey Hinton, who is presenting tomorrow, told The Globe he planned on telling Solomon that Canada needs to regulate AI when the two met last week. But he acknowledged a trade-off.
“The big problem is that unless you can get international agreements, countries that don’t regulate will have an advantage over countries that do. That’s the same for exploiting natural resources.”
It’s just one issue for Canada to tackle as it navigates the contradictions of a sovereignty strategy built on foreign capital, no clear regulatory framework and a bit of moral flexibility.
Charted
What the golden shine is hiding
Canada’s trade deficit with the world narrowed in May from a record high the previous month.
But tariffs continued to weigh on exports to the United States – and the rise in prices for gold skewed the picture.
Canada’s trade deficit with the world – in very technical terms according to The Globe’s Jason Kirby, “a measure of how much more stuff we buy from other countries than sell to them” – fell to $5.9-billion in May from a record high of $7.6-billion in April.
But after stripping out imports and exports of the gold category, Kirby observes, Canada’s trade deficit widened to $10.3-billion.
Bookmarked
On our reading list
Bednar: If a toaster burns you, you can sue. But if Big Tech burns you, you’re out of luck.
Keller: Trump has yet to kill the golden goose that is the U.S. economy. But he’s working on it.
Hirsch: To increase defence spending, Canada must cut deeper, tax harder and borrow more – all at once.
Morning update
Stock markets were mixed amid confusion as U.S. officials flagged a delay on tariffs but failed to provide specifics on the changes. Wall Street futures were in negative territory while TSX futures pointed higher.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.34 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 edged higher 0.13 per cent, Germany’s DAX gained 0.77 per cent and France’s CAC 40 rose 0.25 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.56 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.12 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 73.19 U.S. cents.
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