Business

Donald Trump’s 50% tariff on India kicks in as PM Modi urges self-reliance

Published

1 week ago

August 27, 2025

Bloomberg via Getty Images Narendra Modi, India's prime minister, wearing a bright saffron turban, points to crowds during the nation's Independence Day ceremony at Red Fort in New Delhi, India, on Friday, 15 August, 2025. — Modi has urged small shop owners and businesses to put up “Made in India” boards outside their stores

US tariffs of 50% on goods from India took effect on Wednesday as Donald Trump sought to punish Delhi for buying Russian oil and weapons.

The tariffs – among the highest in the world – include a 25% penalty for transactions with Russia that are a key source of funds for its war in Ukraine.

India, a vital strategic US partner in the Indo-Pacific, has shown no signs of stopping its purchases, calling the tariffs unfair and vowing to choose the “best deal” on buying oil to protect its 1.4 billion people.

But there are fears exports and growth in the world’s fifth largest economy could suffer. The US was, until recently, India’s largest trading partner.

The tariff setback has sent the Indian government into firefighting mode.

Earlier this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to cut taxes to mitigate the impact of the tariffs which will disrupt millions of livelihoods across the country’s export-driven industries that supply everything from clothes to diamonds and shrimp to American consumers.

He said a Diwali gift in the form of a “massive tax bonanza” was on its way for the common man and the millions of small businesses that power Asia’s third largest economy.

Wearing a bright saffron turban and addressing crowds of spectators from the ramparts of Delhi’s Red Fort during Independence Day celebrations, Modi also urged small shop owners and businesses to put up boards of “Swadeshi” or “Made in India” outside their stores.

“We should become self-reliant – not out of desperation, but out of pride,” he said. “Economic selfishness is on the rise globally and we mustn’t sit and cry about our difficulties, we must rise above and not allow others to hold us in their clutches.”

He has since repeated these comments in at least two other public addresses this week. Modi’s message to his countrymen has been loud and clear – both make in India and spend in India.

The former has proved increasingly difficult, with the share of manufacturing as part of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) stagnating at 15% levels, despite his government rolling out subsidies and production incentives over the years.

But spurring long-pending tax reforms that immediately put more money into the hands of people could help the government soften some of the blow, experts say.

And so, after a $12bn income tax giveaway announced in the budget earlier this year, Modi is now aiming for an overhaul of India’s indirect tax architecture – a reduction and simplification of the goods & service tax (GST).

AFP via Getty Images A burnt effigy of US President Donald Trump seen with flaming embers. Activists from different unions were part of a protest against the tariff hikes imposed by the US on India during a demonstration in Kolkata on August 13, 2025. — Donald Trump’s 50% tariff rate on India comes into effect on 27 August

GST, which was introduced eight years ago, replaced a maze of indirect taxes to reduce compliance and the cost of doing business.

But experts say it has too many thresholds and exemptions, making the system extremely complicated. They’ve repeatedly called for it to be revamped.

Now, Modi has promised precisely that, with India’s finance ministry putting out a proposal for a simplified two-tier GST system.

“Combined with the income tax cut in place from April 2025… the GST rate reforms [likely worth US$20bn; £14.7bn] should together provide a meaningful push to consumption,” analysts from Jeffries, a US brokerage house, said after the announcement.

Private consumption is a mainstay of India’s economy, contributing to nearly 60% of the country’s GDP. While rural spending – supported by a bumper harvest – has remained strong, demand for goods and services in cities has continued to slow down due to lower wages and job cuts in major sectors like IT, post the pandemic.

Modi’s “fiscal stimulus” or tax cuts should help ensure a consumption recovery, according to investment banking firm Morgan Stanley. It will push GDP up and drag inflation down.

“This is particularly crucial amid headwinds from ongoing global geopolitical tensions and adverse global tariff-related developments that might impair external demand,” Morgan Stanley said.

Among the sectors most likely to benefit from the tax breaks are consumer-facing ones such as, scooters, small cars, garments and even things like cement that goes into making homes, where demand typically picks up pace around Diwali.

While the specifics are unknown, most analysts estimate that the revenue loss on account of a lower GST would be offset by surplus collections of some taxes and higher than budgeted dividends from India’s central bank.

According to Swiss investment bank UBS, the GST cuts will also have a larger “multiplier effect” than the previous corporate and income tax cuts undertaken by Modi, as they “directly affect consumption at the point of purchase, potentially leading to higher consumer spending”.

AFP via Getty Images A garment worker wearing a green dress and saffron scarf sorts tailored shirts at an apparel manufacturing unit in Bengaluru on August 25, 2025. — Tariffs disrupt millions of livelihoods across the country’s export-driven industries such as textiles

Modi’s tax handouts could also increase the probability of a further interest rate reduction by India’s central bank, which has already slashed rates by 1% in the past few months – something that is likely to spur more lending, according to analysts.

This, along with a boost in the salaries of nearly five million government employees and 6.8 million pensioners that kicks in early next year, will help India’s economy retain its growth momentum, they say.

India’s stock markets have cheered these announcements. And despite the panic caused by trade uncertainties, earlier this month, India also got a rare sovereign rating upgrade from S&P Global, after a gap of 18 years. A sovereign rating measures how risky it is to lend to a government or invest in a country.

This is significant because it could lower the government’s borrowing costs and improve foreign investment flows into the country.

But even as Modi rushes through with long-delayed reforms, India’s growth prospects have slowed significantly from the 8% levels seen a few years ago, and its external crisis shows no sign of ebbing.

The war of words between Delhi and Washington, especially over the former’s energy purchases from Russia, have only intensified and trade negotiations which were set to begin earlier this week, have been called off.

Meanwhile, at 50%, the tariffs on India are akin to a sanction on trade between the world’s biggest and fastest growing economies, say experts – a scenario that would have been unthinkable even just a few months ago.

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Business

AI FOMO, Shadow AI, and Other Business Problems

Published

1 hour ago

September 4, 2025

Stephanie Kirmer

I have been encountering some interesting news about how the AI industry is progressing. It feels like a slowdown in this space is definitely on the horizon, if it hasn’t already started. (Not being an economist, I won’t say bubble, but there are lots of opinions out there.) GPT-5 came out last month and disappointed everyone, apparently even OpenAI executives. Meta made a very sudden pivot and is reorganizing its entire AI function, ceasing all hiring, immediately after putting apparently unlimited funds into recruiting and wooing talent in the space. Microsoft appears to be slowing their investment in AI hardware (paywall).

This isn’t to say that any of the major players are going to stop investing in AI, of course. The technology isn’t demonstrating spectacular results or approaching anything even remotely like AGI, which many analysts and writers (including me) had predicted it wouldn’t, but there’s still a level of utilization among businesses and individuals that is persisting, so there’s some incentive to keep pushing forward.

The 5% Success Rate

In this vein, I read the new report from MIT about AI in business with great interest this week. I recommend it to anyone who’s looking for actual information about how AI adoption is going from regular workers as well as the C-suite. The report has some headline takeaways, including an assertion that only 5% of AI initiatives in the business setting generate meaningful value, which I can certainly believe. (Also, AI is not actually taking people’s jobs in most industries, and in several industries AI isn’t having much of an impact at all.) A lot of businesses, it seems, have dived into adopting AI without having a strategic plan for what it’s supposed to do, and how that adoption will actually help them achieve their objectives.

I see this a lot, actually — executives who are significantly separated from the day to day work of their organization being gripped by FOMO about AI, deciding AI must become part of their business, but not stepping back and considering how this fits in with the business they already have and the work they already do.

Screwdriver or Magic Wand?

Regular readers will know I’m not arguing AI can’t or shouldn’t be used when it can serve a purpose, of course. Far from it! I build AI-based solutions to business problems at my own organization every day. However, I firmly believe AI is a tool, not magic. It gives us ways to do tasks that are infeasible for human workers and can accelerate the speed of tasks we would otherwise have to do manually. It can make information clearer and help us better understand lengthy documents and texts.

What it doesn’t do, however, is make business success by itself. In order to be part of the 5% and not the 95%, any application of AI needs to be founded on strategic thinking and planning, and most importantly clear-eyed expectations about what AI is capable of and what it isn’t. Small projects that improve particular processes can have huge returns, without having to bet on a massive upheaval or “revolutionizing” of the business, even though they aren’t as glamorous or headline-producing as the hype. The MIT report discusses how vast numbers of projects start as pilots or experimentation but don’t actually come to fruition in production, and I would argue that a lot of this is because either the planning or the clear-eyed expectations were not present.

The authors spend a significant amount of time noting that many AI tools are regarded as inflexible and/or incompatible with existing processes, resulting in failure to adopt among the rank and file. If you build or buy an AI solution that can’t work with your business as it exists today, you’re throwing away your money. Either the solution should have been designed with your business in mind and it wasn’t, meaning a failure of strategic planning, or it can’t be flexible or compatible in the way you need, and AI simply wasn’t the right solution in the first place.

Trading Security for Versatility

On the subject of flexibility, I had an additional thought as I was reading. The MIT authors emphasize that the internal tools that companies offer their teams often “don’t work” in one way or another, but but in reality a lot of the rigidity and limits placed on in-house LLM tools are because of safety and risk prevention. Developers don’t built non-functional tools on purpose, but they have limitations and requirements to comply with. In short, there’s a tradeoff here we can’t avoid: When your LLM is extremely open and has few or no guardrails, it’s going to feel like it lets the user do more, or will answer more questions, because it does just that. But it does that at a significant possible cost, potentially liability, giving false or inappropriate information, or worse.

Of course, regular users are likely not thinking about this angle when they pull up the ChatGPT app on their phone with their personal account during the work day, they’re just trying to get their jobs done. InfoSec communities are rightly alarmed by this kind of thing, which some circles are calling “Shadow AI” instead of shadow IT. The risks from this behavior can be catastrophic — proprietary company data being handed over to an AI solution freely, without oversight, to say nothing of how the output may be used in the company. This problem is really, really hard to solve. Employee education, at all levels of the organization, is an obvious step, but some degree of this shadow AI is likely to persist, and security teams are struggling with this as we speak.

Conclusion

I think this leaves us in an interesting moment. I believe the winners in the AI rat race are going to be those who were thoughtful and careful, applying AI solutions conservatively, and not trying to upturn their model of success that’s worked up to now to chase a new shiny thing. A slow and steady approach can help hedge against risks, including customer backlash against AI, as well as many others.

Before I close, I just want to remind everyone that these attempts to build the equivalent of a palace when a condo would do fine have tangible consequences. We know that Elon Musk is polluting the Memphis suburbs with impunity by running illegal gas generator powered data centers. Data centers are taking up double-digit percentages of all power generated in some US states. Water supplies are being exhausted or polluted by these same data centers that serve AI applications to users. Let’s remember that the choices we make are not abstract, and be conscientious about when we use AI and why. The 95% of failed AI projects weren’t just expensive in terms of time and money spent by businesses — they cost us all something.

Read more of my work at www.stephaniekirmer.com.

American Eagle’s shares soar as Sydney Sweeney boosts sales

Published

2 hours ago

September 4, 2025

Osmond Chia

Shares of fashion retailer American Eagle Outfitter have jumped after the company said that its tie-ups with celebrities Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelce are expected to drive strong sales between July and September.

The US firm’s stocks surged 25% in late trading on Wednesday as American Eagle boss Jay Schottenstein said its second-quarter performance “exceeded expectations“, boosted by the success of its ad campaigns.

American Eagle made headlines with its divisive “Great Jeans” ad for its denim line featuring Sweeney, sparking a debate over race and beauty standards.

The firm also ran a clothing series with athlete Kelce, days after news broke of his engagement to popstar Taylor Swift.

The fall season is off to a positive start, said Mr Schottenstein.

“Fuelled by stronger product offerings and the success of recent marketing campaigns with Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelce, we have seen an uptick in customer awareness, engagement and comparable sales.”

The Emmy-nominated actress, of Euphoria fame, appears in a jeans advertisement where she says: “Genes are passed down from parents to offspring, often determining traits like hair colour, personality and even eye colour. My jeans are blue.”

The commercial drew intrigue and offence. American Eagle has defended the advert, saying it is referring only to the company’s denim jeans.

The controversy even made it to the White House, with President Donald Trump chiming in to support the actress.

“Sydney Sweeney, a registered Republican, has the HOTTEST ad out there,” he wrote in a Truth Social post on Monday. “Go get ’em Sydney!”

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Business

The six things you should do if you’re in a crash

Published

2 hours ago

September 3, 2025

Rebecca Mason

As a former police detective, I’ve attended many car accidents but this summer, for the first time, I was in a head-on collision with another car myself.

Being directly involved in one of the more than 900 car accidents that happen in the UK every day gave me a different perspective.

The woman in the other car, in her early seventies, had a medical episode while driving and swerved straight into my lane and hit me.

At the time, I didn’t know any of that – I just remember a huge bang and then everything felt like a blur.

The next thing I knew, two men were at the side of the car trying to get me out. I couldn’t move. I was taken to the hospital for scans but amazingly, I got away with cuts and bruises.

I was very lucky, and the witnesses at the scene were so important because without them, I wouldn’t have understood what had actually happened.

Here are some of the key things I’ve now learnt about what to do in the immediate aftermath of an accident.

Rebecca Mason Car that has been involved in an accident — An elderly lady swerved into my lane and hit my car

1. Be careful what you say

Be mindful of what you say at the scene – both to the other driver and to people around you.

It might feel natural to apologise, even if it’s not your fault, but saying “I’m sorry” can sometimes be taken as an admission of guilt.

2. Stop, check for injuries and call 999

Rebecca Mason Inside of a car after a collision with glass on the seat and airbags — This is what my car looked like after the accident

Immediately after an accident, stop your car and turn the engine off – you’re actually committing an offence if you don’t stop after a collision. Then check yourself and your passengers for injuries.

If the cars involved can still move, and the road is clear, try to get your vehicle to a safe place nearby and switch on your hazard lights. If that’s not possible, leave it where it is and stand well back from the traffic.

Call 999 if someone is injured, if the other party drives away or if someone is causing a road block.

3. Exchange contact details

Make sure you exchange details with the other driver. Take down their name, address, contact details and insurance information.

You can also gather contact details from witnesses, as their statements can be critical later.

It’s important to inform your insurer as soon as possible, ideally within 24 hours.

4. Take lots of pictures

Rebecca Mason Site of a car accident with two people standing over a car — Don’t just take pictures of vehicle damage, include the entire scene of the accident

It’s always a good idea to record as much evidence as possible, even if it’s clearly the other party’s fault.

Capture photos of the damage and entire scene.

Stand at a distance to show the full layout, including the position of cars, road signs, weather, skid marks and surroundings.

Also look for CCTV on nearby buildings, shops, or public roads that may have captured the incident.

5. Make notes

Making as many notes as possible is helpful to remember exactly what happened.

Some of the vital details to get down are the time and date of the crash, as well as the registration, make, model and colour of all vehicles involved.

Write down any injuries you or other passengers have sustained.

Anything else you remember such as direction of travel, road name, your speed and any unusual behaviour can also be helpful.