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Goldman Sachs Warns An AI Slowdown Can Tank The Stock Market By 20%

Artificial intelligence has propelled the stock market to all-time highs, but Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) recently warned that once AI spending slows down, the stock market can tank by 20%. A research note from Goldman Sachs Analyst Ryan Hammond cited the danger of hyperscalers inevitably cutting back on AI expenditures, according to Fortune.
“A reversion of long-term growth estimates back to early 2023 levels would imply 15% to 20% downside to the current valuation multiple of the S&P 500,” Hammond reportedly wrote in his research note.
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Right now, AI spending is full steam ahead, but Hammond wrote that a few analysts are assuming that a sharp deceleration will take place in Q4 2025 and 2026.
Tech giants haven’t gotten the memo. Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) said this week it will spend $600 billion on AI over the next three years. Zuckerberg later posted on Threads that it’s possible the company will invest more than $600 billion during those three years. He even said a “significantly higher number” was likely through the end of the decade.
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) made another big AI deal this week by securing a five-year, $17.4 billion AI infrastructure deal with Nebius (NASDAQ:NBIS). This type of rapid spending indicates AI growth can continue beyond the current rally.
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Artificial intelligence plays a critical role in the stock market’s performance based on the top companies in major benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Data from Slickchart shows that top AI beneficiary Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) makes up approximately 7% of the S&P 500.
The top eight publicly traded corporations on the S&P 500 are all heavily invested in artificial intelligence. They are ramping up their AI spending and aim to release products and services that use AI. These eight companies make up more than 36% of the S&P 500.
There are also corporate giants outside of the S&P 500’s top 10 that still invest heavily in artificial intelligence. Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR), and Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) are some of the most notable S&P 500 members in the category.
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Robinhood CEO says just like every company became a tech company, every company will become an AI company

Earlier advances in software, cloud, and mobile capabilities forced nearly every business—from retail giants to steel manufacturers—to invest in digital transformation or risk obsolescence. Now, it’s AI’s turn.
Companies are pumping billions of dollars into AI investments to keep pace with a rapidly changing technology that’s transforming the way business is done.
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev told David Rubenstein this week on Bloomberg Wealth that the race to implement AI in business is a “huge platform shift” comparable to the mobile and cloud transformations in the mid-2000s, but “perhaps bigger.”
“In the same way that every company became a technology company, I think that every company will become an AI company,” he explained. “But that will happen at an even more accelerated rate.”
Tenev, who co-founded the brokerage platform in 2013, pointed out that traders are not just trading to make money, but also because they love it and are “extremely passionate about it.”
“I think there will always be a human element to it,” he added. “I don’t think there’s going to be a future where AI just does all of your thinking, all of your financial planning, all the strategizing for you. It’ll be a helpful assistant to a trader and also to your broader financial life. But I think the humans will ultimately be calling the shots.”
Yet, Tenev anticipates AI will change jobs and advised people to become “AI native” quickly to avoid being left behind during an August episode of the Iced Coffee Hour podcast. He added AI will be able to scale businesses far faster than previous tech booms did.
“My prediction over the long run is you’ll have more single-person companies,” Tenev said on the podcast. “One individual will be able to use AI as a huge accelerant to starting a business.”
Global businesses are banking on artificial intelligence technologies to move rapidly from the experimental stage to daily operations, though a recent MIT survey found that 95% of pilot programs failed to deliver.
U.S. tech giants are racing ahead, with the so-called hyperscalers planning to spend $400 billion on capital expenditures in the coming year, and most of that is going to AI.
Studies show AI has already permeated a majority of businesses. A recent McKinsey survey found 78% of organizations use AI in at least one business function, up from 72% in early 2024 and 55% in early 2023. Now, companies are looking to continually update cutting-edge technology.
In the finance world, JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon believes AI will “augment virtually every job,” and described its impact as “extraordinary and possibly as transformational as some of the major technological inventions of the past several hundred years: think the printing press, the steam engine, electricity, computing, and the Internet.”
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