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Has Trump given the green light to protecting peace in Ukraine?

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Good morning. News to start: The US is prepared to provide intelligence assets and battlefield oversight to any western defence force in postwar Ukraine and take part in a European-led air defence shield for the country, officials briefed on negotiations over the so-called security guarantees have told the Financial Times.

Today, I unpack what’s driving the White House’s apparent shift on protecting a potential peace deal in Ukraine, and explain why three of the EU’s most powerful leaders are taking a trip to Moldova.

Willing

The coalition of the willing to protect postwar Ukraine was formed in response to US President Donald Trump’s assertion that the US wanted no part in its activities. Almost six months later, the most prominent unwilling appears to be changing his tune.

Context: Ukraine has demanded security guarantees to protect it from any future aggression from Russia as part of a deal to end Moscow’s more than three-and-a-half year long war against the country.

US national security and defence officials have told European counterparts in recent days that America could commit intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets, command and control structures and critical systems necessary to sustain Ukraine’s air security to western troops taking part in the security guarantees.

That’s a major shift in stance.

In March, France and the UK formed the “coalition”, vowing to explore options including deploying tens of thousands of troops on the ground, in air and sea policing missions, and ceasefire monitoring, to allow Ukraine’s armed forces to rebuild and form a “steel porcupine” that Russia would never again contemplate attacking.

The public show of support was aimed at reassuring Kyiv in the face of Trump’s refusal to join, but in private officials admitted that the Europeans couldn’t go it alone, and the US military needed to take part, at least in a supportive capacity.

Since then, the US president has shown signs of impatience with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, and increasing bonhomie with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Officials say Trump has also realised that his aim of achieving peace — and desire for the Nobel Peace Prize — requires some form of American input into ensuring that peace lasts. Europe’s promise to increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP has also bought the continent credit in the White House, they add.

Officials say a rough outline of the security guarantee pitch could come “soon”.

Much is left to be decided, not least which European countries will send how many troops into potential harm’s way, and whether Putin would even agree (thus far he’s said he will never accept western troops in Ukraine).

A peace deal is still elusive, and any decision to implement security guarantees a long way off. But European officials are cautiously optimistic that a key hurdle — Trump’s reticence to help — has been breached.

“President Trump and his national security team continue to engage with Russian and Ukrainian officials towards a bilateral meeting to stop the killing and end the war,” said a White House official. “It is not in the national interest to further negotiate these issues publicly.”

Chart du jour: Work-life balance

People in the Netherlands are quietly shifting towards a four-day work week, offering an apt case study of its benefits — and drawbacks, writes Sarah O’Connor.

Reinforcements

The leaders of France, Germany and Poland will today send a not-so-subtle message to Moldovan voters: Don’t let Russia derail your express train to European integration.

Context: Moldova’s parliamentary elections on September 28 are a referendum on the country’s pro-EU government and its bid to become a member of the bloc. Russia is providing financial, organisational and rhetorical support to opposition parties who oppose that ambition.

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will join President Maia Sandu to mark Moldova’s Independence Day, including a mass public address at a concert in the capital, Chișinău.

The fiercely pro-European Sandu narrowly won re-election in November, just after seeing a referendum on EU accession pass with a razor-thin majority in the face of sustained Russian interference.

A former Soviet republic, Moldova is seen as a critical battleground for pro-western alignment in eastern Europe. It borders Ukraine and part of its territory in the region of Transnistria is occupied by pro-Russian separatists.

While condemning Russian meddling in Moldovan politics, which Moscow denies, Brussels and other EU capitals have sought to provide financial aid to Sandu’s government and rhetorical support to her pro-western ambitions, without overtly seeking to influence voters.

“Through their presence, European partners reaffirm their trust in the Republic of Moldova and their support for the country’s European path,” Sandu’s office said in a statement.

What to watch today

  1. European leaders visit Moldova to celebrate the country’s independence day. Press statements from 1650pm.

  2. EU Council president António Costa meets Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever.

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AI and jobs; Oklahoma and towers; India and retailers; AI and cybercrime; Norway and elections



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Trump Intel deal designed to block sale of chipmaking unit, CFO says

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The Trump administration’s investment in Intel was structured to deter the chipmaker from selling its manufacturing unit, its chief financial officer said on Thursday, locking it into a lossmaking business it has faced pressure to offload.

The US government last week agreed to take a 10 per cent stake in Intel by converting $8.9bn of federal grants under the 2022 Chips Act into equity, the latest unorthodox intervention by President Donald Trump in corporate America.

The agreement also contains a five-year warrant that allows the government to take an additional 5 per cent of Intel at $20 a share if it ceases to own 51 per cent of its foundry business — which aims to make chips for third-party clients.

“I don’t think there’s a high likelihood that we would take our stake below the 50 per cent, so ultimately I would expect [the warrant] to expire,” CFO David Zinsner told a Deutsche Bank conference on Thursday.

“I think from the government’s perspective, they were aligned with that: they didn’t want to see us take the business and spin it off or sell it to somebody.”

Intel has faced pressure to carve off its foundry business as it haemorrhages cash. It lost $13bn last year as it struggled to compete with rival TSMC and attract outside customers.

Zinsner’s comments highlight how the deal with the Trump administration ties the company’s hands.

Analysts including Citi, as well as former Intel board members, have called for a sale — and Intel has seen takeover interest from the likes of Qualcomm.

Intel’s board ousted chief executive Pat Gelsinger, the architect of its ambitious foundry strategy, in December, which intensified expectations that it could ultimately abandon the business.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Thursday the deal was being finalised. “The Intel deal is still being ironed out by the Department of Commerce. The T’s are still being crossed, the I’s are still being dotted.”

Intel received $5.7bn of the government investment on Wednesday, Zinsner said. The remaining $3.2bn of the investment is still dependent on Intel hitting milestones agreed under a Department of Defense scheme and has not yet been paid.

He said the warrants could be viewed as “a little bit of friction to keep us from moving in a direction that I think ultimately the government would prefer we not move to”.

He said the direct government stake could also incentivise potential customers to view Intel on a “different level”.

So far, the likes of Nvidia, Apple and Qualcomm have not placed orders with Intel, which has struggled to convince them it has reliable manufacturing processes that could lure them away from TSMC.

As Intel’s new chief executive Lip-Bu Tan seeks to shore up the company’s finances, the government deal also “eliminated the need to access capital markets”, Zinsner explained.

Given the uncertainty over whether Intel would hit the construction milestones required to receive the Chips Act manufacturing grants, converting the government funds to equity “effectively guaranteed that we’d get the cash”.

“This was a great quarter for us in terms of cash raise,” Zinsner added. Intel had also recently sold $1bn of its shares in Mobileye, and was “within a couple of weeks” of closing a deal to sell 51 per cent of its stake in its specialist chips unit Altera to private equity firm Silver Lake, he noted.

SoftBank also made a $2bn investment in Intel last week. Zinsner pushed back against the idea that it had been co-ordinated with the government, as SoftBank chief executive Masayoshi Son pursues an ever-closer relationship with Trump.

“It was coincidence that it fell all in the same week,” Zinsner said.



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Nuclear fusion developer raises almost $900mn in new funding

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One of the most advanced nuclear fusion developers has raised about $900mn from backers including Nvidia and Morgan Stanley, as it races to complete a demonstration plant in the US and commercialise the nascent energy technology.   

Commonwealth Fusion Systems plans to use the money to complete its Sparc fusion demonstration machine and begin work on developing a power plant in Virginia. The group secured a deal in June to supply 200 megawatts of electricity to technology giant Google.

The Google deal was one of only a handful of such commercial agreements in the sector and placed CFS at the forefront of fusion companies trying to perfect the technology and develop a commercially viable machine.

CFS has raised almost $3bn since it was spun out of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2018, drawing investors amid heightened interest in nuclear to meet surging energy demand from artificial intelligence.

“Investors recognise that CFS is making fusion power a reality. They see that we are executing and delivering on our objectives,” said Bob Mumgaard, chief executive and co-founder of CFS. 

New investors in CFS’s latest funding round, which raised $863mn, include NVentures, Nvidia’s venture capital arm, Morgan Stanley’s Counterpoint Global and a consortium of 12 Japanese companies led by Mitsui & Co.

Nuclear fusion seeks to produce clean energy by combining atoms in a manner that releases a significant amount of energy. In contrast, fission — the process used in conventional nuclear power — splits heavy atoms such as uranium into smaller atoms, releasing heat.

CFS is also planning to build the world’s first large-scale fusion power plant in Virginia, which is home to the largest concentration of data centres in the world.

BloombergNEF estimates that US data centre power demand will more than double to 78GW by 2035, from about 35GW last year, and nuclear energy start-ups already have raised more than $3bn in 2025, a 400 per cent increase on 2024 levels.

But experts have warned that addressing the technological challenges to the development of fusion would be expensive, putting into question the viability of the technology.

No group has yet been able to produce more energy from a fusion reaction than the system itself consumes despite decades of experimentation.

“Fusion is radically difficult compared to fission,” said Mark Nelson, managing director of the consultancy Radiant Energy Group, pointing to the incredibly high temperatures and pressures required to combine atoms.

“The hard part is not making fusion reactors. Every step forward towards what may be a dead end economically, looks like something that justifies another billion or a Nobel Prize.



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