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Salesforce is getting ready to hang the stockings—and Santa may have a new helper: artificial intelligence.

Salesforce projects that global online sales between November 1 and December 31 will hit $1.25 trillion, up 4 percent year on year. The U.S. is expected to have the largest contribution to that of any country; Salesforce projects that U.S. consumers will account for $288 billion of total online spending during the holiday season, up 2.1 percent from 2024. 

The firm said AI will be one of this year’s most impactful trends for consumers; Salesforce has coined it the year of “discovery,” because it contends the way consumers are finding and searching for products is changing rapidly. 

Still, consumers—at least in the U.S.—are spending carefully amidst economic uncertainty and upheaval from President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda. 

AI continues to grab consumer attention

Salesforce has lofty expectations for AI’s impact this holiday season; Schwartz said the firm projects AI will drive $263 billion in online sales globally, and $51 billion of U.S. online sales for holiday. 

In May, its data showed that 5 percent of U.S. consumers started their journey with generative AI-powered shopping assistants, like ChatGPT or Perplexity. In recent months, that figure has grown.

“In May, we asked consumers, ‘Where do you start your journey when you are looking to buy a new product; in the market, where do you go first?’…and about 5 percent of U.S. consumers said that they start in an AI chat system,” Schwartz said. “Flash forward to the end of August, that number went up to 7 percent.” 

There is somewhat of a generational split behind that figure; 13 percent of Gen Zers begin their shopping journey with generative AI, and 11 percent of millennials said the same. Among Gen Xers and Baby Boomers, generative AI is less popular, with 8 percent and 3 percent of respondents, respectively, saying they started there. 

Still, one-fifth of all U.S. consumers have used AI search as a touchpoint in their shopping journey within the past six months. Schwartz said Salesforce also uncovered an interesting trend about in-store AI engagement. 

“They may not be starting there, but they’re using it as a tool. What is really compelling, though, to us, is that these tools are not just something that are relegated to the online buying journey, but they’re crossing into the physical journey, as well.” 

Salesforce’s data shows that nearly six in 10 U.S. consumers use AI search tools while they are actively browsing in a store. And trust in AI tools continues to increase; 87 percent of U.S. shoppers said they trust recommendations AI assistants share with them. The latter figure is up 43 percentage points since May, when just 44 percent of consumers placed trust in AI recommendations. 

Schwartz said shoppers entering a company’s site at the suggestion of an AI assistant are more likely to purchase and engage with the site than their counterparts.

“These shoppers are highly, highly qualified, and they’re very motivated to purchase when they hit the brand or retail website, because…they have a high degree of trust in the recommendations,” she said. 

Salesforce’s data backs that up; Schwartz said users coming to a site through an AI recommendation convert at a 700 percent higher rate than social media traffic and a 200 percent higher rate than all other traffic sources, including traditional search. Apparel and accessories is the most popular category for AI-based consumer search, followed by footwear. 

Tariff talk 

U.S. consumers don’t seem to retain the same zeal they do for AI when it comes to economic outlook. 

29 percent of U.S. consumers said they’re holding off on discretionary spending, and 28 percent said they’re working to stock up before prices increase due to tariffs. Both those figures fall above the global averages of 25 percent and 24 percent, respectively. Schwartz said 

Salesforce’s data shows that 36 percent of U.S. consumers feel pessimistic about the economy. Women and older shoppers were more likely to feel doom and gloom, Schwartz said. Part of consumers’ continued hesitation about the economy comes from inflation. 

Schwartz said discounts could be part of retailers’ answer to continued consumer concern. In the U.S., the company expects the average holiday discount rate to be 22 percent and the average Cyber Week discount rate to fall at 29 percent, both up one percentage point from last year. While that may not be a significant increase, it bucks the trend of retailers and brands’ frenzy over tariffs impacting their pricing models. 

Schwartz said higher base prices and frontloaded inventory likely play a part in those higher discount rates. But she also noted that retailers need to offer more stable discounting than they did last year during Cyber Week. 

“There’s going to be some more intentionality around [discounting]. The discount will be better, but I don’t think it’s going to be like, 60 percent off sidewide type of discount—it’s going to be more targeted types of promotions,” Schwartz said. 

In the U.S., Salesforce expects the top in-store discount days to be Black Friday, December 22, December 23 and Christmas Eve. For online discounts, the firm said Cyber Monday and the weekend leading up to it would be most fruitful. 

Over Cyber Weekend, three-quarters of U.S. consumers expect to shop in stores; on Cyber Monday, 55 percent of U.S. consumers expect to shop online. 

Those discounts might be necessary to keep consumers spending. 

In Q2, global e-commerce sales increased by 4 percent, in large part attributable to a European rebound after interest rates were slashed. Still, U.S. spending remained flat. Salesforce projects that, on top of higher discounting and increased use of technology, if the Federal Reserve slashes interest rates, as expected, it could positively influence consumer sentiment and holiday demand. 

“If [a cut] does happen, and if there’s another one by the end of the year, that could have a really strong impact on driving up demand ahead of the holiday season,” Schwartz said. 

Like Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is also tossing and turning at night. But unlike Hassabis, who attributes his worries to the possibility of AGI arriving before society is ready, Altman revealed he hasn’t had “a good night of sleep” since ChatGPT launched.

While speaking to former Fox News host Tucker Carlson in a recent interview, OpenAI’s CEO indicated (via CNBC): “Look, I don’t sleep that well at night. There’s a lot of stuff that I feel a lot of weight on, but probably nothing more than the fact that every day, hundreds of millions of people talk to our model.”