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How Nonprofits Can Navigate Uncertainty
ALISON BEARD: Welcome to HBR On Leadership, case studies and conversations with the world’s top business and management experts—hand-selected to help you unlock the best in those around you. I’m HBR executive editor Alison Beard, filling in for Hannah Bates.
This month, we’ve been highlighting some of the best conversations from the 2025 HBR Leadership Summit held in April. In today’s episode, we hear from Janti Soeripto, President and CEO of Save the Children US. With 24,000 staff members working across 115 countries, Save the Children provides health, education, protection, emergency response, and advocacy services.
In this conversation with HBR editor at large Adi Ignatius, Soeripto draws on her experience in both the private and nonprofit sectors. She offers hard-won lessons on leading with clarity, measuring impact in volatile environments, and remaining agile while never losing sight of mission. From addressing child malnutrition to innovating supply chains in conflict zones, she explains how Save the Children stays resilient—and why optimism and data must coexist.
Whether you’re in philanthropy, business, or leadership of any kind, this episode will leave you thinking differently about what it takes to lead with both urgency and hope. Here it is.
ADI IGNATIUS: So Janti, let me ask. Save the Children was founded in the wake of World War I. A century has passed. We still are moving from crisis to crisis. Viral outbreaks, military conflicts, climate-related natural disasters. I have to ask, on the ground, does it feel more challenging, more fast paced than ever?
JANTI SOERIPTO: Look, I always think it’s good– we were founded in 1919. I think it’s always good to keep in mind this great quote from Max Rosen, who runs Our World in Data, which essentially says the world is awful, the world is so much better, and the world could still be so much better. So yes, of course, we’ve seen an increase in conflict.
We’ve seen during the pandemic in particular, that a lot of the progress made in terms of health and vaccination rates, et cetera, that we saw a rollback and we still see unequal progress across the world, across many countries and groups of people. At the same time, we should not forget that over the last 20 to 50 years, we’ve seen a halving of under-five mortality.
So children dying before the age of five of completely preventable causes like diarrhea, malaria, and pneumonia. We’ve seen huge improvements in maternal mortality, women dying in childbirth. We’ve seen a huge reduction in people living in poverty. I think in 1975, 60% of the world– 60%, more than half of the world’s population, was living in poverty, and now that number is below 10%.
ADI IGNATIUS: Yeah. That’s great to hear because I think there are moments when we feel things are very dire and it’s helpful to get some of the big picture data like that. I’m interested how your organization adapts itself in order to be agile and responsive. Again, with all of the things that are coming at you from various causes.
JANTI SOERIPTO: Yeah. And look, I’m not going to lie, it’s been an intense few months and arguably a very intense five years, actually. When I started this role, I had– as always, you have a plan until life kicks it in the teeth. We had a pandemic. We’ve had conflict breaking out in a number of regions. And now, of course, we’ve also had to deal with real shocks to the foreign assistance system.
Look, the good thing is, if you’re around for 105 years, you take some comfort and confidence from that because you have weathered really storms before, from world wars, literally, to huge periods of upheaval, of huge famine, of immense human suffering. And we’ve always found ways to be helpful and to be contributing to make sure that children’s rights are upheld and that children survive and thrive. So it gives you that.
On the other hand, of course, if you are 105 years old, you also have to be careful that you don’t become complacent and you’re too stuck in your ways and that you don’t innovate and all the rest of it, especially when you’re a large organization like ours. So the fact that we’re also doing a lot of emergency response– so half of our work is really working in real intense crisis settings, man-made as well as natural disasters, that makes you incredibly agile. So that culture, that ethos of responding to a crisis is very ingrained in our DNA.
ADI IGNATIUS: OK, so some of it is crisis response. But I’m also interested, you, like a private company, you have your supply chains, you have your kind of logistical processes. How do you build those to be resilient when, if there is a problem in one area of the world, it doesn’t affect your ability to deliver elsewhere.
JANTI SOERIPTO: Yeah. And I think here, this particular– our sector of development and humanitarian assistance can really learn from actually the private sector. And we have done so in Save the Children, for sure. We now have, I think, a supply chain that can hold its own against large, fast moving consumer goods companies.
We have incredibly capable expert professionals who procure at scale, who make sure our logistics are in line, who make sure that we have good warehouse management, that we have forecasting of what we think we’re going to need. So we really improved that over the last, I would say decade or so.
At the same time, because we are working in very fragile settings– think Sudan, Gaza, the Democratic Republic of the Congo– you will always run up against situations that you can’t control at all, from natural disasters to an outbreak of war, and then all of a sudden, where you thought you were working, you have to suspend, you have to withdraw because it’s literally too unsafe for your staff to work there.
And then you have to figure out what do you do with your warehouses, where do you then get your supplies from. So that level of creativity that I’ve seen from our supply chain professionals is well beyond and above what I’ve seen– what we needed when I worked in the private sector. But we now have coupled it with processes and systems, a procurement system, a warehouse management system, that gives you that sense of discipline and process.
ADI IGNATIUS: OK. So now we’ve seen big cuts in foreign aid, in funding from the US government and some other governments. What impact is that having so far? How do you think about that going forward?
JANTI SOERIPTO: Look, the impacts even today are disastrous. I’m not going to sugarcoat that at all. And we are incredibly concerned about, overall, where official development assistance seems to be going, which essentially is, in the best case, flatlining, in a more likely case, certainly declining. And there seems to be less sort of political support for essentially investing in people less fortunate than we are.
Which I think is a problem for humanity, because I don’t actually think people have become less empathetic or less generous. When we talk to our individual supporters, we don’t see that at all. But there’s certainly been a wind blowing against that. Look, we’re currently– we are working with over 100,000 children, trying to help them overcome malnutrition, acute malnutrition.
We’re talking about very young children, infants up until two years old, who are literally almost at starving because they don’t have enough food. It will kill young children within a few weeks. Even if you think they’re OK, within a few weeks, if you don’t get them the right treatment, they can die. Or even if they survive, it can impact their physical and cognitive abilities forever. Because once you’ve lost that window, then you can’t get that back, no matter how well you treat them.
We’re working with over 100,000 children today to help them overcome malnutrition, and we are now at risk of having to stop some of those interventions in a number of countries. And for the cost of all of $67 for a six weeks’ course. We’re talking about fortified peanut butter. Simple to administer. Children like it.
They recover miraculously. So we have figured out how to treat some of these most common causes of particularly young children dying. And what we need is some consistency and, yes, commitment in investing in that. And that, in the end, will give us an enormous– will give the world an enormous return on investment.
ADI IGNATIUS: Yeah. So I think you’ve put your finger on a challenge that a lot of people in the private sector feel now, which is, how do you even think about long term strategy, or even short term and medium term strategy when politics plays such a big role in your ability to actually execute?
JANTI SOERIPTO: Yeah. I think, look, you always have to keep your knees bent, as I said. If you make a plan, you have to be cognizant that the next day you have to– it’s sort of out the window. But you do have to stick, I think, to your mission, which is easier, I think, for an organization like Save the Children than it is sometimes for certain private sector companies. Our mission is very clear.
We never have to have a conversation to save the children about why are we here, does our brand have any purpose, what’s our purpose, what is our mission. So we know that. So that is there. Then, in a very volatile environment that we are in today, you really try to hone in on what can we control and how. And let’s not get too concerned about all the things that we cannot control and rumors and noise flying around.
Really, you got to try to shut it out and say, what can we control? What do we need to focus on? Even if it means delaying the things that we wanted to do, we thought were good to do, you have to tighten your focus, and then build back from there. And if at some point you’re coming into slightly calmer waters, you can maybe add another thing on that list that you liked so much, but you couldn’t do in the immediate term.
ADI IGNATIUS: Yeah. So this is a question that’s coming from the audience, from someone named Char who asks, how do prevent a culture that you have of, we’re ready to respond to a crisis from sliding into a kind of panic or sense of– a kind of overwhelmed mindset, because you are just going from crisis to crisis, and they get worse and funding gets harder to find. How do you manage that?
JANTI SOERIPTO: I think humanitarians tend to be quite calm in the face of crises more generally, because if you don’t, I think it’s really hard to work in the sector. So I do think we tend to be constitutionally quite calm. And again, you do have to remind them, your teams, your colleagues, A, that you’re in it together, B, that we have a mission to fulfill for children.
So let’s focus on them. And how do we make sure we keep the most crucial things working for them, whatever it takes. And if that means looking for new funding streams, if it means more advocacy for good and cost-effective policies, if it means making sure that communities support us in doing that– and usually it’s a combination of all those three things– that’s what you’re there to do.
I think what is nice about why it’s a privilege, I would say, to work in the sector, is that I can sit in front of the TV screen and scream at it all day long. But at the end of the day, we still know what we’re here to do, and our job is to make sure that all children have rights and that their rights are upheld. And that makes for a very powerful reason to get out of bed in the morning.
ADI IGNATIUS: Yeah. So I love the clarity of mission. I’m curious, though, do you also liken the private sector? Do you have measures of success? Do you have KPIs? And what would some of them be?
JANTI SOERIPTO: Yeah. And that was– I have to say, when I joined this organization over a decade ago, that was a little countercultural sometimes. So when I said KPIs, everybody was like, what? Now we have them. It is very much a language of this organization. Key performance indicators. They are reported every month. Some of them are very operational. Have we delivered x, y, z? Is our budget in line with what we thought it would be? Are the quality measures in green, amber, or red?
Do we run deficits in some countries? Et cetera. So there’s a couple that are very operational. And then ones that were a little harder to measure on a monthly basis, I would say, are really about outcomes for children. Did we get and keep more girls into school or more children, write large, into school? Did we make sure that the quality of that education was up to par?
Did we make sure that teachers, teacher attendance was going up? Did we make sure that we vaccinated all the children that we said we would vaccinate? So there are a couple of different levels that we measure success, we measure cost effectiveness of our most prevalent interventions much more clearly now than we used to do. Although I would also still say there is really room for improvement there.
ADI IGNATIUS: To what extent do you think nonprofits, including your own, need to learn from the private sector beyond applying goals and measurements? Are there other things that maybe you’ve adopted, maybe you haven’t yet that you think would be beneficial for nonprofits?
JANTI SOERIPTO: I think what I really liked– well, a couple of things from the private sector, that the private sector absolutely does better than this sector does. And there are some reasons for it too. But I think the attention for leadership development and really sound global mobility, talent development that I’ve benefited from in the private sector was amazing.
And in this sector for budgetary reasons, for just resource constrained reasons, that was less developed. So that’s one. Secondly, that single-minded focus that you can have in the private sector to chase down a particular goal. It could be brand equity. It can be the launch of an innovation, profit and revenue growth, entry of a new market.
That single-minded focus of we’re going to do this and we’re going to go after it. That, I think, in the private sector has been– is something that this sector can still really learn from and adopt and not get too distracted. Sometimes in the sector we get too distracted and we’re overthinking. We make things a little bit more complicated than they need to be. So that drive for simplification and focus, I think, is fantastic from the private sector that I’d like to see more of in this sector.
ADI IGNATIUS: So then let me flip the question and ask, what are approaches or lessons that the private sector can and should adopt from what people are trying to do well in the public sector?
JANTI SOERIPTO: Yeah. Look, I often say this to my colleagues who are still in the private sector that I worked with when they asked. I’m like, look, to be a country director in Save the Children or in any NGO, nonprofit anywhere is one of the most amazing jobs you can do, but also one of the hardest jobs for a leader. This sector is really good at working with much more diverse stakeholder.
In the private sector, as long as you stay within the law, you can basically do what you want in any particular country if you have a license to operate. For us, we have to deal with people being kidnapped. We have to deal with being thrown out of countries because the government doesn’t necessarily want us there.
We have to make sure that we stay within all of the sanctions and compliance frameworks that all of the donors that we have across the world put on this sector, for obvious and good reasons. But working through that compliance framework is really hard to do, particularly when you work in fragile states where most of your work is in fragile states like ours. Bringing different points of view together.
When I joined the sector, I noticed how much more diverse even the workforce was. It runs the gamut from community organizers to ex-bankers and CIOs and finance directors, everything in between. Whereas in the private sector, I always felt that it was a more homogeneous, in that sense, population. So creating alignment between a diverse group of stakeholders is something this sector really is very good at.
ADI IGNATIUS: So I want to go to a couple more audience questions. This is from Nicholas. And the question is, as you’re navigating crises, how do you decide when to rely on instinct versus when do you rely on data? So the question goes on, where uncertainty clouds both, what inner compass or discipline helps you? I mean, it’s a triage question, maybe, to make the right choices or to choose one path versus another.
JANTI SOERIPTO: Yeah. It’s a great question and it’s very much a triage question. We always operate on imperfect information. So let’s be clear. I don’t know which area of which country is going to fall apart at any given moment. You make some assessments. We have good intelligence gathering, all of it. But in the end, you have to sometimes make a call. Do you respond to this? Don’t you respond?
So I do think it’s both. I think we’ve gotten a lot better over these past couple of years to actually do more of the data part without completely ignoring instinct and this inherent, I think, ethos or knee jerk reaction of, we have to be there. We have to help. Which is fantastic, but sometimes it can also get in the way.
But we do. We have a whole– we literally have a whole schematic, ideally, essentially, or a rubric of saying, OK, which countries do we work in? What’s the available funding? How big is our footprint? How fragile are those countries with a particular measurement? And therefore, what are the gaps or where do we add value the most?
And how do we then– because if you have a scarce pot of money and a scarce pot of talent that can lead that work, you do have to make some choices. Right? You have to try to do that on a combination of the data, but also, you can’t be too emotionally wedded to one particular country, let’s say, or one particular region, or just respond to the last crisis du jour that is coming across your desk. So it is really trying to do both.
ADI IGNATIUS: There are moments when the politics get tricky and, let’s say, governments stop funding something they don’t want to fund. And the private sector steps up. It actually ends up being a rallying cry for individual donations. Are you seeing that? Is it too soon to see that? I mean, can you make up for what you’re losing in government assistance if individuals step up?
JANTI SOERIPTO: Look, I think on a macro level, there’s absolutely enough private wealth in the world to make up for what is taken out in terms of government funding not just in the United States, but everywhere else. I mean, absolutely. There is enough money, science, and knowledge in this world to make sure that children don’t have to die from preventable causes before the age of five.
This is really a tragedy of choice that we’re talking. It’s not a tragedy of resources and scarcity. That was the case maybe for the generation of my grandparents. But we no longer have that excuse. So that’s one. Secondly, I do think having government support is important not just for the scale of the resources, but it’s also about the influence and the seat at the table and the idea that countries across the world have this sense of solidarity and humanity that is broader than our self-interest.
The self-interest is important because that’s also there, but it is also about a higher level of solidarity. We have seen a good response from our private donors, individuals as well as corporates and other multilaterals, as we say. Now, because some of the drops have been so sudden and so extreme, you’re not going to backfill that in the short term.
But I think we have absolutely the story and the mission to get back to the levels where we were to make sure that we actually have that impact. Now, again, it’s also an opportunity to really work with national governments in the countries where we do most of this work– by the way, including in the United States– to say, OK, where do we think humanitarian assistance is the relevant funding stream or intervention?
Where do we think these international funding flows actually help? And where is it really the commitment and the responsibility of national governments to make sure that their budgets reflect the right outcomes and the right policies for children?
ADI IGNATIUS: So here’s a follow up question. This is from someone named Kenny. More specifically than where are you seeing the biggest drop off in generosity, and at the same time, where are you seeing the most resilience in generosity? And what do you think is driving each?
JANTI SOERIPTO: Look, we’ve seen the most sudden and pronounced drop off in US government funding, and that, for Save the Children, was significant. It was 30% of our overall global spend. So we had to adapt to that particular moment in time, which we have done over these past number of weeks.
But we have seen a reduction in certainly traditional government assistance also in a number of countries in Europe, across the world. And if it’s not a complete drop off, we have seen certainly a stagnation, which then, in real terms, means also a reduction. So we’ve seen it across the world. We haven’t seen a loss of generosity and commitment and loyalty in terms of our individual supporters the world over, I would say. Not just in the United States.
ADI IGNATIUS: I’m interested. A lot of companies, private sector companies that are spread around the world are not very good at sharing the kind of data and insights that they have. It tends to end up siloed. I’m curious, do you have a process for, I guess sharing experience, sharing learning from one part of the world with the organization more broadly?
JANTI SOERIPTO: Yes. I think– and you’re right. Even in my previous private sector life, there was always sometimes best practices and adoption– best practice, adoption, knowledge management, et cetera. And look, we suffer from those same ills. A lot of knowledge resides in people’s heads. So it’s very much a networked organization. If I want to know something, do I call, x, y, z in that country and then I get an answer?
And there’s essentially that is also a great strength, that networked feeling. Many of our colleagues have worked for this organization for many, many years. So there is a lot of that innate knowledge residing in people. Again, you do have to then also combine that with a little bit more structure and formality and systems.
So we do have– like the private sector has done, we do have global products that we have essentially codified as such to say if you do a literacy program in a particular country, these are the standard things that always have to be in place. Now, does it look different from a particular region in Ethiopia to Afghanistan or Bangladesh or the Congo?
Yes, of course. Different communities, different needs. But some things are always the same. And if you would walk into a classroom, a Save the Children run classroom right now anywhere in the world, you would see things that are very recognizable that you would expect to always see there in order to make sure you have a certain amount of quality and impact. So that is essential learning and knowledge management that we really try to drive home.
And we do it also on fundraising best practices. How do you build a brand? How do you attract more supporters to your mission across all these various markets in the world? So that’s there. And I do think what I like about this sector, that there’s much more sharing also with other organizations, which, in the private sector, of course, is always hard, competitive.
Pressures are absolutely there. In this sector, there is much more tendency to say, look, if we have a great literacy program or if somebody else has a great literacy program, quite often our things are the combination of a lot of best practice within the sector, not just Save the Children’s smart ideas.
ADI IGNATIUS: Now you’re competing for your talent with the private sector, and you obviously have a private sector pedigree of your own. What advice would you give to other nonprofit leaders about how to attract top notch talent into the public sector?
JANTI SOERIPTO: And I see a lot of– I mean, I get a lot of questions from people in the private sector that ask me, how do I get in? I’d like to do something which is more mission driven, et cetera. And it is, as always, any new industry is hard to come into if you’re not in it, because you don’t know exactly how entry works.
You don’t know the people. You don’t know exactly which organizations. You have to do some homework. If you want to attract them– and we do still, are very much open to attracting them, and we always look for– for most senior leadership or middle management roles, we look across sectors. So you do have to open yourself for business very publicly to say, we want people with different backgrounds.
So that’s one. Then once you attract them, you do have to make sure that they also then understand what they don’t understand. So there has to be some explicit learning and development so that people don’t come in with certain expectations that then are really difficult to meet or they fail for unnecessary reasons. So talent attraction, talent development, coaching, mentoring, et cetera.
When I joined Save, what is it, 13 years ago? I was really lucky to have just a couple of long time professionals around me that really helped me. And I could ask them all the dumb questions that I had, and they just steered me to the right interventions, to the right resources. They gave me the answers. They were patient. Et cetera. So you do have to be very consciously building that around people who come from a very different industry.
ADI IGNATIUS: Yeah. So we probably only have time for one more question. And this is from Doula. And it’s about staff morale and motivation. How do you keep morale and motivation going when people are dealing with crises, but they’re also not really sure what’s coming? Sometimes you’re just trying to stay afloat. How do you manage that?
JANTI SOERIPTO: Yeah. Again, if people have worked particularly in humanitarian assistance, they are used to that volatility and unpredictability, I would say. So we’re a little more resilient in that sense. And we get to work with amazing communities, children first and foremost, young people, parents, community leaders, everybody.
You see the best of humanity in our world. Yes, you see also the worst of humanity, but you see the best. So that is a massive morale booster, because it does remind you every day that, even if you have your own problems, they pale in comparison to some of the problems that the communities have that we work with. And you’re inspired by their creativity, resilience, and everything else. So that helps massively.
At the same time, we do also the same things that we do in the private sector, I assume, is making sure people have good support. We have invested now in really great HR professionals. We have invested in learning programs, in mentorship programs. We’ve set up a whole roster of mentorship programs for young junior staff out there at the country level to help them understand what a career path would look like. So that people see that there’s a real future for them, and a career path of growing and learning and working with some amazing people.
ADI IGNATIUS: So Janti, I really appreciate the work that you’re doing in the world. I want to thank you for making the time to talk with us today.
JANTI SOERIPTO: Thank you for having me, Adi.
ALISON BEARD: That was Save the Children US CEO Janti Soeripto in conversation with Adi Ignatius at the 2025 HBR Leadership Summit.
We’ll be back next Wednesday with another hand-picked conversation about leadership from Harvard Business Review. If you found wthis episode helpful, share it with your friends and colleagues, and follow our show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. While you’re there, be sure to leave us a review.
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This episode was produced by Dave Di Ulio, Elie Honein, Curt Nickisch, and me. Music by Coma Media. Special thanks to Julia Butler, Scott LaPierre, Simona Sparane, Maureen Hoch, Amy Poftak, Alex Kephart, Rob Eckhardt, Erica Truxler, Ramsey Khabbaz, Nicole Smith, Anne Bartholomew, and you – our listener. See you next week.
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Apple AI Model Head Reportedly Leaving For Meta
AI Insights
60% of Teachers Used AI This Year and Saved up to 6 Hours of Work a Week – The 74
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Nearly two-thirds of teachers utilized artificial intelligence this past school year, and weekly users saved almost six hours of work per week, according to a recently released Gallup survey. But 28% of teachers still oppose AI tools in the classroom.
The poll, published by the research firm and the Walton Family Foundation, includes perspectives from 2,232 U.S. public school teachers.
“[The results] reflect a keen understanding on the part of teachers that this is a technology that is here, and it’s here to stay,” said Zach Hrynowski, a Gallup research director. “It’s never going to mean that students are always going to be taught by artificial intelligence and teachers are going to take a backseat. But I do like that they’re testing the waters and seeing how they can start integrating it and augmenting their teaching activities rather than replacing them.”
At least once a month, 37% of educators take advantage of tools to prepare to teach, including creating worksheets, modifying materials to meet student needs, doing administrative work and making assessments, the survey found. Less common uses include grading, providing one-on-one instruction and analyzing student data.
A 2023 study from the RAND Corp. found the most common AI tools used by teachers include virtual learning platforms, like Google Classroom, and adaptive learning systems, like i-Ready or the Khan Academy. Educators also used chatbots, automated grading tools and lesson plan generators.
Most teachers who use AI tools say they help improve the quality of their work, according to the Gallup survey. About 61% said they receive better insights about student learning or achievement data, while 57% said the tools help improve their grading and student feedback.
Nearly 60% of teachers agreed that AI improves the accessibility of learning materials for students with disabilities. For example, some kids use text-to-speech devices or translators.
More teachers in the Gallup survey agreed on AI’s risks for students versus its opportunities. Roughly a third said students using AI tools weekly would increase their grades, motivation, preparation for jobs in the future and engagement in class. But 57% said it would decrease students’ independent thinking, and 52% said it would decrease critical thinking. Nearly half said it would decrease student persistence in solving problems, ability to build meaningful relationships and resilience for overcoming challenges.
In 2023, the U.S. Department of Education published a report recommending the creation of standards to govern the use of AI.
“Educators recognize that AI can automatically produce output that is inappropriate or wrong. They are well-aware of ‘teachable moments’ that a human teacher can address but are undetected or misunderstood by AI models,” the report said. “Everyone in education has a responsibility to harness the good to serve educational priorities while also protecting against the dangers that may arise as a result of AI being integrated in ed tech.”
Researchers have found that AI education tools can be incorrect and biased — even scoring academic assignments lower for Asian students than for classmates of any other race.
Hrynowski said teachers are seeking guidance from their schools about how they can use AI. While many are getting used to setting boundaries for their students, they don’t know in what capacity they can use AI tools to improve their jobs.
The survey found that 19% of teachers are employed at schools with an AI policy. During the 2024-25 school year, 68% of those surveyed said they didn’t receive training on how to use AI tools. Roughly half of them taught themselves how to use it.
“There aren’t very many buildings or districts that are giving really clear instructions, and we kind of see that hindering the adoption and use among both students and teachers,” Hrynowski said. “We probably need to start looking at having a more systematic approach to laying down the ground rules and establishing where you can, can’t, should or should not, use AI In the classroom.”
Disclosure: Walton Family Foundation provides financial support to The 74.
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How terrorist groups are leveraging AI to recruit and finance their operations | Islamic State
Counter-terrorism authorities have, for years, characterized keeping up with terrorist organizations and their use of digital tools and social media apps as a game of Whac-a-Mole.
Jihadist terrorist groups such as Islamic State and its predecessor al-Qaida, or even the neo-Nazi group the Base, have leveraged digital tools to recruit, covertly finance via crypto, download weapons for 3D printing and spread tradecraft to its followers, all while leaving law enforcement and intelligence agencies playing catch up.
Over time, thwarting attacks and maintaining the technological advantage over these types of terror groups has evolved, as more and more open source resources become available.
Now, with artificial intelligence – both on the horizon as a rapidly developing technology and in the here and now as free, accessible apps – agencies are scrambling.
Sources familiar with the US government’s counterterrorism efforts told the Guardian that multiple security agencies are very concerned about how AI is making hostile groups more efficient in their planning and operations. The FBI declined to comment on this story.
“Our research predicted exactly what we’re observing: terrorists deploying AI to accelerate existing activities rather than revolutionise their operational capabilities,” said Adam Hadley, the founder and executive director of Tech Against Terrorism, an online counterterrorism watchdog, which is supported by the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED).
“Future risks include terrorists leveraging AI for rapid application and website development, though fundamentally, generative AI amplifies threats posed by existing technologies rather than creating entirely new threat categories.”
So far, groups such as IS and other adjacent entities, have begun using AI, namely OpenAI’s chatbot, ChatGPT, to amplify recruitment propaganda across multimedia in new and expansive ways. Not unlike the imminent threat it poses to upending modern workforces in dozens of job sectors and is poised to enrich some of the wealthiest people on earth – AI will complicate new public safety issues.
“You take something like a Islamic State news bulletin, you can now turn that into an audio piece,” said Moustafa Ayad, the executive director for Africa, the Middle East and Asia at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue. “Which we’ve seen supporters do and support groups, too, as well as photo arrays that they produce centrally.”
Ayad continued, echoing Hadley: “A lot of what AI is doing is enabling what’s already there. It’s also supporting their capacity in terms of propaganda and dissemination – it’s a key part of that.”
IS isn’t hiding its fascination with AI and has now openly recognized the opportunity to capitalize on what it currently offers, even providing a “Guide to AI Tools and Risks” to its supporters over an encrypted channel. In one of its latest propaganda magazines, IS outlined the future of AI and how the group needs to embrace it as part of its operations.
“For every individual, regardless of their field or expertise, grasping the nuances of Al has become indispensable,” it wrote in an article. “[AI] isn’t just a technology, it’s becoming a force that shapes war.” In the same magazine, an IS author explains that AI services can be “digital advisors” and “research assistants” for any member.
Over an always active chat room that IS uses to communicate with its followers and recruits, users have begun discussing the many ways AI can be a resource, but some were wary. One user asked if it was safe to use ChatGPT for “how to do explosives” but weren’t sure if agencies were keeping tabs on it – which has become one of the broader privacy concerns surrounding the chatbot since its inception.
“Are there any other options?” asked an online IS supporter in the same chat room. “Safe one.”
But another user found a less obvious way around setting off any alarms if they were being watched: by dropping the schematics and the instructions on how to create a “simple blueprint for Remote Vehicle prototype according to chatgpt”. Truck ramming has become a choice method for IS in recent attacks involving followers and operatives, alike. In March, an IS-linked account also released an AI-created bomb making video with an avatar, for a recipe that can be created with household items.
Far-right groups have also been curious about AI, with one advising followers on how to create disinformation memes, while others have looked to AI for the creation of Adolf Hitler graphics and propaganda.
Ayad said some of these AI-driven tools have also been a “boon” to terror groups and their operational security – techniques to securely communicate without prying eyes – such as encrypted voice modulators that can mask audio, which altogether, “can assist with them further cloaking and enhancing their opsec” and day-to-day tradecraft.
Terror groups have always been at the forefront of maximizing and embracing digital spaces for their growth, AI is just the latest example. In June 2014, IS, still coming into the global public consciousness, live-tweeted imagery and messages of their mass executions of over 1,000 men as they stormed Mosul, which caused soldiers in the Iraqi army to flee in fear. After the eventual establishment of the so-called Caliphate and its increasing cyber operations, what followed was a concerted and coordinated effort across government and Silicon Valley to crackdown on all IS accounts online. Since, western intelligence agencies have singled out crypto, encrypted texting apps, sites where 3D printed guns can be found, among others, as spaces to police and surveil.
But recent cuts to counterterrorism operations across world governments, including some by Doge in the US, have degraded efforts.
“The more pressing vulnerability lies in deteriorating counter-terrorism infrastructure,” said Hadley. “Standards have significantly declined with platforms and governments less focused on this domain.”
Hadley explained how this deterioration is coinciding with “AI-enabled content sophistication” urging companies like Meta and OpenAI, to “reinforce existing mechanisms including hash sharing and traditional detection capabilities” and work to develop more “content moderation” surrounding AI.
“Our vulnerability isn’t new AI capabilities but our diminished resilience against existing terrorist activities online,” he added.
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