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What have tariffs really done to the US economy?

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Getty Images Woman wearing a black T-shirt and blue shorts shopping in the fresh fruit and vegetable section of a US supermarketGetty Images

Soon after Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, he began raising tariffs, brushing off warnings from economists and businesses about the risks of economic damage.

He started with Mexico, Canada and China, then targeted steel, aluminium and cars, and finally in April, on what he called “Liberation Day”, unleashed a blitz of new taxes on goods from countries around the world.

The plans hit trade and roiled financial markets. But as worries mounted, Trump quickly suspended his most aggressive plans to allow for 90 days of talks.

As that 9 July deadline approaches and the president crafts his approach, he will have one eye on the US economy.

So what has the impact really been?

The stock market has rebounded

Trump’s plans included tariffs of 20% on goods from the European Union, punishing tariffs on items from China of 145%, and a 46% levy on imports from Vietnam, though on Wednesday he announced a deal that will see the US charge tariffs of 20% on Vietnam.

The US stock market suffered the most immediate hit, starting to slide in February and finally tanking in April after Trump unveiled the full scope of his plans, on so-called “Liberation Day”.

The S&P 500, which tracks 500 of the biggest companies in the US, dropped about 12% over the course of a week.

But shares bounced back after Trump rolled back his plans, abandoning steep tariffs in favour of a more easily swallowed 10% rate instead.

Now, the S&P 500 index is up about 6% for the year. In the UK and Europe, shares have also rebounded.

A line chart showing the performance of the S&P 500 index over the period of US President Donald Trump's imposition of global trade tariffs. At the start of January 2025, the index was 5,882, and rose gradually to a peak of 6,144 on 19 February. It then fell to 5,522 by 13 March 2025 – a period that coincided with the imposition of tariffs on several countries, and retaliatory tariffs on US goods. From there, the index rose slightly before dropping sharply to a low of 4,983 on 8 April, shortly after Trump’s announcement of a broad range of global tariffs. It rebounded to 5,457 the next day, after the president paused many of the tariffs, and broadly has been on an upward path since, reaching 6,275 by 3 July.

But shares of tariff-vulnerable firms, such as retailers and car companies are still hurting – and there is more risk ahead, as the talks deadline approaches.

The White House has left its options open, saying both that the deadline is “not critical” and that the president may simply present other countries “with a deal” on that date.

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said the rebound suggested “a lot of complacency” among investors, who risk being spooked again should Trump revive higher tariffs than they expect.

Trade is at a crossroads

NurPhoto/Getty Images A cargo ship fully loaded with foreign trade containers leaves the port of Qingdao in Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China, on June 23, 2025NurPhoto/Getty Images

Trump’s tariffs precipitated a rush of goods to the US in the early part of the year, followed by a sharp drop in April and May.

But zoom out a bit, and US goods imports in the first five months of the year were up 17% compared with the same period last year.

What happens in the months ahead will depend on whether Trump extends his pause – or revives his more aggressive plans, said Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates, which tracks port traffic for the National Retail Federation.

“At this point it’s anybody’s guess,” Mr Hackett said, noting that for now the situation was “in a holding pattern”.

“If the tariff freeze disappears and the high tariffs are reimposed then almost certainly we’re going to have a short recession,” he added.

Impact on prices is unclear

Bloomberg/Getty A shopper looks at magnets at a gift store in the Chinatown neighborhood of San Francisco, California, US, on Wednesday, June 25, 2025.Bloomberg/Getty

In the US, imported goods are estimated to account for only about 11% of consumer spending.

Trump and his allies have argued that fears that tariffs – which, on average, are now roughly six times higher than they were at the start of the year – will drive up the cost of living for Americans are overblown.

They have pointed in part to recent inflation data, which showed consumer prices stepping up just 0.1% from April to May.

But certain items, such as toys, saw far bigger jumps and many goods facing higher duties have not yet made it to shelves.

Firms, especially those cushioned by strong profits, could opt to pass the increases on gradually, rather than alienate customers with an abrupt jump.

Despite pressure from the president to “eat the tariffs”, economists still widely expect customers to pay for them eventually.

“If you’re not digging more into the data you would think, ‘nothing to see here’ from an inflation standpoint,” says Ms Sonders. “But it’s premature at this point to hang the victory banner.”

Consumer spending is slowing

Economic sentiment in the US started falling earlier this year, as Trump began to set out his tariff plans.

But political views play a big role in shaping opinions on the economy, so whether the worries would actually lead households to clamp down on spending over the long term remained a matter of debate.

We are now starting to see signs of pullback: retail sales dropped 0.9% from April to May, the second month in a row of decline. It was the first back-to-back fall since the end of 2023.

Overall consumer spending grew at the slowest rate since 2020 in the first three months of the year, and slipped unexpectedly in May, the most recent month for which data is available.

But while growth is still expected to slow significantly compared with last year, most analysts say the economy should be able to escape a recession – so long as the job market continues to hold up.

Though layoff notices have been pacing higher, for now, unemployment remains low, at 4.2%. Job creation last month continued at a pace similar to the average over the last 12 months.

“We’re sort of in this stall mode right now in the economy, a kind of wait-and-see mode, that is driven by pretty grave uncertainty and the instability in policy,” Ms Sonders said, noting that many firms were responding with a self-imposed “time-out” on hiring and investment.

The economy is unlikely to escape unscathed, she warned.

“It’s hard to lay out a scenario of a pickup in growth from here,” she said. “The question is more, will it just be a softening of the economy or a bigger slide.”



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Company Turns To AI For Cost Cutting, Ends Up Paying US Woman Rs 1.7 Lakh To Fix Errors

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“Maybe I’m being naive, but I think if you are very good, you won’t have trouble,” she expressed her views about concerns around AI. According to Skidd, AI can be an excellent tool when used correctly. Like her, there are many writers who are earning by fixing AI-generated content.

A digital marketing agency co-owner, Sophie Warner, shared a similar experience, noting how her clients were using ChatGPT for their issues first.

“Earlier, clients would message us if they were having issues with their site or wanted to introduce new functionality,” Warner said. “Now they are going to ChatGPT first.”

She said clients using ChatGPT for website code had reported issues. These include sites crashing down or leaving them vulnerable to hackers. She revealed that such a move cost one of her clients £360 (Rs 42,000) and three days of service disruption, the BBC report added.  

Similar instances have occurred in the past where businesses trying to cut costs with AI have ended up paying more. In June, a Swedish fintech company, Klarna, made headlines for a similar incident. The company announced that it was organising a large-scale recruitment drive to hire staff again, two years after firing more than 700 employees to replace them with AI. 



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AI video becomes more convincing, rattling creative industry

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[NEW YORK] Gone are the days of six-fingered hands or distorted faces – artificial intelligence (AI)-generated video is becoming increasingly convincing, attracting Hollywood, artists, and advertisers, while shaking the foundations of the creative industry.

To measure the progress of AI video, you need only look at Will Smith eating spaghetti.

Since 2023, this unlikely sequence – entirely fabricated – has become a technological benchmark for the industry.

Two years ago, the actor appeared blurry, his eyes too far apart, his forehead exaggeratedly protruding, his movements jerky, and the spaghetti did not even reach his mouth.

The version published a few weeks ago by a user of Google’s Veo 3 platform showed no apparent flaws whatsoever.

“Every week, sometimes every day, a different one comes out that’s even more stunning than the next,” said Elizabeth Strickler, a professor at Georgia State University.

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Between Luma Labs’ Dream Machine, launched in June 2024, OpenAI’s Sora in December, Runway AI’s Gen-4 in March 2025, and Veo 3 in May, the sector has crossed several milestones in just a few months.

Runway has signed deals with Lionsgate studio and AMC Networks television group.

Lionsgate vice-president Michael Burns told New York Magazine about the possibility of using AI to generate animated, family-friendly versions from films such as the John Wick or Hunger Games franchises, rather than creating entirely new projects.

“Some use it for storyboarding or previsualization” – steps that come before filming – “others for visual effects or inserts”, said Jamie Umpherson, Runway’s creative director.

Burns gave the example of a script for which Lionsgate has to decide whether to shoot a scene or not.

To help make that decision, they can now create a 10-second clip “with 10,000 soldiers in a snowstorm”.

That kind of pre-visualisation would have cost millions before.

In October, the first AI feature film was released, Where the Robots Grow, an animated film without anything resembling live action footage.

For Alejandro Matamala Ortiz, Runway’s co-founder, an AI-generated feature film is not the end goal, but a way of demonstrating to a production team that “this is possible”.

Resistance everywhere

Still, some see an opportunity.

In March, startup Staircase Studio made waves by announcing plans to produce seven to eight films per year using AI for less than US$500,000 each, while ensuring it would rely on unionised professionals wherever possible.

“The market is there,” said Andrew White, co-founder of small production house Indie Studios.

People “don’t want to talk about how it’s made”, White pointed out. “That’s inside baseball. People want to enjoy the movie because of the movie.”

But White himself refuses to adopt the technology, considering that using AI would compromise his creative process.

Jamie Umpherson argues that AI allows creators to stick closer to their artistic vision than ever before, since it enables unlimited revisions, unlike the traditional system constrained by costs.

“I see resistance everywhere” to this movement, observed Georgia State’s Strickler.

This is particularly true among her students, who are concerned about AI’s massive energy and water consumption as well as the use of original works to train models, not to mention the social impact.

But refusing to accept the shift is “kind of like having a business without having the internet”, she said. “You can try for a little while.”

In 2023, the American actors’ union SAG-AFTRA secured concessions on the use of their image through AI.

Strickler sees AI diminishing Hollywood’s role as the arbiter of creation and taste, instead allowing more artists and creators to reach a significant audience.

Runway’s founders, who are as much trained artists as they are computer scientists, have gained an edge over their AI video rivals in film, television, and advertising.

But they are already looking further ahead, considering expansion into augmented reality and virtual reality, for example, creating a metaverse where films could be shot.

“The most exciting applications aren’t necessarily the ones that we have in mind,” said Umpherson. “The ultimate goal is to see what artists do with technology.” AFP



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Samsung warns of big profit miss from US restrictions on advanced AI chip exports

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Semiconductor and smartphone giant Samsung Electronic Co. Ltd. said on Tuesday morning in South Korea that it’s anticipating its second-quarter profit to plunge 56% from a year earlier, blaming it on sluggish sales in its chip business and the impacts of U.S. trade restrictions.

The forecast comes in much lower than what analysts had expected. Samsung said in a preliminary earnings statement that it’s expecting a second-quarter operating profit of 4.59 trillion won ($3.4 billion), down sharply from the 10.44 trillion won profit it posted in the year-ago period. Analysts had been targeting a profit of 6.2 trillion won, Reuters reported.

On a sequential basis, Samsung’s profit is expected to drop by around 31%, from 6.69 trillion won. Revenue for the period is expected to come to 74 trillion won, more or less flat from a year earlier.

In a separate press release issued to South Korean media, Samsung blamed the unexpected decline in profit on inventory replacements and the negative impact of the United States’ expanded sanctions on the export of advanced artificial intelligence processors to China.

“The memory business saw a decline in performance due to one-off costs, such as provisions for inventory asset valuation,” the company said. “However, improved HBM products are currently being evaluated and shipped to customers.”

Samsung was referring to its High-Bandwidth Memory chips, which are a critical component of AI processors. The company has struggled to match the progress of its rival memory chipmaker SK Hynix Inc., which currently provides the vast majority of HBM chips to Nvidia Corp. for use in that company’s graphics processing units.

However, Samsung said it expects to see a sharp increase in HBM chip sales to Nvidia in the upcoming quarter, despite recent reports that its products have not yet passed the AI chip leader’s quality tests. It also said its non-memory chipmaking foundry is expected to reduce its losses in the third quarter due to improved utilization rates and a recovery in global chip demand.

Analysts said Samsung’s profits were also hit by a decline in NAND flash prices and a stronger Korean won, and its stock was down 1% in early morning trading in Korea.

Holger Mueller of Constellation Research Inc. told SiliconANGLE it’s notable that Samsung is still growing its chip business, despite not being able to grow its profit. “The most critical challenge is for Samsung to be able to deliver its HBM chips, and if it can do this it will likely show stellar results like its competitors, given the insane hunger for AI chips,” the analyst said.

According to Mueller, investors will be happy to hear that Samsung believes it will soon be able to deliver a significant number of HBM chips to Nvidia, which is the most important customer. If it does do this, it could well see growth of the kind that it hasn’t enjoyed in years.

“But another challenge for Samsung is its smartphone business, which is also struggling right now,” Mueller added. “The flywheel will only come back and deliver as it used to once both of these businesses have strong offerings. Samsung will also need to demonstrate strong execution in production and on the go-to-market side.”

Samsung has not yet disclosed detailed earnings regarding the performance of its individual business units, but analysts estimate that its semiconductor business will deliver an operating profit of around 1 trillion won, based on the company’s preliminary forecast.

The company is also unlikely to see much benefit from the launch of its new flagship smartphone, the AI-powered Galaxy S25, in January. Meanwhile, its television and home appliance businesses are also expected to see a drop in profitability, due partly to the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports.

Although the report was disappointing for investors, Hyundai Motor Securities Co. analyst Roh Geun-chang said the company’s profit is likely to rebound in the third quarter, driven by an expected increase in memory chip prices. “Samsung’s operating profit appears to have bottomed out in the second quarter and is expected to show gradual improvement,” the analyst told Yonhap.

Image: SiliconANGLE/Dreamina

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