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Stock market today: Dow futures up as Wall Street eyes the one thing that could derail Fed rate cut

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Stock futures gained momentum on Sunday evening as investors brace for fresh inflation data and political turmoil overseas that could ripple through the bond market.

That comes as Friday’s dismal jobs report ratcheted up recession fears while also locking in odds for a rate cut later this month from the Federal Reserve.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 94 points, or 0.21%. S&P 500 futures were up 0.23%, and Nasdaq futures added 0.38%.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was flat at 4.091%. The U.S. dollar was up 0.05% against the euro and up 0.65% against the yen after Japan’s prime minister announced he will step down after less than a year in office.

More political turmoil in the world fourth-largest economy could rattle the bond market as investors gauge whether the next leader will lean toward fiscal discipline or more profligacy.

Similarly, France’s government faces a confidence vote on Monday after bond vigilantes sent French yields higher on expectations for more gridlock and no progress on reining in deficits.

U.S. oil prices rose 0.32% to $62.07 per barrel, and Brent crude added 0.40% to $65.76. That’s despite key OPEC+ members agreeing on another production hike meant to grab more market share.

Gold fell 0.64% to $3,630 per ounce, but still hovering near record highs after recession fears sent safe-haven assets higher last week.

More recession signals were lurking in the latest jobs data. On Sunday, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi point out that most U.S. industries have been shedding jobs rather than adding them for several months, warning that “this only happens when the economy is in recession.”

Such labor market weakness basically guaranteed a Fed rate cut. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, Wall Street is certain that some kind of cut is coming when the central bank announces its policy decision on Sept. 17. The only question is whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Right now, a 92% probability of a quarter-point cut is priced in.

Perhaps the only thing that could put a rate cut in doubt is a surprise spike in inflation. The effect of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on inflation has been more muted that anticipated, but investors will get crucial updates.

On Wednesday, the producer price index for August will come out, and economists expect a 0.3% month increase, cooling from the 0.9% surge in July.

On Thursday, the consumer price index is due, and Wall Street sees a 0.3% gain, accelerating from the 0.2% pace a month earlier. On an annual basis, the CPI is also seen heating up, with August expected to see a yearly pace of 2.9%, up from 2.7% in July.

But inflation in core consumer prices should remain steady at a monthly rate of 0.3% and an annual rate of 3.1%. Still, both the headline CPI and core CPI would continue to be above the Fed’s 2% target.

On Tuesday, the Labor Department will publish preliminary benchmark revisions to its establishment survey data for 2025. With revisions earlier this year mostly trimming prior readings, more downward revisions could be due.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook is fighting Trump’s attempt to fire her, and a judge hearing the case could issue a ruling in the coming week, clarifying whether she will be able to participate in the FOMC meeting.

In addition, the Senate could vote on Trump’s nomination of White House economic adviser Stephen Miran to the Fed’s board of governors, allowing him to take part in the meeting.

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Trump administration requests emergency ruling to remove Cook from Fed board

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration has asked an appeals court to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve’s board of governors by Monday, before the central bank’s next vote on interest rates.

The request represents an extraordinary effort by the White House to shape the board before the Fed’s interest rate-setting committee meets next Tuesday and Wednesday. At the same time, Senate Republicans are pushing to confirm Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s nominee to an open spot on the Fed’s board, which could happen as soon as Monday.

Trump sought to fire Cook Aug. 25, but a federal judge ruled late Tuesday that the removal was illegal and reinstated her to the Fed’s board. Trump has accused Cook of mortgage fraud because she appeared to claim two properties as “primary residences” in July 2021, before she joined the board. Such claims can lead to a lower mortgage rate and smaller down payment than if one of them was declared as a rental property or second home. Cook has denied the charges.

On Tuesday, U.S. District Court Judge Jia Cobb ruled that the administration had not satisfied a legal requirement that Fed governors can only be fired “for cause,” which she said was limited to misconduct while in office. Cook did not join the Fed’s board until 2022.

In their emergency appeal, Trump’s lawyers argued that even if the conduct occurred before her time as governor, her alleged action “indisputably calls into question Cook’s trustworthiness and whether she can be a responsible steward of the interest rates and economy.”

The administration asked an appeals court to issue an emergency decision reversing the lower court by Monday. If their appeal is succesful, Cook would be removed from the Fed’s board until her case is ultimately resolved in the courts, and she would miss next week’s meeting.

If the appeals court rules in Cook’s favor, the administration could seek an emergency ruling from the Supreme Court.

Either way, the Fed is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate next week by a quarter-point to about 4.1%. When the Fed reduces its key rate, it often, over time, lowers borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and business loans. Some of those rates have already fallen in anticipation of cuts from the Fed.

Should Miran, a top economic adviser to Trump, win approval in time to join the Fed next week, he could push for a steeper half-point reduction to the Fed’s rate.

Yet there are 12 officials who vote on whether and by how much to cut, including the seven members of the Fed’s board as well as five of the Fed’s 12 regional bank presidents, who vote on a rotating basis.

Trump’s two other appointees to the Fed — Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman — might also support a half-point cut, but several of the Fed’s bank presidents have expressed concern about stubbornly elevated inflation and would almost certainly oppose such a large reduction.

If the Fed approves a quarter-point cut, it is possible there could be dissenting votes both from officials who preferred no cut and from those who support a half-point.





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Kawhi Leonard Reportedly Got Aspiration Payment Days After Clippers’ Wong Invested

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In December 2022, Kawhi Leonard reportedly received a quarterly payment for his endorsement deal with Aspiration days after Los Angeles Clippers vice chairman Dennis J. Wong made an investment as the company was heading toward bankruptcy.

On the latest episode of Pablo Torre Finds Out (starts at 22:05 mark), newly obtained documents obtained by Pablo Torre showed Leonard received a $1.75 million payment from Aspiration nine days after a company registered to Wong made a $1.99 million wire transfer to Aspiration.

According to a company bank statement obtained by Torre, the investment in Aspiration from Wong’s DEA 88 Investments LLP occurred on Dec. 6, 2022. Leonard’s payment from aspiration was transferred on Dec. 15.

In the original reporting from Torre released last week, Leonard—through his KL2 Aspire LLC—agreed to a four-year, $28 million endorsement deal with Aspiration in April 2022. The deal came eight months after he signed a four-year, $176.3 million contract to remain with the Clippers in free agency.

Torre reported there’s no evidence that Leonard did any promotion for Aspiration, which received an initial $50 million investment from Clippers governor Steve Ballmer, and one anonymous employee who worked for the company said the endorsement deal was done to “circumvent the salary cap.”

In the new report released on Thursday, Torre, citing sources and a review of Aspiration’s cap table and bank statements, noted there’s no public evidence indicating Wong or his company had ever invested in Aspiration prior to December 2022.

It was also pointed out by Torre that Wong’s investor agreement with Aspiration presented him with detailed formal disclosures that the company was in default, was being sued for millions of dollars and facing inquiries from government agencies.

According to Torre’s reporting, documents from the agreed-upon deal between KL2 and Aspiration required quarterly payments of $1.75 million. The reported investment from Wong came after Aspiration had failed to satisfy the third quarter payment owed no later than Sept. 30, 2022.

Per ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne, the Clippers announced in September 2021 a $300 million partnership with Aspiration. The deal came with a sponsorship in their new arena and a patch on the jerseys.

Aspiration filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on March 31, 2025.

In response to Thursday’s report, Wong did not respond to Torre’s questions about the investment, while the Clippers provided a statement.

“The details of our relationship with Aspiration are under NBA investigation, but it is clear the company was a house of cards that defrauded Steve and many others,” the Clippers said. “We look forward to sharing the facts with the league and providing them with all the information they need.” 

In an interview with Shelburne on Sept. 5, Ballmer denied allegations that the Clippers did anything to try circumventing the NBA salary cap and accused Aspiration of fraud.

“These were guys who committed fraud,” Ballmer added. “…They conned me. I made an investment in these guys thinking it was on the up and up and they conned me.”

The Clippers issued a statement denying that anyone in the organization, including Ballmer, were involved in any attempt to circumvent the salary cap.

Ballmer did say he set up in the introduction between Aspiration and Leonard, but that was as far as his involvement went.The NBA did confirm on Sept. 3 it had opened an investigation into the situation.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver told reporters on Wednesday he “never heard a whiff of anything” about Leonard, the Clippers and potential cap circumvention.

The NBA previously investigated the Clippers in 2020 over allegations that they violated league rules in recruiting Leonard when he was a free agent in the summer of 2019. They were ultimately cleared, as the league found no evidence of any wrongdoing.



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Brazil’s supreme court finds Bolsonaro guilty of plotting military coup | Jair Bolsonaro

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A majority of Brazil’s supreme court judges have voted to convict the country’s former president Jair Bolsonaro of plotting a military coup, leaving the far-right populist facing a decades-long sentence for leading the criminal conspiracy.

Justice Cármen Lúcia Antunes Rocha ruled on ​Thursday that Bolsonaro – a former paratrooper who was elected president in 2018 – was guilty of seeking to forcibly cling to power after losing the 2022 election, meaning three of the five judges involved in the trial had found Brazil’s former leader guilty.

Delivering her decisive vote, Rocha denounced what she called an attempt to “sow the malignant seed of anti-democracy” in Brazil – but celebrated how the country’s institutions had survived and were fighting back.

“Brazilian democracy was not shaken,” Rocha told a court in the capital, Brasília, warning of the spread of “the virus of authoritarianism”.

On Tuesday, two other judges, Alexandre de Moraes and Flávio Dino, also declared the 70-year-old politician guilty of leading what the former called “a criminal organisation” that had sought to plunge the South American country back into dictatorship.

Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court (STF) minister Carmen Lucia. Photograph: Eraldo Peres/AP

“Jair Bolsonaro was leader of this criminal structure,” Moraes said during a five-hour address in which he offered a comprehensive account of the slow-burn conspiracy against Brazilian democracy.

“The victim is the Brazilian state,” said Moraes, claiming the plot had unfolded between July 2021 and January 2023, when Bolsonaro supporters rampaged through Brasília after the election’s leftwing winner, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, took power.

A fourth judge, Luiz Fux, voted to absolve Bolsonaro on Wednesday, claiming there was “absolutely no proof” the former president had been aware or part of an alleged plot to assassinate Lula and Moraes in late 2022, or had tried to stage a coup.

Fux called the 8 January 2023 uprising – when hardcore Bolsonaristas ransacked the supreme court, presidential palace and congress – a “barbaric act” that had caused “damage of an Amazonian-scale”. But the judge, who also controversially argued that the court lacked jurisdiction over the case, claimed there was no proof Bolsonaro was to blame for inciting the riots.

Fux did, however, vote to convict two of Bolsonaro’s closest allies – his former defence minister Gen Walter Braga Netto and his former aide-de-camp Lt Col Mauro Cid – for the crime of violently attempting to abolish Brazilian democracy. The judge concluded that the pair had helped plan and bankroll a plot to murder Moraes in order to generate social mayhem they hoped would trigger a military intervention.

Bolsonaro’s sentence is expected to be set on Friday after the remaining judge, Cristiano Zanin, has cast his vote. Experts say the sentence for crimes including engineering a coup d’état and violently attempting to abolish Brazil’s democracy could be as high as 43 years. The former president did not attend court this week, remaining in his nearby mansion, where he is under house arrest and where police officers have been stationed to ensure he does not flee to one of Brasília’s foreign embassies.

Progressive elation at the downfall of a president blamed for rampant environment destruction, hundreds of thousands of Covid deaths and attacks on minorities, has been tempered by the realisation that his political movement remains very much alive. Some fear Fux’s questioning of the judges’ authority over the case could open the door to legal challenges and even the trial’s annulment in the future.

Supporters of Bolsonaro demonstrated in São Paulo on Brazilian Independence Day (7 September). Photograph: Amanda Perobelli/Reuters

“I wouldn’t declare Jair Bolsonaro’s political death,” said Dr Camila Rocha, a political scientist from the Brazilian Centre for Analysis and Planning who studies the Brazilian right.

Rocha expected supporters of the former president to keep fighting to rescue their leader from jail. Likely strategies included trying to elect a large number of rightwing senators in next year’s elections who could impeach members of the supreme court considered Bolsonaro’s foes; petitioning Donald Trump to heap more pressure on Brazil over Bolsonaro’s plight; and trying to ensure that a pro-Bolsonaro candidate beats Lula in the 2026 presidential election. Their hope was that a rightwing president might grant Bolsonaro a pardon, although the supreme court could torpedo those plans, she said.

“I think they’ll continue trying various ways of getting Bolsonaro out of jail and to uphold his leadership and keep him visible,” she predicted.

In recent weeks, pro-Bolsonaro lawmakers have been pushing the idea of an amnesty for their leader and others who were involved in the coup attempt and the 8 January 2023 riots in Brasília. They claim such forgiveness would help “pacify” a politically divided country.

But Fabio Victor, the author of a book about military involvement in Brazilian politics called Camouflaged Power, said he believed an amnesty would serve as an “incentive to illegality”. “It would send an awful signal – it would undoubtedly represent a setback to democracy,” he warned.

More details soon…



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