First disclosure – a real person (me) wrote this article, not Artificial Intelligence (AI).  Second disclosure – I am not a technology expert.  In fact, I often say that I was dragged, kicking and screaming, into the computer age, but… It started at a public park.  I was in Albuquerque visiting my daughter and her […]

Originally Published: July 10, 2025 at 1:39 AM PDT

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Beth Kindig, lead technology analyst at the I/O Fund, has an impressive track record where chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) is concerned. In 2021, she correctly predicted the company would surpass Apple‘s market value within five years. Nvidia checked that box in three years.

Earlier this year, Kindig correctly called it a buying opportunity when Nvidia stock crashed after Chinese startup DeepSeek introduced low-cost large language models. The stock price has increased 28% since she made that recommendation, and it currently trades at a record high.

However, Kindig’s boldest prediction is that Nvidia will be a $10 trillion company by 2030. That implies 156% upside from its present market value of $3.9 trillion, which equates to annual returns of nearly 19% through the end of the decade for shareholders.

Nvidia dominates the markets for data center GPUs and AI networking gear

Nvidia is best known for developing graphics processing units (GPUs), chips commonly used to accelerate time-consuming data center workloads like training machine learning models and running artificial intelligence (AI) applications. Nvidia dominates the space with more than 90% market share, according to Beth Kindig.

Mike Gualtieri at Forrester Research in a recent report commented, “Nvidia sets the pace for AI infrastructure worldwide. Without Nvidia’s GPUs, modern AI wouldn’t be possible.”

Importantly, the company also complements its GPUs with CPUs and interconnects, as well as Ethernet and InfiniBand networking platforms. In fact, Nvidia is the market leader in generative AI networking and it recently added Alphabet‘s Google and Meta Platforms to its growing list of customers.

Going forward, Grand View Research estimates the data center GPU market will expand at 36% annually through 2033. And Morningstar expects generative AI networking market will grow at 34% annually through 2028. That gives Nvidia good shot at annual revenue growth exceeding 30% for many years to come.

Nvidia is likely to maintain its leadership as the physical AI revolution unfolds

ChatGPT popularized generative AI, which uses large language models to turn prompts into novel media like text, images, and video. That technology created tremendous demand for Nvidia AI infrastructure, and the company is well positioned to maintain its leadership as the physical AI boom unfolds.

Physical AI lets autonomous machines understand and navigate the real world, and Nvidia addresses the technology at three layers of the computing stack: Its data center GPUs and networking platforms train AI models, its Omniverse simulation engine generates synthetic training data and tests AI models, and its embedded processors offer on-board computing power to autonomous robots and self-driving cars.

Beyond that, Nvidia’s CUDA platform includes code libraries, application frameworks, and pretrained models that accelerate the development of robotics and automotive software. That vertical integration makes Nvidia the go-to option for engineers and developers as it eliminates the complexity of integrating products from multiple vendors, which ultimately lowers the total cost of ownership.

Indeed, Beth Kindig says Nvidia has a “near-monopoly in building supercomputers” because of the “impenetrable moat” created by its CUDA software platform. She also cites vertical integration — the fact that the company provides data center components well beyond GPUs — as a major reason Nvidia can achieve a market value of $10 trillion no later than 2030.

Nvidia stock trades at a reasonable valuation compared to forward earnings estimates

Nvidia reported strong first-quarter financial results that exceeded expectations on the top and bottom lines. Revenue rose 69% to $44 billion because of robust demand for AI infrastructure, and non-GAAP net income rose 33% to $0.81 per diluted share. Earnings would have increased more quickly had it not been for new chip export restrictions related to China.

Wall Street estimates Nvidia’s adjusted earnings will increase at 41% annually through the fiscal year ending in January 2027. That makes the current valuation of 50 times adjusted earnings look reasonable, especially because the company topped the consensus earnings estimate by an average of 5% in the last six quarters. Long-term investors should feel comfortable owning the stock at its current price.