Events & Conferences
Developing a model to offer fashion products for diverse tastes

One ongoing challenge faced by online retailers is how to optimally select the subset of fashion products to offer and how much inventory to procure before the start of the selling season. Deciding which subset of products to offer from a larger catalog of products is known as the assortment optimization problem. Assortment optimization and inventory planning for fashion products is made complex not only because of the need to forecast demand months in advance for new products, but also because customers may choose to substitute between different products if their first choice is not available. In the online world, an additional complexity is that customers interact with the website in a very different way than the way they purchase in brick-and-mortar stores.
“Addressing assortment and inventory planning together is a hard problem around which we have limited published literature, and limited applied solutions in industry,” says Salal Humair, a senior principal scientist in Amazon’s Supply Chain Optimization Technologies (SCOT) organization.
Now, thanks to ideas sparked in part by a former Amazon intern, a team of scientists at Amazon and Columbia University have taken significant steps toward developing a practical solution for this highly complex problem.
“We wanted to develop a scientific way to solve this very hard problem which is implementable and scalable in practice,” says Humair, who is responsible for developing optimization models for Amazon’s supply chain planning decisions.
The result is a paper that published in May 2021 which Humair co-authored with other Amazon scientists and university collaborators: “Joint Assortment and Inventory Planning for Heavy Tailed Demand”.
In the paper, the authors describe an approach that “balances expected revenue and inventory costs by identifying a subset of products that can pool demand from the universe of products, without excessively cannibalizing revenue due to the substitution behavior of customers.” The authors “also present a multi-step choice model that captures the complex choice process in an online retail setting, usually characterized by a large universe of products and a heavy-tailed distribution of mean demands.”
The project originated after Omar El Housni, then a graduate student at Columbia University, had completed two internships in SCOT. Inspired by his experience, he and Vineet Goyal, a professor in the Industrial Engineering and Operations Research Department at Columbia, developed a research proposal with their Amazon partners to address assortment and inventory planning together. Goyal, who is also an Amazon Scholar, focuses his research on sequential decision problems under uncertainty.
Ali Sadighian, a senior science manager at SCOT who had been El Housni’s manager during his internship, worked on the proposal with Goyal, El Housni and Humair. Goyal then applied for and received a 2018 Amazon Research Award, which helped fund another of Vineet’s students, Omar Mouchtaki, to work on the paper. Mouchtaki also interned at Amazon.
“If the internships hadn’t happened, we would not have explored this problem,” says Goyal. Sadighian notes that Amazon science interns are exposed to a wealth of problems that they often continue to think about even after the end of the experience, which was the case with El Housni. “When you expose the right person to the right domain, you get these great collaborations,” says Sadighian.
Although the research in the paper did not rely on Amazon data, its conclusions are relevant to the company’s operations.
“We wanted to create an approximation of reality that is useful for Amazon too,” says Sadighian. “So, it doesn’t need to be based on Amazon data, but it needs to somewhat reflect reality, and how you present a plausible approximation of reality as it pertains to Amazon is a tough problem.”
Amazon Science asked Sadighian, Goyal, and Salal three questions about how their group came up with a model that successfully captures some of the complexities of the customer’s decision-making process and informs inventory planning for products that can be easily substituted for one another.
Q. Why is it particularly challenging to predict the demand for substitutable products and how does Amazon’s scale add to the complexity of this problem?
Goyal: When you have substitutable products, especially at the scale of Amazon, the demand of each individual product actually depends on what else you are offering. The demand depends on what selection you carry and the number of selection possibilities is enormous at Amazon scale. So that is the underlying complexity in modeling demand for substitutable products.
There is another complexity addressed in this paper. Even if the demand model is known, planning for the inventory is still a complicated problem because of the substitution happening in a dynamic manner.
Let’s say we offer three types of chocolate with different cocoa percentages: 90%, 80%, and 70%. The customers all prefer 90% the most, but will substitute to chocolates with lower percentages of cocoa if 90% is not available. We start with enough inventory for all of them. In the beginning, only 90% chocolate will sell. Once it runs out, 80% sells and then 70%. So, the demand of each product will depend on what other products still exist in the selection and this is a dynamic process.
Sadighian: It is not easy to develop a tractable model for the behavior of customers who, in the presence of a product, have one behavior, and in the absence of that product, have other behaviors. Now, consider that sometimes the same product might have different functions for different customers, and thence customers might go in different directions to substitute them.
Humair: If you have three products and their demand is independent, you forecast every one of them and the sum of their demands will be the sum of the individual forecasts. But, in this case, what’s happening is that if I have two products, and I’m adding a third, depending on which third I add, the forecast for all three will change. I can create a number of potential subsets and every subset will have a different forecast for each one of the items depending on which other items are put in that subset. That leads to an exponential number of possibilities for forecasts. It depends on the subset of the catalog and number of subsets is astronomically large.
Q. How are you able to capture within this model the complex choice process of the customer in an online retail setting?
Humair: The process by which customers make choices on the Amazon Store is extremely complex. Describing that process in mathematical form is one problem. Now the second problem is, if that process is so complicated, we don’t want the assortment and inventory optimization model to be so tied into that complexity. One of the clever approaches we took is that we put an abstraction layer between the customer choice process and the problem of what subset and how much to buy. And the way we do that is building on something that Vineet has really pioneered in his research. It’s called a Markov chain choice model.
Goyal: This Markov chain choice model is defined by a substitution matrix: What is the probability of substituting to another product if your first choice is not available? So, although the choice process itself is complex, we abstracted away the complexity using this substitution matrix. And therefore, we’re able to design an algorithm that does not really change with the complexities of the choice process. Tomorrow, we may introduce another novelty in the model that captures reality better in the choice process, but we still would be able to use the same algorithm, because there’s this abstraction layer that allows us to go from any model on the customer choice side to the optimization algorithm on the assortment and inventory side.
Sadighian: The way I think about it is that, whenever you make a product-purchase decision, you have a large number of signals thrown at you. But we should realize that if we focus on a few crucial pieces of information, the other details become less relevant. To take the chocolate example: the color, the shape, all of those may be important. But at the end of the day, just tell me (Ali) the cocoa percentage and maybe that’s the most important thing for me. The beauty of an abstraction is that it tells you: “Relax, you don’t need to throw in everything and the kitchen sink to make a decision. You only need to know a few pieces of (potentially synthesized) crucial information.”
Q. What is unique about this model and what are the limitations of previous models that this work overcomes?
Goyal: Prior work in this area relied on the structural form of the choice process. So, the assortment optimization algorithms used the properties of the choice process. And if the modeling of that choice process changes slightly, that optimization algorithm doesn’t remain usable. So, abstracting it away gives us this significant benefit, and I think is one thing unique to this work.
Humair: What we have done is taken the first step towards solving a more complicated version of the assortment and inventory optimization problem, which is a sequential decision-making problem. You solve the same problem as we are doing in this paper, but you do it with only a limited amount of information, i.e., the catalog of the current vendor. And then you go to the next vendor and decide the additional assortment. What is very promising about this work is that it gives you the stepping stone to actually solving real and practical problems, in a manner that each step forward can build on the past work rather than having to throw it away.
Sadighian: This is the very first step, but maybe one of the most concrete first steps toward solving practical assortment and inventory problems. These first steps either put you on the right path, which we hope is the case, or they send you into the weeds. There is a tremendous amount of work left to be done. But the fact that it shows you the light at the end of the tunnel is maybe the biggest piece of the puzzle for me coming out of this.
I’d like to highlight the genesis of this work. It all started with Omar El Housni interning with us while he was Vineet’s student. Another student of Vineet, Omar Mouchtaki, who interned with us this year is also working on this problem. These relationships demonstrate that if you pick a rich area, there are many avenues to be explored. Omar El Housni is now a professor at Cornell Tech and I suspect he will continue to work on this area. Even if there are bits and pieces that we cannot talk about because they are Amazon internal research, the external evidence of our work (this paper) is out there and our colleagues are continuing to work on it. There is so much left to be done that, that I don’t see how we can afford not to continue working on it.
Events & Conferences
A New Ranking Framework for Better Notification Quality on Instagram

- We’re sharing how Meta is applying machine learning (ML) and diversity algorithms to improve notification quality and user experience.
- We’ve introduced a diversity-aware notification ranking framework to reduce uniformity and deliver a more varied and engaging mix of notifications.
- This new framework reduces the volume of notifications and drives higher engagement rates through more diverse outreach.
Notifications are one of the most powerful tools for bringing people back to Instagram and enhancing engagement. Whether it’s a friend liking your photo, another close friend posting a story, or a suggestion for a reel you might enjoy, notifications help surface moments that matter in real time.
Instagram leverages machine learning (ML) models to decide who should get a notification, when to send it, and what content to include. These models are trained to optimize for user positive engagement such as click-through-rate (CTR) – the probability of a user clicking a notification – as well as other metrics like time spent.
However, while engagement-optimized models are effective at driving interactions, there’s a risk that they might overprioritize the product types and authors someone has previously engaged with. This can lead to overexposure to the same creators or the same product types while overlooking other valuable and diverse experiences.
This means people could miss out on content that would give them a more balanced, satisfying, and enriched experience. Over time, this can make notifications feel spammy and increase the likelihood that people will disable them altogether.
The real challenge lies in finding the right balance: How can we introduce meaningful diversity into the notification experience without sacrificing the personalization and relevance people on Instagram have come to expect?
To tackle this, we’ve introduced a diversity-aware notification ranking framework that helps deliver more diverse, better curated, and less repetitive notifications. This framework has significantly reduced daily notification volume while improving CTR. It also introduces several benefits:
- The extensibility of incorporating customized soft penalty (demotion) logic for each dimension, enabling more adaptive and sophisticated diversity strategies.
- The flexibility of tuning demotion strength across dimensions like content, author, and product type via adjustable weights.
- The integration of balancing personalization and diversity, ensuring notifications remain both relevant and varied.
The Risks of Notifications without Diversity
The issue of overexposure in notifications often shows up in two major ways:
Overexposure to the same author: People might receive notifications that are mostly about the same friend. For example, if someone often interacts with content from a particular friend, the system may continue surfacing notifications from that person alone – ignoring other friends they also engage with. This can feel repetitive and one-dimensional, reducing the overall value of notifications.
Overexposure to the same product surface: People might mostly receive notifications from the same product surface such as Stories, even when Feed or Reels could provide value. For example, someone may be interested in both reel and story notifications but has recently interacted more often with stories. Because the system heavily prioritizes past engagement, it sends only story notifications, overlooking the person’s broader interests.
Introducing Instagram’s Diversity-Aware Notification Ranking Framework
Instagram’s diversity-aware notification ranking framework is designed to enhance the notification experience by balancing the predicted potential for user engagement with the need for content diversity. This framework introduces a diversity layer on top of the existing engagement ML models, applying multiplicative penalties to the candidate scores generated by these models, as figure1, below, shows.
The diversity layer evaluates each notification candidate’s similarity to recently sent notifications across multiple dimensions such as content, author, notification type, and product surface. It then applies carefully calibrated penalties—expressed as multiplicative demotion factors—to downrank candidates that are too similar or repetitive. The adjusted scores are used to re-rank the candidates, enabling the system to select notifications that maintain high engagement potential while introducing meaningful diversity. In the end, the quality bar selects the top-ranked candidate that passes both the ranking and diversity criteria.
Mathematical Formulation
Within the diversity layer, we apply a multiplicative demotion factor to the base relevance score of each candidate. Given a notification candidate 𝑐, we compute its final score as the product of its base ranking score and a diversity demotion multiplier:
where R(c) represents the candidate’s base relevance score, and D(c) ∈ [0,1] is a penalty factor that reduces the score based on similarity to recently sent notifications. We define a set of semantic dimensions (e.g., author, product type) along which we want to promote diversity. For each dimension i, we compute a similarity signal pi(c) between candidate c and the set of historical notifications H, using a maximal marginal relevance (MMR) approach:
where simi(·,·) is a predefined similarity function for dimension i. In our baseline implementation, pi(c) is binary: it equals 1 if the similarity exceeds a threshold 𝜏i and 0 otherwise.
The final demotion multiplier is defined as:
where each wi ∈ [0,1] controls the strength of demotion for its respective dimension. This formulation ensures that candidates similar to previously delivered notifications along one or more dimensions are proportionally down-weighted, reducing redundancy and promoting content variation. The use of a multiplicative penalty allows for flexible control across multiple dimensions, while still preserving high-relevance candidates.
The Future of Diversity-Aware Ranking
As we continue evolving our notification diversity-aware ranking system, a next step is to introduce more adaptive, dynamic demotion strategies. Instead of relying on static rules, we plan to make demotion strength responsive to notification volume and delivery timing. For example, as a user receives more notifications—especially of similar type or in rapid succession—the system progressively applies stronger penalties to new notification candidates, effectively mitigating overwhelming experiences caused by high notification volume or tightly spaced deliveries.
Longer term, we see an opportunity to bring large language models (LLMs) into the diversity pipeline. LLMs can help us go beyond surface-level rules by understanding semantic similarity between messages and rephrasing content in more varied, user-friendly ways. This would allow us to personalize notification experiences with richer language and improved relevance while maintaining diversity across topics, tone, and timing.
Events & Conferences
Simplifying book discovery with ML-powered visual autocomplete suggestions

Every day, millions of customers search for books in various formats (audiobooks, e-books, and physical books) across Amazon and Audible. Traditional keyword autocomplete suggestions, while helpful, usually require several steps before customers find their desired content. Audible took on the challenge of making book discovery more intuitive and personalized while reducing the number of steps to purchase.
We developed an instant visual autocomplete system that enhances the search experience across Amazon and Audible. As the user begins typing a query, our solution provides visual previews with book covers, enabling direct navigation to relevant landing pages instead of the search result page. It also delivers real-time personalized format recommendations and incorporates multiple searchable entities, such as book pages, author pages, and series pages.
Our system needed to understand user intent from just a few keystrokes and determine the most relevant books to display, all while maintaining low latency for millions of queries. Using historical search data, we match keystrokes to products, transforming partial inputs into meaningful search suggestions. To ensure quality, we implemented confidence-based filtering mechanisms, which are particularly important for distinguishing between general queries like “mystery” and specific title searches. To reflect customers’ most recent interests, the system applies time-decay functions to long historical user interaction data.
To meet the unique requirements of each use case, we developed two distinct technical approaches. On Audible, we deployed a deep pairwise-learning-to-rank (DeepPLTR) model. The DeepPLTR model considers pairs of books and learns to assign a higher score to the one that better matches the customer query.
The DeepPLTR model’s architecture consists of three specialized towers. The left tower factors in contextual features and recent search patterns using a long-short-term-memory model, which processes data sequentially and considers its prior decisions when issuing a new term in the sequence. The middle tower handles keyword and item engagement history. The right tower factors in customer taste preferences and product descriptions to enable personalization. The model learns from paired examples, but at runtime, it relies on books’ absolute scores to assemble a ranked list.
For Amazon, we implemented a two-stage modeling approach involving a probabilistic information-retrieval model to determine the book title that best matches each keyword and a second model that personalizes the book format (audiobooks, e-books, and physical books). This dual-strategy approach maintains low latency while still enabling personalization.
In practice, a customer who types “dungeon craw” in the search bar now sees a visual recommendation for the book Dungeon Crawler Carl, complete with book cover, reducing friction by bypassing a search results page and sending the customer directly to the product detail page. On Audible, the system also personalizes autocomplete results and enriches the discovery experience with relevant connections. These include links to the author’s complete works (Matt Dinniman’s author page) and, for titles that belong to a series, links to the full collection (such as the Dungeon Crawler Carl series).
On Amazon, when the customer clicks on the title, the model personalizes the right book-format (audiobooks, e-books, physical books) recommendation and directs the customer to the right product detail page.
In both cases, after the customer has entered a certain number of keystrokes, the system employs a model to detect customer intent (e.g., book title intent for Amazon or author intent for Audible) and determine which visual widget should be displayed.
Audible and Amazon books’ visual autocomplete provides customers with more relevant content more rapidly than traditional autocomplete, and its direct navigation reduces the number of steps to find and access desired books — all while handling millions of queries at low latency.
This technology is not just about making book discovery easier; it is laying the foundation for future improvements in search personalization and visual discovery across Amazon’s ecosystem.
Acknowledgements: Jiun Kim, Sumit Khetan, Armen Stepanyan, Jack Xuan, Nathan Brothers, Eddie Chen, Vincent Lee, Soumy Ladha, Justine Luo, Yuchen Zeng, David Torres, Gali Deutsch, Chaitra Ramdas, Christopher Gomez, Sharmila Tamby, Melissa Ma, Cheng Luo, Jeffrey Jiang, Pavel Fedorov, Ronald Denaux, Aishwarya Vasanth, Azad Bajaj, Mary Heer, Adam Lowe, Jenny Wang, Cameron Cramer, Emmanuel Ankrah, Lydia Diaz, Suzette Islam, Fei Gu, Phil Weaver, Huan Xue, Kimmy Dai, Evangeline Yang, Chao Zhu, Anvy Tran, Jessica Wu, Xiaoxiong Huang, Jiushan Yang
Events & Conferences
Revolutionizing warehouse automation with scientific simulation

Modern warehouses rely on complex networks of sensors to enable safe and efficient operations. These sensors must detect everything from packages and containers to robots and vehicles, often in changing environments with varying lighting conditions. More important for Amazon, we need to be able to detect barcodes in an efficient way.
The Amazon Robotics ID (ARID) team focuses on solving this problem. When we first started working on it, we faced a significant bottleneck: optimizing sensor placement required weeks or months of physical prototyping and real-world testing, severely limiting our ability to explore innovative solutions.
To transform this process, we developed Sensor Workbench (SWB), a sensor simulation platform built on NVIDIA’s Isaac Sim that combines parallel processing, physics-based sensor modeling, and high-fidelity 3-D environments. By providing virtual testing environments that mirror real-world conditions with unprecedented accuracy, SWB allows our teams to explore hundreds of configurations in the same amount of time it previously took to test just a few physical setups.
Camera and target selection/positioning
Sensor Workbench users can select different cameras and targets and position them in 3-D space to receive real-time feedback on barcode decodability.
Three key innovations enabled SWB: a specialized parallel-computing architecture that performs simulation tasks across the GPU; a custom CAD-to-OpenUSD (Universal Scene Description) pipeline; and the use of OpenUSD as the ground truth throughout the simulation process.
Parallel-computing architecture
Our parallel-processing pipeline leverages NVIDIA’s Warp library with custom computation kernels to maximize GPU utilization. By maintaining 3-D objects persistently in GPU memory and updating transforms only when objects move, we eliminate redundant data transfers. We also perform computations only when needed — when, for instance, a sensor parameter changes, or something moves. By these means, we achieve real-time performance.
Visualization methods
Sensor Workbench users can pick sphere- or plane-based visualizations, to see how the positions and rotations of individual barcodes affect performance.
This architecture allows us to perform complex calculations for multiple sensors simultaneously, enabling instant feedback in the form of immersive 3-D visuals. Those visuals represent metrics that barcode-detection machine-learning models need to work, as teams adjust sensor positions and parameters in the environment.
CAD to USD
Our second innovation involved developing a custom CAD-to-OpenUSD pipeline that automatically converts detailed warehouse models into optimized 3-D assets. Our CAD-to-USD conversion pipeline replicates the structure and content of models created in the modeling program SolidWorks with a 1:1 mapping. We start by extracting essential data — including world transforms, mesh geometry, material properties, and joint information — from the CAD file. The full assembly-and-part hierarchy is preserved so that the resulting USD stage mirrors the CAD tree structure exactly.
To ensure modularity and maintainability, we organize the data into separate USD layers covering mesh, materials, joints, and transforms. This layered approach ensures that the converted USD file faithfully retains the asset structure, geometry, and visual fidelity of the original CAD model, enabling accurate and scalable integration for real-time visualization, simulation, and collaboration.
OpenUSD as ground truth
The third important factor was our novel approach to using OpenUSD as the ground truth throughout the entire simulation process. We developed custom schemas that extend beyond basic 3-D-asset information to include enriched environment descriptions and simulation parameters. Our system continuously records all scene activities — from sensor positions and orientations to object movements and parameter changes — directly into the USD stage in real time. We even maintain user interface elements and their states within USD, enabling us to restore not just the simulation configuration but the complete user interface state as well.
This architecture ensures that when USD initial configurations change, the simulation automatically adapts without requiring modifications to the core software. By maintaining this live synchronization between the simulation state and the USD representation, we create a reliable source of truth that captures the complete state of the simulation environment, allowing users to save and re-create simulation configurations exactly as needed. The interfaces simply reflect the state of the world, creating a flexible and maintainable system that can evolve with our needs.
Application
With SWB, our teams can now rapidly evaluate sensor mounting positions and verify overall concepts in a fraction of the time previously required. More importantly, SWB has become a powerful platform for cross-functional collaboration, allowing engineers, scientists, and operational teams to work together in real time, visualizing and adjusting sensor configurations while immediately seeing the impact of their changes and sharing their results with each other.
New perspectives
In projection mode, an explicit target is not needed. Instead, Sensor Workbench uses the whole environment as a target, projecting rays from the camera to identify locations for barcode placement. Users can also switch between a comprehensive three-quarters view and the perspectives of individual cameras.
Due to the initial success in simulating barcode-reading scenarios, we have expanded SWB’s capabilities to incorporate high-fidelity lighting simulations. This allows teams to iterate on new baffle and light designs, further optimizing the conditions for reliable barcode detection, while ensuring that lighting conditions are safe for human eyes, too. Teams can now explore various lighting conditions, target positions, and sensor configurations simultaneously, gleaning insights that would take months to accumulate through traditional testing methods.
Looking ahead, we are working on several exciting enhancements to the system. Our current focus is on integrating more-advanced sensor simulations that combine analytical models with real-world measurement feedback from the ARID team, further increasing the system’s accuracy and practical utility. We are also exploring the use of AI to suggest optimal sensor placements for new station designs, which could potentially identify novel configurations that users of the tool might not consider.
Additionally, we are looking to expand the system to serve as a comprehensive synthetic-data generation platform. This will go beyond just simulating barcode-detection scenarios, providing a full digital environment for testing sensors and algorithms. This capability will let teams validate and train their systems using diverse, automatically generated datasets that capture the full range of conditions they might encounter in real-world operations.
By combining advanced scientific computing with practical industrial applications, SWB represents a significant step forward in warehouse automation development. The platform demonstrates how sophisticated simulation tools can dramatically accelerate innovation in complex industrial systems. As we continue to enhance the system with new capabilities, we are excited about its potential to further transform and set new standards for warehouse automation.
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