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How epic was that shot? Opportunity Analysis brings data to the debate

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Every week of the National Hockey League (NHL) season, fans see TV rankings of the best plays of the week, and every week, fans debate those rankings. Most people agree that a great shot is one that had a low probability of success, and a great save is one that stopped a shot with a high probability of success. But what were those probabilities, really?

A new NHL EDGE IQ metric powered by Amazon Web Services (AWS) lends more fodder to these and other debates and promises new insights across the sport. That metric, Opportunity Analysis, determines how difficult a shot is based on a number of different factors, using a combination of historical and real-time data.

Opportunity Analysis uses real-time data, up to the moment of release on every shot, to measure factors most critical to the play — including shot location.

During live games, Opportunity Analysis uses data from the NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking system, up to the moment of release on every shot, to measure the factors most critical to the play.

“Opportunity Analysis is the first comprehensive and rigorous analysis that can be used in near real time to understand the shot setup, opportunity, and circumstances around the development of a shot,” says Leon Li, AWS principal cloud architect.

The metric could be the genesis of new, more data-driven fan debates — a development the NHL welcomes as it seeks ways to make the game more accessible to fans.

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Spliced binned-Pareto distributions are flexible enough to handle symmetric, asymmetric, and multimodal distributions, offering a more consistent metric.

“We’re going to be able to use this metric as a tool for fans and broadcasters to help foster understanding and enable them to formulate their own theories,” explained Brant Berglund, NHL senior director of coaching and general manager applications. “It’s not about giving people the answer. It’s about relying on the accuracy of the data, removing as much of the subjective as possible, and empowering people to assess the data and make their own decisions. We’re excited to hear people debate the data — the discussion is the best part.”

Opportunity Analysis assesses the factors that make up a shot, including how much distance the goalie had to cover to block the attempt.

Opportunity Analysis assesses the factors that make up a shot, providing an output ranking of high, medium, or low, with “high” being the greatest chance of the shot resulting in a goal. The factors include elements such as the angle of the shooter, proximity to the goal, and how much distance the goalie had to cover to block the attempt.

Opportunity Analysis distills an unprecedented amount of data — dozens of factors, many tracked with sub-second latency — into one comprehensive metric.

“We were able to look at so many factors through the volume of real-time NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking data available over the course of the season. That’s the comprehensive aspect of it,” Li says. “The rigorous aspect of it is us, as data scientists, working with NHL’s technology and hockey experts and data engineers to vet the accuracy of the data and generate features that make sense in the context of the game.”

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In its collaboration with the NFL, AWS contributes cloud computing technology, machine learning services, business intelligence services — and, sometimes, the expertise of its scientists.

Opportunity Analysis is the latest metric to emerge from the in NHL’s ongoing effort to develop unique data sources and analytic techniques to help break down the intricacies of the sport. Over the past 15 years, the NHL has implemented the Hockey Information and Tracking System (HITS) as the official scoring and events data platform, and most recently launched NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking technology. That system, which is installed in all 32 NHL venues, includes infrared emitters and cameras that track sensors embedded within the puck and the sweaters of every player.

AWS and NHL Unveil Opportunity Analysis | Amazon Web Services

In 2021, NHL and AWS began collaborating to make the most of these data sources. In 2022, Face-Off Probability — the first AI/ML-driven NHL analytic — launched within the NHL EDGE IQ platform, helping determine who is most likely to win a specific face-off based on multiple historic and in-game data points. This built upon the foundation of Shot and Save Analytics, two advanced stats that offer an in-depth look at a team or player’s scoring performance and a goalie’s save performance, respectively.

The layers of data associated with Opportunity Analysis are a gold mine for fans, broadcasters, and the League alike, according to Berglund. This innovative metric reveals not only the difficulty level of a given shot, but insights such as how fast the puck was traveling, the goalie’s height, the shooter’s change in angle, and others.

Opportunity Analysis determines how difficult a shot is based on a number of different factors, using a combination of historical and real-time data like puck speed.

“With this product, we’re going to be able to output massive amounts of data on the play leading up to every shot, curated in very close to real time,” Berglund says. “That’s even more valuable than the rating in many ways — that we’re going to actually output that much, that our talented broadcasters have that at their fingertips to talk about during the game, and that fans will have access via those channels, too.”

Opportunity Analysis attempts to answer the common lament — “How good was that scoring chance?!” — with a data-driven approach. Just how tough was the situation generating the shot, from a historical perspective? What, exactly, made the shot a near impossibility, a sure thing, or something in between?

NHL and AWS trained a machine learning model to rate the likelihood that certain combinations of circumstances around a shot would result in a goal.

“We wanted to be open-minded and preserve the possibility that the data could challenge conventional logic about scoring opportunities,” Berglund says. “Sometimes it did, sometimes it didn’t.”

Opportunity Analysis attempts to answer the common lament — “How good was that scoring chance?!” — with a data-driven approach. The NHL and AWS trained a machine learning model to rate the likelihood that certain combinations of circumstances around a shot would result in a goal.

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For example, Opportunity Analysis verifies the intuition that, on average, shots closer to the net have a better chance of going in than shots from farther away. But other factors are more subtle. While it’s still too early to say why or how much, the data have revealed an association between scoring rates/projected goal rates and where the puck passes the blue line before a shot.

“The beauty of this project is that it’s forcing all stakeholders to use data to think about the game in different ways,” Berglund says. “And hopefully, consumers will, too.”

The beauty of this project is that it’s forcing all stakeholders to use data to think about the game in different ways.

Brant Berglund, NHL senior director of coaching and general manager applications

AWS’s processing power and cloud infrastructure made it possible for the NHL team to approach its data in ways it couldn’t before. The security and scalability of AWS SageMaker “allowed the NHL to trust AWS with very valuable, comprehensive data and allowed us to quickly iterate and develop the model,” Li explains.

AWS Kinesis made it possible to capture and process live game action, including snapshots of time that occur around a given shot. Kinesis sends the information to the model in SageMaker, which then returns a high, medium, or low rating and the top contributing factors that can be routed to analysts for integration in broadcast analysis.

“That real-time aspect is very important for us,” Li says. “So is the scalability, given that the NHL is generating thousands of records per second, and multiple games can be happening in parallel.”

Berglund expects that, as the NHL dives further into the key factors of shots’ likelihood of success, other features that could illuminate the sport will emerge. After all, with so many ways to engage beyond the game itself, including second-screen experiences, no one is a casual fan anymore. More access and features will mean more ways for fans — and everyone involved in the sport — to unpack the action and formulate their own theories about what makes a successful player or team.





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An inside look at Meta’s transition from C to Rust on mobile

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Have you ever worked is legacy code? Are you curious what it takes to modernize systems at a massive scale?

Pascal Hartig is joined on the latest Meta Tech Podcast by Elaine and Buping, two software engineers working on a bold project to rewrite the decades-old C code in one of Meta’s core messaging libraries in Rust. It’s an ambitious effort that will transform a central messaging library that is shared across Messenger, Facebook, Instagram, and Meta’s AR/VR platforms.

They discuss taking on a project of this scope – even without a background in Rust, how they’re approaching it, and what it means to optimize for ‘developer happiness.’

Download or listen to the episode below:

You can also find the episode wherever you get your podcasts, including:

The Meta Tech Podcast is a podcast, brought to you by Meta, where we highlight the work Meta’s engineers are doing at every level – from low-level frameworks to end-user features.

Send us feedback on InstagramThreads, or X.

And if you’re interested in learning more about career opportunities at Meta visit the Meta Careers page.





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Amazon Research Awards recipients announced

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Amazon Research Awards (ARA) provides unrestricted funds and AWS Promotional Credits to academic researchers investigating various research topics in multiple disciplines. This cycle, ARA received many excellent research proposals from across the world and today is publicly announcing 73 award recipients who represent 46 universities in 10 countries.

This announcement includes awards funded under five call for proposals during the fall 2024 cycle: AI for Information Security, Automated Reasoning, AWS AI, AWS Cryptography, and Sustainability. Proposals were reviewed for the quality of their scientific content and their potential to impact both the research community and society. Additionally, Amazon encourages the publication of research results, presentations of research at Amazon offices worldwide, and the release of related code under open-source licenses.

Recipients have access to more than 700 Amazon public datasets and can utilize AWS AI/ML services and tools through their AWS Promotional Credits. Recipients also are assigned an Amazon research contact who offers consultation and advice, along with opportunities to participate in Amazon events and training sessions.

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In both black-box stress testing and red-team exercises, Nova Premier comes out on top.

“Automated Reasoning is an important area of research for Amazon, with potential applications across various features and applications to help improve security, reliability, and performance for our customers. Through the ARA program, we collaborate with leading academic researchers to explore challenges in this field,” said Robert Jones, senior principal scientist with the Cloud Automated Reasoning Group. “We were again impressed by the exceptional response to our Automated Reasoning call for proposals this year, receiving numerous high-quality submissions. Congratulations to the recipients! We’re excited to support their work and partner with them as they develop new science and technology in this important area.”

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IAM Access Analyzer feature uses automated reasoning to recommend policies that remove unused accesses, helping customers achieve “least privilege”.

“At Amazon, we believe that solving the world’s toughest sustainability challenges benefits from both breakthrough scientific research and open and bold collaboration. Through programs like the Amazon Research Awards program, we aim to support academic research that could contribute to our understanding of these complex issues,” said Kommy Weldemariam, Director of Science and Innovation Sustainability. “The selected proposals represent innovative projects that we hope will help advance knowledge in this field, potentially benefiting customers, communities, and the environment.”

ARA funds proposals throughout the year in a variety of research areas. Applicants are encouraged to visit the ARA call for proposals page for more information or send an email to be notified of future open calls.

The tables below list, in alphabetical order by last name, fall 2024 cycle call-for-proposal recipients, sorted by research area.

AI for Information Security

Recipient University Research title
Christopher Amato Northeastern University Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Cyber Defense for Securing Cloud Computing Platforms
Bernd Bischl Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich Improving Generative and Foundation Models Reliability via Uncertainty-awareness
Shiqing Ma University Of Massachusetts Amherst LLM and Domain Adaptation for Attack Detection
Alina Oprea Northeastern University Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Cyber Defense for Securing Cloud Computing Platforms
Roberto Perdisci University of Georgia ContextADBench: A Comprehensive Benchmark Suite for Contextual Anomaly Detection

Automated Reasoning

Recipient University Research title
Nada Amin Harvard University LLM-Augmented Semi-Automated Proofs for Interactive Verification
Suguman Bansal Georgia Institute of Technology Certified Inductive Generalization in Reinforcement Learning
Ioana Boureanu University of Surrey Phoebe+: An Automated-Reasoning Tool for Provable Privacy in Cryptographic Systems
Omar Haider Chowdhury Stony Brook University Restricter: An Automatic Tool for Authoring Amazon Cedar Access Control Policies with the Principle of Least Privilege
Stefan Ciobaca Alexandru Ioan Cuza University An Interactive Proof Mode for Dafny
João Ferreira INESC-ID Polyglot Automated Program Repair for Infrastructure as Code
Sicun Gao University Of California, San Diego Monte Carlo Trees with Conflict Models for Proof Search
Mirco Giacobbe University of Birmingham Neural Software Verification
Tobias Grosser University of Cambridge Synthesis-based Symbolic BitVector Simplification for Lean
Ronghui Gu Columbia University Scaling Formal Verification of Security Properties for Unmodified System Software
Alexey Ignatiev Monash University Huub: Next-Gen Lazy Clause Generation
Kenneth McMillan University of Texas At Austin Synthesis of Auxiliary Variables and Invariants for Distributed Protocol Verification
Alexandra Mendes University of Porto Overcoming Barriers to the Adoption of Verification-Aware Languages
Jason Nieh Columbia University Scaling Formal Verification of Security Properties for Unmodified System Software
Rohan Padhye Carnegie Mellon University Automated Synthesis and Evaluation of Property-Based Tests
Nadia Polikarpova University Of California, San Diego Discovering and Proving Critical System Properties with LLMs
Fortunat Rajaona University of Surrey Phoebe+: An Automated-Reasoning Tool for Provable Privacy in Cryptographic Systems
Subhajit Roy Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur Theorem Proving Modulo LLM
Gagandeep Singh University of Illinois At Urbana–Champaign Trustworthy LLM Systems using Formal Contracts
Scott Stoller Stony Brook University Restricter: An Automatic Tool for Authoring Amazon Cedar Access Control Policies with the Principle of Least Privilege
Peter Stuckey Monash University Huub: Next-Gen Lazy Clause Generation
Yulei Sui University of New South Wales Path-Sensitive Typestate Analysis through Sparse Abstract Execution
Nikos Vasilakis Brown University Semantics-Driven Static Analysis for the Unix/Linux Shell
Ping Wang Stevens Institute of Technology Leveraging Large Language Models for Reasoning Augmented Searching on Domain-specific NoSQL Database
John Wawrzynek University of California, Berkeley GPU-Accelerated High-Throughput SAT Sampling

AWS AI

Recipient University Research title
Panagiotis Adamopoulos Emory University Generative AI solutions for The Spillover Effect of Fraudulent Reviews on Product Recommendations
Vikram Adve University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign Fellini: Differentiable ML Compiler for Full-Graph Optimization for LLM Models
Frances Arnold California Institute of Technology Closed-loop Generative Machine Learning for De Novo Enzyme Discovery and Optimization
Yonatan Bisk Carnegie Mellon University Useful, Safe, and Robust Multiturn Interactions with LLMs
Shiyu Chang University of California, Santa Barbara Cut the Crap: Advancing the Efficient Communication of Multi-Agent Systems via Spatial-Temporal Topology Design and KV Cache Sharing
Yuxin Chen University of Pennsylvania Provable Acceleration of Diffusion Models for Modern Generative AI
Tianlong Chen University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Cut the Crap: Advancing the Efficient Communication of Multi-Agent Systems via Spatial-Temporal Topology Design and KV Cache Sharing
Mingyu Ding University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Aligning Long Videos and Language as Long-Horizon World Models
Nikhil Garg Cornell University Market Design for Responsible Multi-agent LLMs
Jessica Hullman Northwestern University Human-Aligned Uncertainty Quantification in High Dimensions
Christopher Jermaine Rice University Fast, Trusted AI Using the EINSUMMABLE Compiler
Yunzhu Li Columbia University Physics-Informed Foundation Models Through Embodied Interactions
Pattie Maes Massachusetts Institute of Technology Understanding How LLM Agents Deviate from Human Choices
Sasa Misailovic University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign Fellini: Differentiable ML Compiler for Full-Graph Optimization for LLM Models
Kristina Monakhova Cornell University Trustworthy extreme imaging for science using interpretable uncertainty quantification
Todd Mowry Carnegie Mellon University Efficient LLM Serving on Trainium via Kernel Generation
Min-hwan Oh Seoul National University Mutually Beneficial Interplay Between Selection Fairness and Context Diversity in Contextual Bandits
Patrick Rebeschini University of Oxford Optimal Regularization for LLM Alignment
Jose Renau University of California, Santa Cruz Verification Constrained Hardware Optimization using Intelligent Design Agentic Programming
Vilma Todri Emory University Generative AI solutions for The Spillover Effect of Fraudulent Reviews on Product Recommendations
Aravindan Vijayaraghavan Northwestern University Human-Aligned Uncertainty Quantification in High Dimensions
Wei Yang University of Texas at Dallas Optimizing RISC-V Compilers with RISC-LLM and Syntax Parsing
Huaxiu Yao University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Aligning Long Videos and Language as Long-Horizon World Models
Amy Zhang University of Washington Tools for Governing AI Agent Autonomy
Ruqi Zhang Purdue University Efficient Test-time Alignment for Large Language Models and Large Multimodal Models
Zheng Zhang Rutgers University-New Brunswick AlphaQC: An AI-powered Quantum Circuit Optimizer and Denoiser

AWS Cryptography

Recipient University Research title
Alexandra Boldyreva Georgia Institute of Technology Quantifying Information Leakage in Searchable Encryption Protocols
Maria Eichlseder Graz University of Technology, Austria SALAD – Systematic Analysis of Lightweight Ascon-based Designs
Venkatesan Guruswami University of California, Berkeley Obfuscation, Proof Systems, and Secure Computation: A Research Program on Cryptography at the Simons Institute for the Theory of Computing
Joseph Jaeger Georgia Institute of Technology Analyzing Chat Encryption for Group Messaging
Aayush Jain Carnegie Mellon Large Scale Multiparty Silent Preprocessing for MPC from LPN
Huijia Lin University of Washington Large Scale Multiparty Silent Preprocessing for MPC from LPN
Hamed Nemati KTH Royal Institute of Technology Trustworthy Automatic Verification of Side-Channel Countermeasures for Binary Cryptographic Programs using the HoIBA libary
Karl Palmskog KTH Royal Institute of Technology Trustworthy Automatic Verification of Side-Channel Countermeasures for Binary Cryptographic Programs using the HoIBA libary
Chris Peikert University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Practical Third-Generation FHE and Bootstrapping
Dimitrios Skarlatos Carnegie Mellon University Scale-Out FHE LLMs on GPUs
Vinod Vaikuntanathan Massachusetts Institute of Technology Can Quantum Computers (Really) Factor?
Daniel Wichs Northeastern University Obfuscation, Proof Systems, and Secure Computation: A Research Program on Cryptography at the Simons Institute for the Theory of Computing
David Wu University Of Texas At Austin Fast Private Information Retrieval and More using Homomorphic Encryption

Sustainability

Recipient University Research title
Meeyoung Cha Max Planck Institute Forest-Blossom (Flossom): A New Framework for Sustaining Forest Biodiversity Through Outcome-Driven Remote Sensing Monitoring
Jingrui He University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign Foundation Model Enabled Earth’s Ecosystem Monitoring
Pedro Lopes University of Chicago AI-powered Tools that Enable Engineers to Make & Re-make Sustainable Hardware
Cheng Yaw Low Max Planck Institute Forest-Blossom (Flossom): A New Framework for Sustaining Forest Biodiversity Through Outcome-Driven Remote Sensing Monitoring





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Independent evaluations demonstrate Nova Premier’s safety

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AI safety is a priority at Amazon. Our investment in safe, transparent, and responsible AI (RAI) includes collaboration with the global community and policymakers. We are members of and collaborate with organizations such as the Frontier Model Forum, the Partnership on AI, and other forums organized by government agencies such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Consistent with Amazon’s endorsement of the Korea Frontier AI Safety Commitments, we published our Frontier Model Safety Framework earlier this year.

Amazon Nova Premier’s guardrails help prevent generation of unsafe content.

During the development of the Nova Premier model, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation to assess its performance and safety. This included testing on both internal and public benchmarks and internal/automated and third-party red-teaming exercises. Once the final model was ready, we prioritized obtaining unbiased, third-party evaluations of the model’s robustness against RAI controls. In this post, we outline the key findings from these evaluations, demonstrating the strength of our testing approach and Amazon Premier’s standing as a safe model. Specifically, we cover our evaluations with two third-party evaluators: PRISM AI and ActiveFence.

Evaluation of Nova Premier against PRISM AI

PRISM Eval’s Behavior Elicitation Tool (BET) dynamically and systematically stress-tests AI models’ safety guardrails. The methodology focuses on measuring how many adversarial attempts (steps) it takes to get a model to generate harmful content across several key risk dimensions. The central metric is “steps to elicit” — the number of increasingly sophisticated prompting attempts required before a model generates an inappropriate response. A higher number of steps indicates stronger safety measures, as the model is more resistant to manipulation. The PRISM risk dimensions (inspired by the MLCommons AI Safety Benchmarks) include CBRNE weapons, violent crimes, non-violent crimes, defamation, and hate, amongst several others.

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From reinforcement learning and supervised fine-tuning to guardrail models and image watermarking, responsible AI was foundational to the design and development of the Amazon Nova family of models.

Using the BET Eval tool and its V1.0 metric, which is tailored toward non-reasoning models, we compared the recently released Nova models (Pro and Premier) to the latest models in the same class: Claude (3.5 v2 and 3.7 non-reasoning) and Llama4 Maverick, all available through Amazon Bedrock. PRISM BET conducts black-box evaluations (where model developers don’t have access to the test prompts) of models integrated with their API. The evaluation conducted with BET Eval MAX, PRISM’s most comprehensive/aggressive testing suite, revealed significant variations in safety against malicious instructions. Nova models demonstrated superior overall safety performance, with an average of 43 steps for Premier and 52 steps for Pro, compared to 37.7 for Claude 3.5 v2 and fewer than 12 steps for other models in the comparison set (namely, 9.9 for Claude3.7, 11.5 for Claude 3.7 thinking, and 6.5 for Maverick). This higher step count suggests that on average, Nova’s safety guardrails are more sophisticated and harder to circumvent through adversarial prompting. The figure below presents the number of steps per harm category evaluated through BET Eval MAX.

Results of tests using PRISM’s BET Eval MAX testing suite.

The PRISM evaluation provides valuable insights into the relative safety of different Amazon Bedrock models. Nova’s strong performance, particularly in hate speech and defamation resistance, represents meaningful progress in AI safety. However, the results also highlight the ongoing challenge of building truly robust safety measures into AI systems. As the field continues to evolve, frameworks like BET will play an increasingly important role in benchmarking and improving AI safety. As a part of this collaboration Nicolas Miailhe, CEO of PRISM Eval, said, “It’s incredibly rewarding for us to see Nova outperforming strong baselines using the BET Eval MAX; our aim is to build a long-term partnership toward safer-by-design models and to make BET available to various model providers.” Organizations deploying AI systems should carefully consider these safety metrics when selecting models for their applications.

Manual red teaming with ActiveFence

The AI safety & security company ActiveFence benchmarked Nova Premier on Bedrock on prompts distributed across Amazon’s eight core RAI categories. ActiveFence also evaluated Claude 3.7 (non-reasoning mode) and GPT 4.1 API on the same set. The flag rate on Nova Premier was lower than that on the other two models, indicating that Nova Premier is the safest of the three.

Model 3P Flag Rate [↓ is better]
Nova Premier 12.0%
Sonnet 3.7 (non-reasoning) 20.6%
GPT4.1 API 22.4%

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Generative AI raises new challenges in defining, measuring, and mitigating concerns about fairness, toxicity, and intellectual property, among other things. But work has started on the solutions.

“Our role is to think like an adversary but act in service of safety,” said Guy Paltieli from ActiveFence. “By conducting a blind stress test of Nova Premier under realistic threat scenarios, we helped evaluate its security posture in support of Amazon’s broader responsible-AI goals, ensuring the model could be deployed with greater confidence.”

These evaluations conducted with PRISM and ActiveFence give us confidence in the strength of our guardrails and our ability to protect our customers’ safety when they use our models. While these evaluations demonstrate strong safety performance, we recognize that AI safety is an ongoing challenge requiring continuous improvement. These assessments represent a point-in-time snapshot, and we remain committed to regular testing and enhancement of our safety measures. No AI system can guarantee perfect safety in all scenarios, which is why we maintain monitoring and response systems after deployment.

Acknowledgments: Vincent Ponzo, Elyssa Vincent





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