Business
Business Brief this week: A stampede, a gold rush, and an AI arms race
Good morning. This week’s AI for Good Summit in Geneva is showing how the technology’s innovations are also pushing global alliances into unfamiliar territory. That’s in focus today – along with this year’s Calgary Stampede and a gold rush that’s obscuring an inconvenient truth about Canada’s exports.
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On our radar
Tomorrow: Ahead of the July 9 deadline set by Trump for countries to strike trade deals with the U.S., the president said the White House would begin sending letters over the weekend to countries in batches of 10 to notify them of the tariff rates they can expect.
This week: The Calgary Stampede, which opened on Friday and runs through July 13, is known for many things: rodeo, pancakes and denim as far as the eye can see. But its real currency is connection. For 10 days, every bar and rooftop patio in the city is turned into a pop-up boardroom.
This year’s edition lands at an uneasy moment. Alberta’s energy sector has big wins to toast – LNG exports have begun from the West Coast, the long-delayed Trans Mountain pipeline is pumping and Ottawa is suddenly talking about Canada as an “energy superpower.” The city’s mood is buoyant. But a cautious kind of buoyancy, if there can be such a thing: Political uncertainty still looms large, from Mark Carney’s early tenure in Ottawa to the underwhelming response to Alberta’s proposed new pipeline.
On the books: Earnings and economic events are light, but Canada’s recent trade report is a reminder of how hard domestic exporters are being hit as Carney presses for a tariff-free deal with the U.S.
Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Innovation Evan Solomon on Parliament Hill June 19.PATRICK DOYLE/The Canadian Press
In focus
How global forces have shaped Canada’s priorities
The UN’s AI for Good summit this week is revealing how countries are racing to build sovereign computing infrastructure that is reliant on foreign investment.
In an attempt to capitalize on the economic promise of artificial intelligence, Western governments are investing in domestic data centres, drafting AI rules, and striking deals with countries that, less than a decade ago, might have faced sharper scrutiny.
By turning to investors such as Saudi Arabia, critics warn that attempts to reduce reliance on U.S. tech giants risk entrenching new forms of dependence on states with close ties to China and deeply contested human rights records.
Both Canada and the U.S. have set aside recent ruptures over human rights in favour of strategic and economic interests.
Canada’s 2018 standoff – sparked by then–foreign affairs minister Chrystia Freeland’s criticism of Saudi Arabia’s arrest of women’s rights activists – formally ended in 2023 when the two governments restored ties on the basis of “mutual respect and common interests.”
For the U.S., Russia’s invasion of Ukraine heightened the need for oil market stability and stronger regional alliances, prompting Washington to re-engage with Riyadh despite earlier condemnations of the kingdom’s role in the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi. (During his first presidential campaign, Joe Biden pledged to make Saudi Arabia “pay the price” and called the country a “pariah” with “very little social redeeming value.”)
Human-rights advocates have remained critical of the UN for inviting Saudi officials to the AI summit – and concern remains over Riyadh’s expanding ties with China, which include co-operation on data centres, chip development and surveillance technologies that could complicate Western efforts to build secure, independent AI systems.
In May, President Donald Trump signed a US$600-billion strategic agreement with Saudi Arabia, including more than US$40-billion earmarked for artificial intelligence and related infrastructure.
Canada, too, is open to discussions with Saudi Arabia to support domestic data-centre expansion. In a recent interview with The Globe’s Joe Castaldo and Pippa Norman, federal AI minister Evan Solomon said Ottawa is in search of “pockets of capital” to help build sovereign capacity, while insisting any agreements would be pursued with “eyes wide open” and preserve Canadian oversight.
“Diplomatic ties and investment does not mean you agree with governments,” he said. “We can’t look at AI as a walled-off garden. Like, ‘Oh, we cannot ever take money from X or Y.’”
Ottawa’s openness was underscored last week when Castaldo reported that U.S. data-centre firm CoreWeave Inc. will soon operate a site in Cambridge, Ont., with Canadian AI startup Cohere Inc. – backed by $240-million from a federal fund – as a customer.
British-Canadian AI guru Geoffrey Hinton, who is presenting tomorrow, told The Globe he planned on telling Solomon that Canada needs to regulate AI when the two met last week. But he acknowledged a trade-off.
“The big problem is that unless you can get international agreements, countries that don’t regulate will have an advantage over countries that do. That’s the same for exploiting natural resources.”
It’s just one issue for Canada to tackle as it navigates the contradictions of a sovereignty strategy built on foreign capital, no clear regulatory framework and a bit of moral flexibility.
Charted
What the golden shine is hiding
Canada’s trade deficit with the world narrowed in May from a record high the previous month.
But tariffs continued to weigh on exports to the United States – and the rise in prices for gold skewed the picture.
Canada’s trade deficit with the world – in very technical terms according to The Globe’s Jason Kirby, “a measure of how much more stuff we buy from other countries than sell to them” – fell to $5.9-billion in May from a record high of $7.6-billion in April.
But after stripping out imports and exports of the gold category, Kirby observes, Canada’s trade deficit widened to $10.3-billion.
Bookmarked
On our reading list
Bednar: If a toaster burns you, you can sue. But if Big Tech burns you, you’re out of luck.
Keller: Trump has yet to kill the golden goose that is the U.S. economy. But he’s working on it.
Hirsch: To increase defence spending, Canada must cut deeper, tax harder and borrow more – all at once.
Morning update
Stock markets were mixed amid confusion as U.S. officials flagged a delay on tariffs but failed to provide specifics on the changes. Wall Street futures were in negative territory while TSX futures pointed higher.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.34 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 edged higher 0.13 per cent, Germany’s DAX gained 0.77 per cent and France’s CAC 40 rose 0.25 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.56 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.12 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 73.19 U.S. cents.
Business
Trump steps up trade wars with 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea | Trump tariffs
Donald Trump unveiled plans to step up his trade wars on Monday, announcing Japan and South Korea will soon face US tariffs of 25% in a significant escalation of his controversial economic strategy.
The US president, who indicated that he would notify as many as as 15 countries of new, higher rates on Monday, posted copies of letters addressed to the leaders of Japan and South Korea on social media. Trump said the rates were set to go into effect 1 August.
The letters were largely identical and informed the leaders that there will be no tariffs if their countries “decide to build or manufacture product within the United States”.
Trump also threatened higher tariffs if the countries place additional tariffs on US exports. “If for any reason you decide to raise your tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto that 25% we charge,” he wrote.
Trump initially announced a slate of so-called reciprocal tariffs in April, on what the White House dubbed “liberation day”, with some countries facing rates as high as 50%
While he paused those tariffs for 90 days amid market turmoil, this reprieve is due to expire on Wednesday 9 July.
Trump officials initially suggested they would strike dozens of deals with key economies during the pause, but have since indicated that they would use an extension to continue talks.
The treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said last month the administration was aiming to wrap up negotiations by Labor Day on 1 September.
The US has so far settled deals with three countries: the UK, China and Vietnam, and Bessent said there were over a dozen countries the US is still trying to negotiate with.
The new August deadline for countries without a deal amounts to a further three-week reprieve, but also triggers fresh uncertainty for importers because of the lack of clarity around the tariffs.
As the July deadline has approached, Trump’s officials have been racing to broker deals. Over the weekend, one European diplomat said the US may have to “show muscle if the deal is not good enough”.
The White House also reached an impasse in negotiations with Japan, despite initial optimism. Trump on Friday said it is “much easier to send a letter” and that the offers are “take it or leave it”.
On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 sank by almost 0.9% after Trump posted his first letters.
Though the US stock market has largely recovered from the uncertainty around Trump’s trade war, the US dollar still remains weakened after months of trade fights. At the beginning of this year, the dollar had its worst six months in over 50 years, falling 10.8% since the start of 2025.
Business
Goods from Japan and South Korea hit with 25% levy
The US plans to impose a 25% tax on products entering the country from South Korea and Japan on 1 August, President Donald Trump has said.
He announced the tariffs in a post on social media, sharing letters he said had been sent to leaders of the two countries.
The White House has said it expects to send similar messages to dozens of countries in coming days as the 90-day pause it placed on some of its most aggressive tariffs is set to expire.
The first two letters suggest that Trump remains committed to his initial push for tariffs, with little change from the rates announced in April.
At that time, he said he was looking to hit goods from Japan with duties of 24% and charge a 25% on products made in South Korea.
Those tariffs were included in a bigger “Liberation Day” announcement, which imposed tariffs on goods from countries around the world.
After outcry and turmoil on financial markets following the initial tariffs announcement, Trump suspended some of the import taxes to allow for talks. That deadline is set to expire on 9 July.
On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expected “a busy couple of days”.
“We’ve had a lot of people change their tune in terms of negotiations. So my mailbox was full last night with a lot of new offers, a lot of new proposals,” he told US business broadcaster CNBC.
Business
Billionaire Labour backer John Caudwell ‘nervous’ about Starmer | Labour
Labour’s most high-profile billionaire backer, who switched allegiance from the Conservatives, has said he is “increasingly nervous” about the government’s direction and is in “despair of politicians”.
John Caudwell, the Phones 4u founder, said Labour’s winter fuel payments cut was a “fiasco” and ministers were not doing nearly enough to attract investment into the UK.
Caudwell, who has pledged to give away more than 70% of his £1.58bn fortune, said a wealth tax would be “very destructive” to growth.
The businessman – a prominent Brexit supporter who backed the Conservative party for many years – said he could never support Nigel Farage’s Reform UK because he was convinced of the need to tackle the climate crisis and urged Labour to be bolder on net zero.
Caudwell was speaking at the launch of a report from his charity Caudwell Youth, urging more investment in early intervention in the lives of disadvantaged young people and a renewed focus on mental health.
He said despite his own background in mobile phones, he believed social media and AI were a “disaster” for anxiety and feared a world where AI fakes were the norm.
Caudwell said he welcomed some important changes from Labour, including to pension funds, planning changes and green energy, though he said schemes such as Great British Energy could go further and were “lacking in ambition”.
He said Labour had been poor at telling the right story and the winter fuel saga and the welfare rebellion had been unnerving. “They’re just going to be tossed from pillar to post, that’s how it feels,” he said.
“I am becoming increasingly nervous about what Labour are doing and especially when they get into this mess over the welfare bill because it feels as though there’s anarchy within the party.”
Caudwell said he had repeatedly offered advice to Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, but had not received much interest in his ideas. “There seems to be a lack of that commercial intellect that we desperately need in government to make long-term right decisions,” he said.
He said he knew many wealthy individuals and business owners moving to Dubai or Monaco, and that the UK needed to become a more attractive place to invest.
“I despair of politicians in general,” Caudwell said. “You’ve got to attract inward investment to create high-paid jobs and in technology, sciences and especially in the environment, since that’s going to be the absolute future of mankind.
“There’s so much we need to do and there’s so little we do, and that was the Conservative party before and now it’s the Labour party.”
Caudwell said he did not regret switching his allegiance from the Conservatives, having previously donated £500,000 to them under Boris Johnson. “I don’t regret it. But do I regret some of the decisions they’ve made? Absolutely I do. And I think they could have done so much better.”
Senior Labour figures have suggested the party should introduce a wealth tax on rich people in the budget. The former Labour leader Neil Kinnock said on Sunday such a gesture “in the direction of equity fairness would make a big difference”.
But Caudwell said a wealth tax combined with other measures Labour had introduced would be a major disincentive for investors, even if he would personally be happy to pay.
“I would be very in favour of a wealth tax if it was global,” he said. “The rich-poor divide is the evil of society and how do we fix that?”
But he said that changes to agricultural property relief, changes to workers’ rights and increases to the minimum wage and employers’ national insurance was creating a more difficult climate for business.
“I think you can do some of those things, but you just can’t do everything,” he said. “You introduce a wealth tax on top of that and it just isn’t going to work. I know people that are leaving as we speak. They’re going to Monaco, they’re going to Dubai.
“I bet 10 people in the last three or four months have said, ‘Why don’t you go to Dubai?’ Well, I don’t want to go to Dubai, I’m British, I love it here. I don’t mind paying my taxes.
“I want to influence rich people to do more philanthropically and to pay taxes. A wealth tax would be very destructive on top. I don’t say that because I’m trying to protect my money – because I’m giving it away.”
Caudwell said Starmer should be bolder in his second year as prime minister. “I’d be a bit like a [version of] Trump who’s smart and who’s humanitarian. And I’d force things through. You wouldn’t do any of the same things [as Trump], but it is what we need.”
The businessman has previously been a guest of Farage on GB News and said the pair agreed on a lot of topics. But he ruled out backing Reform, calling Farage a “climate sceptic” and said the climate crisis was “the most crucial thing we’re facing”.
“I would be concerned that he’s too much of a Trumpite … and that would not be healthy for Britain at all. But a lot of what he says makes a lot of sense to me,” he said. “He’s able to talk very directly to people’s concerns.”
Caudwell said he would continue to urge a focus on young people and how investment in prevention would save billions in the long run for the justice system and the NHS.
“I think social media is disastrous for people’s mental health,” he said. “AI is going to be completely disastrous. Even up until probably four or five years ago, if I watched a video, I’d know it was real.
“Now the kids are going to see this stuff, they’re not going to have a clue what’s real. And I think that’s really worrying because our children are going to grow up in this fantasy world where they don’t know right from wrong, fact from fiction.”
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