David Rye has been hearing a lot less French on the mountain bike trails this summer.

Rye is the outdoor center director at the von Trapp Family Lodge and Resort (yes, of ‘The Sound of Music’ fame). Stowe, Vermont — along with other northern reaches of the state — is a popular locale for Canadian visitors, since it’s easily drivable from the border.

But this year, Rye said, the Quebec license plates usually peppered throughout popular tourist destinations have dissipated. When they do appear, Rye said, “I’m making it a point to thank them profusely for coming and seeing us.”

Meanwhile, in Burlington, Trader Joe’s worker Nicolo Mendolia said he noticed emptier stores during typically busy times. “A big part of that would be that there’s nobody from Quebec coming down,” he said; at the very least, he said, there’s been a lot fewer folks.

This summer, other border states are experiencing a different kind of drought: a dearth of Canadians. Vermont to Canada border crossings were down nearly 39% in July from the year prior, per data compiled by the state. According to Statistics Canada, Canadian spending in the US plunged 7.9% in the first quarter of 2025 from the same time in the year prior. (Ironically, in the same period, Americans made more trips to Canada than the year prior, and spent 27.3% more.)

I witnessed it firsthand while in Vermont for Labor Day. The whole area felt emptier. In past years, we waited in line for hours at certain restaurants, but this year they seated us right away. And, while we were out to dinner, overheard conversations were dominated by the flat vowels of New Englanders and New Yorkers — there wasn’t a Quebecois to be found.

It seems that the US has, in fact, done the unthinkable: pissed off a country known for its friendliness, as President Donald Trump goes back and forth on a trade war and muses about making it into the 51st state. I spoke with Canadian travelers and US businesses, and no one described any outright hostility. Don Dompe, a 61-year-old electrician in Edmonton, likened it to tensions between neighbors — things have soured, and they just might not want to barbecue together anymore.

The lack of Canadians has been felt socioeconomically in the towns on the periphery of what’s historically been a porous border; some worry it could become a lasting trend. To avoid that, they’re pulling out all the stops, writing love letters and renaming streets, in an attempt to get them back.

“The longer-term ramifications are that our economy will suffer and that businesses will close and people will lose their jobs, which is just terrible,” Becca Brown McKnight, a city councilor in Burlington, Vermont, said. “We are really lucky in Vermont to have a robust small business economy; a lot of these are mom and pop shops, and this is people’s entire livelihood.”

Dear Canada, we’ve missed you

Canadians and US border states used to go together like gravy on fried potatoes. Matthew Hall, 48, is one of the disaffected. Hall, who owns an environmental restoration company in Victoria, British Columbia, used to enjoy hopping on the ferry to Port Angeles in Washington State or driving down to Portland for fun.

“Traveling to the States was part of our yearly plans, and I never had any problems doing it,” Hall said. “And honestly, I never even had problems doing it in the first Trump administration.”

But this year, amid tariffs and the President’s brainstorming about making Canada into the 51st state, Hall won’t be visiting his neighbors down south. He doesn’t want to spend any money in the US until, from his perspective, a little bit more stability and sanity return. Hall has already canceled a combination family and business trip to Portland; he said his family is going to explore Canada instead this year, heading over to Quebec.

Hall’s is the type of story that’s breaking hearts south of the border. Visit Rochester, which tries to lure travelers to the New York border city, has launched a campaign called “Dear Canada.”

“We’ve missed you. Your sense of adventure. The way you savor every bite. Your love for the journey and the moments in between,” Rochester wrote in its impassioned plea to visitors. “Here in Rochester, New York, we’re writing this letter, not just to our neighbors to the north, but to the memories we’ve made together and the ones still waiting to happen.”

In Las Vegas, Mayor Shelley Berkley said that the city has seen a decline in visitors from Canada, imploring them to come back; according to calculations from University of Nevada, Las Vegas economics professor Stephen Miller, Canadians bolstered the local economy by $3.6 billion in 2024.

In Burlington, McKnight — the city councilor — helped spearhead a symbolic charge to temporarily rename the city’s main drag to “Rue Canada.” McKnight said that she and her colleagues wanted to take action to show that Vermont continues to be friendly towards Canadians.

“Obviously, we can’t impact immigration policy at the border and deal with some of the really troubling stories that we are hearing about there that’s outside of our jurisdiction, but we can make changes in Burlington itself,” McKnight said.

Since passing that resolution, McKnight said they’ve received dozens of letters in the mail and via email and even received a huge bouquet of flowers in the color of the Canadian flag from a Canadian businesswoman.

“It’s just been this outpouring of stories of how folks have visited Vermont for their whole life, or they have family, or they went to college here. And so I think it really shows the beauty of human connection,” McKnight said.

No new friends

All of the Canadians and Americans I spoke with missed their friends and colleagues on the other side of the border — but they understand that their relationships, both economically and socially, might never be the same.

Dompe, the Gen Xer from Edmonton, has deep ties to the US through family. He’s also met many friends in his travels.

“I still fondly remember the people that I met on bike trips and any trips with the family that we took to Disneyland or Flathead Lake or whatever. The people are always amazing,” Dompe said. “That’s never going to change, but the political landscape has made it such that it’s just, I mean, I don’t think I’ll be making any more new friends.”

After all, as McKnight said, symbolic gestures might not be enough for the Canadians with larger fears about crossing the border. One millennial dual citizen living in Canada used to travel back to the States once or twice a year. This year, they pulled out of a planned retreat in Texas and put summer plans on ice. As a queer and nonbinary person, they said they’re leery of entering the US right now, but they miss what the country has to offer: their friends, the natural beauty, and their beloved childhood chain, Qdoba.

Hall said that he misses hiking in the Olympic Peninsula. Mendolia, who is also a dual citizen and has family still up in Canada, said that he now feels more stressed going up to see them, and that they’re more hesitant to come see him and other family members in the US.

For Dompe, it’s felt like a neighborly betrayal; he cited moments like Canadians welcoming planes affected by 9/11, and the US sending firefighters to Canada to assist with wildfires.

“For older Canadians like myself, the 51st state comment, that whole line of talk that started this whole thing and then just drifted away, that hit a real cord. We’ve shared everything,” he said.