The waterways in Texas Hill Country have carved paths over the centuries through the granite and limestone, shaping the rocky peaks and valleys that make the region so breathtaking.
When too much rain falls for the ground to absorb, it runs downhill, pulled by gravity into streams, creeks and rivers. The rain fills the waterways beyond their banks, and the excess overflows in predictable patterns that follow the terrain.
Governments and waterway managers know what will flood first and who will be threatened when a truly historic rain event takes place.
Several of the camps along the Guadalupe River and its tributaries sustained damage early July 4. Many of them are in areas known to flood.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency maintains a database of flood zones throughout the country. It maps the regulatory floodways — the places that will flood first and are most dangerous — and the areas that will flood in extreme events.
The Guadalupe River flood was a 1-in-100-year event, meaning it has about a 1% chance of happening in any given year. Extreme flooding is happening more frequently as the world warms and the atmosphere is able to hold more moisture.
Texas has already seen multiple dangerous flooding events this year, and the United States overall saw a record number of flash flood emergencies last year.
More than an entire summer’s worth of rain fell in some spots in central Texas in just a few hours early on the Fourth of July, quickly overwhelming dry soils and creating significant flash flooding. Central Texas is currently home to some of the worst drought in the United States and bone-dry soils flood very quickly.
Camp Mystic is a nondenominational Christian summer camp for girls in western Kerr County. The camp is located at a dangerous confluence of the South Fork Guadalupe River and Cypress Creek, where flood waters converged.
Camp Mystic has two sites, both of which overlap with either the floodway or areas the federal government has determined have a 1% or 0.2% annual chance of flooding.
Officials have not shared how many of the Camp Mystic girls perished in the floods. At least 10 girls and one counselor remain missing as of Sunday evening.
Ten minutes north on the South Fork is Camp La Junta, a boys camp. Some of Camp La Junta’s property also coincides with areas known to flood, though several of its buildings are located in the lower-risk zone, or outside the flood zones entirely.
Wyndham Etheridge, a 14-year-old at Camp La Junta in Hunt, Texas, told CNN’s Fredricka Whitfield he woke up to people from all over the camp coming to “seek refuge” at his cabin. They stayed there, fearing the strong floodwaters could sweep them away.
As the water rose, they climbed into the loft of their cabin to escape, but it wasn’t safe, Etheridge said. “So at some point we just decided … we could go to bed for a little bit, but then we woke up again to more water,” he said.
Etheridge’s parents were among the lucky who received word that their child was safe and could be picked up. “All those boys were pretty traumatized,” said Amy Etheridge, Wyndham’s mother.
Everyone at Camp La Junta has been safe and accounted for, the camp announced Friday.
