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Russia’s economy is down but not out

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Daniel Thomas

Business reporter

Getty Images Russian tanks in Red Square, Moscow, last monthGetty Images

Russia has significantly ramped up its military production to support the war in Ukraine

Since its illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has become the most sanctioned nation on Earth, and yet its economy has been remarkably resilient.

In 2024, if Russian official figures are to believed, its economy outgrew those of all the G7 nations – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US.

The Russian economy expanded by 4.3% last year, compared with 1.1% in the UK, and 2.8% in the US.

This growth in Russia was led by the Kremlin’s record military spending.

The country’s oil exports, by volume, have also remained relatively stable, as supplies once destined for Europe have been diverted to China and India.

And a “shadow fleet” of tankers, whose ownership and movements could be obscured, has helped Moscow circumvent sanctions elsewhere.

Meanwhile, the Russian rouble has recovered to become the best-performing world currency this year, with gains of more than 40%, according to Bank of America.

Yet, as we move towards 2026, the mood music is changing.

Inside the country inflation has been persistently high, interest rates have soared to 20%, and companies can’t find the workers they need. And globally, oil prices had fallen back this year before the current conflict between Israel and Iran caused a spike.

Russia’s economy minister warned on Thursday that the country was “on the verge” of recession after a period of “overheating”.

And some Russia watchers have even suggested the economy could be headed for collapse.

But how likely is that really? And how does it affect the course of the war?

Yevgeny Nadorshin, an economist based in Moscow, tells BBC News: “Overall, it will be a pretty uncomfortable situation until late 2026, and definitely there will be defaults and bankruptcies.”

But he predicts the downturn will be “mild” and calls any suggestion of a meltdown a “total lie”.

“Without any single doubt, the Russian economy has experienced a number of recessions deeper than this.”

Mr Nadorshin points out that Russia’s unemployment rate is currently at a record low of 2.3%, and will probably peak at just 3.5% next year. By contrast, the UK’s unemployment rate was 4.6% in April.

Getty Images Russian President Putin visiting the country's main tank factory in the UralsGetty Images

Russia’s military spending, such as on new tanks, is reliant upon its overseas oil sales

Still, he and others see reasons for concern, and that’s because Russia appears to have entered a period of stagnation.

Its inflation rate was 9.9% in the year to April, partly due to Western sanctions pushing up the price of imports, but also because of worker shortages which have driven up wages.

The country lacked around 2.6 million workers at the end of 2024, according to Russia’s Higher School of Economics, largely due to men going to war or fleeing abroad to avoid it.

The central bank put interest rates up to record levels this year to try and tame the rising prices – but it’s making it more costly for companies to raise the capital they need to invest.

Meanwhile, Russia’s oil and gas revenues have fallen due to sanctions and weaker pricing, and were down by 35% year-on-year in May, according to official figures.

It has contributed to a widening budget shortfall that has left the country with less to spend on infrastructure and public services.

“They have this large pot of expenditure for the military that can’t be touched,” says András Tóth-Czifra, a political analyst and Russia watcher. “So it means money is starting to be reallocated from vital investment projects in road, rail and utilities.

“The quality of provision is really suffering.”

Russia may have coped better than expected with Western sanctions, but they continue to drag on the economy, he adds.

Russian companies are struggling to import the technology they need, and it has badly damaged the car industry. The EU has also banned imports of Russian coal and diversified away from its gas with a view to phasing out imports by 2027.

“None of this is likely to seriously impede Russia’s ability to wage war in the short-term,” says Mr Tóth-Czifra. “But it could affect the economy’s ability to grow or diversify in years to come.”

So far the Kremlin has brushed off the concerns. In early June, spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the “macroeconomic stability” and “underlying strength” of the Russian economy were plain to see.

In April, meanwhile, he said the economy was “developing quite successfully” thanks to government policies.

Getty Images Rouble notesGetty Images

Russia’s currency, the rouble, has been surprisingly resilient

It is hard to say what will happen next.

If Ukraine and Russia reach a peace deal this year, which is not unfeasible, it would relieve some of the pressure on Moscow. US President Donald Trump has stated his desire to normalise relations and even forge new economic partnerships.

But Europe may well “stay the course” and maintain its own sanctions in the event of peace, says Dr Katja Yafimava from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

“Even if it doesn’t, it’s next to impossible to see a sort of big return to Europe buying Russian oil and gas as was the case before 2022, although a modest return of gas imports is possible,” she adds.

“Still, this would paint a difficult economic picture for Moscow. While Russia has mostly re-orientated its oil exports away from Europe, it is more difficult to do so for gas.”

Whatever happens, it looks like the war will have long-term costs for Russia – and the Kremlin is running out of ways to offset them.



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Capgemini acquires India-based WNS for $3.3 billion to boost AI business services – Firstpost

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Capgemini expects the deal to be closed by the end of 2025 and be immediately accretive to its revenue and operating margin

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France’s Capgemini has agreed to buy technology outsourcing firm WNS for $3.3 billion in cash to expand the range of AI tools it offers for companies, the IT services group said on Monday.

The deal equips Capgemini to create a consulting business service focused on helping companies improve their processes and cost efficiency with the use of artificial intelligence, namely generative AI and agentic AI, which it expects to attract significant investments.

The purchase price translating to $76.50 per WNS share represents a 17% premium compared to their last closing price on July 3 and does not include WNS’s financial debt, Capgemini said.

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Its interest in India-based WNS, whose services include business process outsourcing and data analytics, was first reported by Reuters in April.

“WNS brings … its high growth, margin accretive and resilient Digital Business Process Services … while further increasing our exposure to the US market,” Capgemini CEO Aiman Ezzat said in a press statement.

WNS’s customers include large organizations such as Coca-Cola, T-Mobile and United Airlines.

On a conference call with media and analysts, Ezzat said the acquisition would immediately create cross-selling opportunities between the two companies, mainly in the U.S. and Britain.

Capgemini expects the deal to be closed by the end of 2025 and be immediately accretive to its revenue and operating margin.

However, its shares fell around 5% following the news, the biggest losers on Europe’s benchmark STOXX 600 index as of 1024 GMT, with Morgan Stanley analysts saying the deal would limit its balance sheet flexibility while not having a major impact on financials.

Some investors are also concerned that Gen AI could impact the typically staff-intensive business process outsourcing (BPO) market, which could bite into Capgemini’s revenues and expose it to new competition, the analysts said in a research note.

“We expect investors to be able to see the opportunity that could come from disrupting BPO with Gen AI but think some evidence will be needed to convince the market WNS is the right vehicle,” they added.

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Cambridge Judge Business School Executive Education launches the AI Leadership Programme in collaboration with Emeritus

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The programme explores future-focused AI strategies and frameworks to foster innovation, accelerate organisational growth and build resilience.

CAMBRIDGE, England, July 7, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Cambridge Judge Business School Executive Education announces the launch of its four-month Cambridge AI Leadership Programme. This programme equips leaders with both strategic insights and practical knowledge to harness AI for business transformation. Launched in collaboration with Emeritus, a global leader in making high-quality education accessible and affordable, enrolment is now open for a September 2025 start.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming industries, and organisations are eager to understand and leverage its full potential to enhance efficiency, drive innovation and stay competitive. According to Forbes, 68% of employers consider AI to be crucial for future success. However, many AI projects fail due to a lack of strategic leadership and integration. The Cambridge AI Leadership Programme helps participants navigate the complexities of AI adoption, identify scalable opportunities and build a strategic roadmap for successful implementation.

Through a blend of in-person and online learning modules, participants will develop an understanding of AI concepts, applications and best practices to enhance decision-making skills as well as examine digital transformation and ethical AI governance. They will engage directly with world-renowned Cambridge faculty, industry experts and global peers while immersing themselves in the rich Cambridge ecosystem. By the end of the programme, participants will be prepared to implement AI strategies that deliver operational excellence and long-term organisational success.

“AI is a transformative force reshaping business strategy, decision-making and leadership. Senior executives must not only understand AI but also use it to drive business goals, efficiency and new revenue opportunities,” says Professor David Stillwell, Co-Academic Programme Director. “The Cambridge AI Leadership Programme offers a strategic road map, equipping leaders with the skills and mindset to integrate AI into their organisations and lead in an AI-driven world.”

“The Cambridge AI Leadership Programme empowers decision-makers to harness AI in ways that align with their organisation’s goals and prepare for the future,” says Vesselin Popov, Co-Academic Programme Director. “Through a comprehensive learning experience, participants gain strategic insights and practical knowledge to drive transformation, strengthen decision-making and navigate technological shifts with confidence.”

The programme is designed for senior leaders looking to lead transformation, unlock new revenue opportunities and integrate AI technologies into business operations effectively. It bridges the critical gap between technology and business strategy, preparing leaders to achieve AI-driven business goals.

“We are delighted to collaborate with Cambridge Judge Business School Executive Education to help senior leaders deepen their understanding of AI’s strategic applications and build foresight to balance innovation while managing risk,” says Mike Malefakis, President of University Partnerships at Emeritus. “Through blended learning, the Cambridge AI Leadership Programme enables participants to leverage AI tools and strategies for business optimisation and growth.”

The Cambridge AI Leadership Programme starts on 22 September 2025. For more information and to apply, please visit the programme website.

About Cambridge Judge Business School

Cambridge Judge Business School leverages the power of academia for real-world impact to transform individuals, organisations and society. Since 1990, Cambridge Judge has forged a reputation as a centre of rigorous thinking and high-impact transformative education, situated within one of the world’s most prestigious research universities and in the heart of the Cambridge Cluster, the most successful technology entrepreneurship cluster in Europe. In the Research Excellence Framework (REF) 2021, Cambridge Judge placed first in the Times Higher Education rankings for Business and Management Studies in the United Kingdom. Ninety-four per cent of Cambridge’s overall REF submissions were rated as “world leading” or “internationally excellent”, demonstrating the major global impact that Cambridge Judge researchers are making on society. Cambridge Judge pursues innovation through interdisciplinary insight, entrepreneurial spirit and collaboration. Cutting-edge research is rooted in real-world challenges, and students and clients are encouraged to ask excellent questions to create real-world change. Undergraduate, graduate and executive programmes attract innovators, creative thinkers, thoughtful and collaborative problem-solvers as well as current and future leaders, drawn from a huge diversity of backgrounds and countries.

About Cambridge Judge Business School Executive Education

Cambridge Judge Business School Executive Education offers a wide range of open-enrolment and customised programmes that will test, challenge, encourage and inspire you. We will help you embrace the knowledge and skills you need – to grow in confidence and to evolve and adapt. Get ready to lead purposefully, manage effectively and innovate in an increasingly complex future.

About Emeritus

Emeritus is committed to teaching the skills of the future by making high-quality education accessible and affordable to individuals, organisations and governments worldwide. It does so by collaborating with more than 80 top-tier universities across the United States, Europe, Latin America, Southeast Asia, India and China. Emeritus’s short courses, degree programmes, professional certificates and senior executive programmes help individuals learn new skills and transform their lives, companies and organisations. Its unique model of state-of-the-art technology, curriculum innovation and hands-on instruction from senior faculty, mentors and coaches has educated more than 350,000 individuals across more than 80 countries. For more information, please visit https://emeritus.org.

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Capgemini falls as WNS deal raises questions over AI’s business impact — TradingView News

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** Shares in French IT services firm Capgemini CAP fall more than 5% to their lowest price since late April, after it agreed to buy WNS WNS for $3.3 billion of cash

** Analysts from Morgan Stanley say investors are concerned over the impact of Gen AI on the business process outsourcing (BPO) market that Capgemini wants to develop into

** “The bear case is that new technology would shift BPO from a people intensive business to one which is much more highly automated and managed by software and not people” – MS

** This could mean reduction of BPO revenues and exposure of incumbent vendors to competition from new entrants, MS adds

** “We expect investors to be able to see the opportunity that could come from disrupting BPO with Gen AI but think some evidence will be needed to convince the market WNS is the right vehicle,” MS says

** The analysts add WNS is not large enough to be transformational to Capgemini’s financials, while the deal is using up its balance sheet firepower for a couple of years

** Capgemini’s shares are at the bottom of Europe’s benchmark STOXX 600 index SXXP



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