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Bad data leads to bad policy

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The writer is chair of the UN Statistical Commission

When the UN created a Statistical Commission in 1946, the world was still recovering from the devastation of the second world war. Then, there was broad consensus that only reliable, internationally comparable data could prevent conflict, combat poverty and anchor global co-operation. Nearly 80 years later, this insight remains just as relevant, but the context has changed dramatically.

The world now faces geopolitical and environmental crises as well as a profound digital transformation. Data has become a strategic asset. Controlling it today means influence over the future. The rapid rise of AI, powered by vast volumes of data, presents the UN with a daunting challenge: those who control data today will shape AI tomorrow — and with it, the narratives that define public life. As the influence of commercial platforms and algorithmic systems grows, public institutions are falling behind. National statistical offices — the backbone of independent data production — are under severe financial pressure.

This erosion of institutional capacity could not come at a more critical moment. The UN is unable to respond adequately as it is facing a staffing shortfall itself. Due to ongoing austerity measures at the UN, many senior positions remain vacant, and the director of the UN Statistics Division has retired, with no successor appointed. This comes at a time when bold and innovative initiatives — such as a newly envisioned Trusted Data Observatory — are urgently needed to make official statistics more accessible and machine-readable.

Meanwhile, the threat of targeted disinformation is growing. On social media, distorted or manipulated content spreads at unprecedented speed. Emerging tools like AI chatbots exacerbate the problem. These systems rely on web content, not verified data, and are not built to separate truth from falsehood. Making matters worse, many governments cannot currently make their data usable for AI because it is not standardised, not machine-readable, or not openly accessible. The space for sober, evidence-based discourse is shrinking.

This trend undermines public trust in institutions, strips policymaking of its legitimacy, and jeopardises the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Without reliable data, governments will be flying blind — or worse: they will be deliberately misled.

When countries lose control of their own data, or cannot integrate it into global decision-making processes, they become bystanders to their own development. Decisions about their economies, societies and environments are then outsourced to AI systems trained on skewed, unrepresentative data. The global south is particularly at risk, with many countries lacking access to quality data infrastructures. In countries such as Ethiopia, unverified information spreading rapidly on social media has fuelled misinformation-driven violence.

The Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated that strong data systems enable better crisis response. To counter these risks, the creation of a global Trusted Data Observatory (TDO) is essential. This UN co-ordinated, democratically governed platform would help catalogue and make accessible trusted data around the world — while fully respecting national sovereignty.

It would host a global metadata catalogue, a specialised search engine that indicates what data exists, where it is stored, how it was collected and how reliable it is. Crucially, the raw data would remain under the control of its national producers, ensuring that high-quality data is transparent, interoperable and usable in the AI age. The TDO would support trust where today there is doubt.

History has shown us the consequences of neglecting the public interest in digital spaces. A small number of technology companies now dominate vast swaths of digital infrastructure, control data flows, and shape public discourse at scale. We must not repeat these mistakes with AI and data.

Data must not be treated as the exclusive property of the few. It is a global public good, and the UN must step up as its steward — so that citizens, institutions, and governments alike can make decisions based on trustworthy, inclusive data. Achieving this vision requires political will, investment in institutional and technical capacities, and new partnerships between governments, academia, civil society, and the private sector.

A recent UN conference recognised that high quality data and statistics enable evidence-based policy decisions and enhance accountability and transparency. But action must follow: the future of democracy, development and peace will depend on whether we put trustworthy data at the heart of global governance.



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It’s a bad time to be a graduate

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As they trade the campus for the job market, fresh-faced graduates are quickly turning glum. From North America to Europe, university leavers are struggling to find suitable work. The unemployment rate for recent college graduates in the US has for the first time been consistently above the national level since the Covid-19 pandemic. In the EU, the employment rate of 15- to 25-year-olds has fallen over the past two years. Even the crème de la crème are struggling. The percentage of MBA students from Harvard Business School and MIT Sloan without a job offer three months after graduation has risen sharply since 2021.

The rise of artificial intelligence is a factor. In the US, entry-level tech jobs are coming under pressure as coding tasks are automated. The unemployment rate for computer engineering graduates is 7.5 per cent; the national rate is 4.1 per cent. In Britain, the Big Four accountancy firms have cut back on early-career hires in recent years. Economists and recruiters reckon higher costs are encouraging UK professional services firms to experiment with AI in more administrative tasks usually conducted by juniors.

But the plight of graduates predates the emergence of large language models in the workplace. Other structural developments are at play. As more young people around the world are choosing to go to university, competition for jobs has picked up. In Canada, a popular destination for young graduates, the unemployment rate for those under 25 with post-secondary education was 11.2 per cent in the first quarter. Last year in the UK there were an average of 140 applications per graduate job — the highest in three decades, according to the Institute of Student Employers.

As the supply of learned graduates has risen, demand has come under pressure. Research by Indeed, a job search site, finds that the share of US job postings requiring at least a bachelor’s degree has fallen over the past five years. As for the public sector, civil services are being squeezed across cash-strapped advanced economies. Multinationals with big graduate programmes have also been developing global capability centres in low-cost hubs such as India, where they are outsourcing more skilled roles such as data analytics, rather than just back-office functions.

The recent economic cycle has not been kind to recent graduates either. Many professional services and tech firms overhired in the post-pandemic years, assuming activity would bounce back faster than it did. Recruitment rounds have been subdued since. Demand for investment banking analysts and newly qualified lawyers has also been stunted by subdued global mergers and acquisitions activity. Global economic uncertainty makes it difficult for businesses to plan investments and hiring cycles.

Even if the economic environment improves, graduates will still be contending with the rise of AI in the workplace and competition for entry-level jobs. Ensuring students have a better understanding of post-graduation prospects would help them make wiser course choices. Universities and the private sector will need to collaborate more closely if courses are to evolve with the changing demands of work. Even so, businesses and governments will need to raise support for adult training and life-long learning; three-year degrees can quickly become obsolete. The travails of university graduates should also encourage more investment in non-degree vocational training and apprenticeship opportunities, as businesses have long been calling for.

A surfeit of underemployed elites is bad for society and the economy. To ensure it does not become a feature, education must evolve from being a ticket to a job to a toolkit of skills for a changing world.



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Apple races to box office glory with Brad Pitt’s F1 blockbuster

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More than three years since Apple’s film CODA won the best picture Oscar, the tech company has hit another Hollywood milestone: its first summer blockbuster.

F1, starring Brad Pitt and Damson Idris, has taken in more than $200mn at the global box office since it opened on June 27 and is expected to pass $300mn this weekend. “This is a movie that will run and run and run,” said Jeff Goldstein, distribution chief at Warner Bros, Apple’s partner on the film. “There’s a lot of gas left in the tank.”  

It gave Pitt the best opening weekend in his 37-year acting career and is by far Apple’s best box office showing. By pairing Jerry Bruckheimer — the producer behind hits Top Gun and Beverly Hills Cop — and Joseph Kosinski, the director of Top Gun: Maverick, Apple showed it was serious about filling cinema seats this summer.

Apple is also nearing another potential milestone: making money from a big-budget movie. F1, co-produced by Pitt’s Plan B Entertainment (now controlled by French media group Mediawan) and Jerry Bruckheimer Films, had a production budget of more than $200mn, and distribution costs are estimated at more than $50mn. 

The company’s decision to release the film as a premium on-demand video before it moves to the Apple TV+ streaming service should bring in additional revenue. 

“With F1, they were looking for something very commercial,” said a person close to the studio. “This has proved that they can do theatrical [releases].”

Apple had a lot to prove on that point. In 2023, chief executive Tim Cook travelled to Cannes for the premiere of Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon before it was rolled out to more than 3,600 cinemas in the US and thousands more worldwide.

Lily Gladstone and Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon © Apple TV+

With a budget of more than $200mn, Killers seemed to be a statement of Apple’s intent in the movie business — but it generated only about $160mn in gross box office receipts worldwide. It was followed by two other big-budget releases, Argylle and Ridley Scott’s Napoleon. Both were considered commercial disappointments.  

The performance of those films compounded questions in Hollywood about whether Apple could become a major producer of blockbuster films and streaming shows. Some wondered why it had not bought a Hollywood studio to build up the scale of Apple TV+. As with Amazon, it is viewed by Hollywood studios as something of an outsider, thanks to a corporate culture that remains firmly rooted in tech. 

But with the release of F1, it has followed more Hollywood conventions than in the past. It made Cook and other executives available for a small number of pre-release interviews — the kind of publicity push that is typical for traditional studios but has not previously been employed by Apple. “I think this is a step forward for them in terms of how they want to live in this world,” said an executive at a traditional studio.  

Apple also leaned heavily on its technology and platforms with F1, using iPhone camera tech in real race cars to film high-resolution footage. To encourage people to come and see the film, it offered ticket discounts through Apple Pay and there were special appearances by Cook and Pitt at its flagship retail store in New York. 

Ridley Scott’s Napoleon was a commercial disappointment
Ridley Scott’s Napoleon, starring Joaquin Phoenix​ as Bonaparte, was a commercial disappointment © Aidan Monaghan/Apple TV+

Movie producers describe Apple as aiming for the “elevated mainstream” but dismiss the idea that it only has art house aspirations. The company also appears to be picking up the pace of releases. Spike Lee’s Highest 2 Lowest — a collaboration with indie film studio A24 — will be in cinemas from August 15 and on Apple TV+ from September 5. 

Apple is also working on Matchbox, a live-action feature based on Mattel’s toy car brand and starring John Cena. Matchbox is the first of what is expected to be a number of films based on Mattel products following the massive success of Barbie for Warner Bros. 

Kosinski and Bruckheimer are working together on another as-yet untitled project for Apple. And it is developing Mayday, an adventure film starring Ryan Reynolds and Kenneth Branagh. 

F1 was clearly a step up in its ambitions to create a box office winner, but the movie did not have the easiest of starts: production ground to a halt after a few weeks because of Hollywood strikes in 2023. Restarting the film added extra costs: it was shot on location at racetracks in the UK, US and Abu Dhabi during F1 practice races.

Now, with the success of the film, Apple may have the potential for sequels and its first franchise, said a person close to the studio. Just as importantly, it is expected to increase subscriber numbers on the Apple streaming platform. 

“[F1] really validates what Apple’s doing,” said Kevin Walsh, whose production company has made several films with Apple, including Napoleon and Echo Valley. “They’re in the business to stay and are ready to expand.”



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ChatGPT — the last of the great romantics

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Large language models have their limits — but when it comes to writing break-up letters, they are the perfect tool 



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