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Welcome Aboard the ‘AI Crazy Train’

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There’s a fear in investing when a sector swells rapidly. Booming stock prices and aggressive spending feel great, until things inevitably cool off. Then comes the reckoning: Who overdid it in irreversible ways?

Big Tech is in an AI arms race, each company trying to outspend the others on data centers, GPUs, networking gear, and talent. Engineers can be let go. But the infrastructure? That’s permanent. If the AGI dream fades, you’re stuck with massive, costly assets.

So when Google announced it would hike capex by $10 billion to $85 billion in 2025 eyebrows went up. Most of it is for things you can’t walk back: chips, data centers, and networking.

Google is “jumping aboard the AI crazy train,” Bernstein analyst Mark Shmulik wrote, referencing a song by the late bat biter Ozzy Osbourne.

Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg brags about Manhattan-sized data centers. And Elon Musk keeps hoarding GPUs. While Sam Altman is building mega-data centers with partners. JPMorgan dubbed this “vibe spending,” warning OpenAI might burn $46 billion in four years.

It’s no shock when Elon, Zuck, and Sam flex on capex. But Google? That’s surprising. “Google doesn’t do this,” Shmulik said. The company has been viewed as measured in recent years, prioritizing investment intensity with care. Not anymore.

Now investors want to know: Will these swelling bets pay off?

There are promising signs. Since May, Google’s monthly token processing (the currency of generative AI) has doubled from 480 trillion to nearly a quadrillion. Search grew 12% in Q2, beating forecasts. Cloud sales surged 32%. CEO Sundar Pichai said Google is ramping up capex to support all this growth.

But it’s still a huge gamble. “Does the current return on invested capital seen in both Search and Cloud hold up at higher [capex] intensity levels,” Shmulik asked, “or is the spend a very expensive piece of gum trying to plug an AI-sized hole?” He leans optimistic.

Still, Google shares rose just 1% after these results. Not exactly a resounding endorsement.

Sign up for BI’s Tech Memo newsletter here. Reach out to me via email at abarr@businessinsider.com.





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BYD shares slide as China’s EV price war hits profits

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Shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD slid by as much as 8% on Monday after it reported a drop in profit because of a price war in China’s car sector.

The carmaker had on Friday reported that its net profit fell to 6.4bn yuan ($900m; £660m) between April and June, down 30% from a year earlier.

BYD said in its filing that “increased price competition” among China’s EV brands had impacted the industry.

The Shenzhen-based manufacturer is facing an increasingly crowded market, competing against local rivals Nio and XPeng and US carmaker Tesla, which have all slashed prices to draw buyers.

The carmaker’s stock fell at the open in Hong Kong on Monday but recovered slightly throughout the day.

Competition in China’s car sector has reached a “fever pitch”, said BYD in its statement.

It said “industry malpractices… [like] excessive marketing” played a part in disrupting the market.

EV makers have subsidised car dealers and offered zero-interest loans to buyers as the industry becomes increasingly cutthroat.

It has prompted warnings from Beijing, which urged automakers to stop the aggressive discounts in order to protect the economy.

Average car prices in China have fallen by around 19% over the past two years, currently standing at around 165,000 yuan ($23,100; £17,100), according to industry estimates.

And despite significant sales abroad, BYD’s earnings fell short of analysts’ estimates for a modest increase.

The company targeted global sales of 5.5 million cars this year, but it has sold just 2.49 million by the end of July.

BYD’s “surprising” performance suggests that even the leader of China’s EV sector won’t necessarily win from a “cut-throat” price war, said industrial policy expert Laura Wu from Singapore.

“[The] drop in stock price trading this morning signals investor’s disappointment,” she said.

Beijing’s push to end the EV price war is tough, as past policies have led to too many players in the sector, said Prof Wu from Nanyang Technological University.

Price cuts may benefit consumers, but they risk creating an oversupply of Chinese EVs in the long run, she added.

BYD has grown to become the world’s largest EV maker, surpassing Tesla in annual revenue in 2024, thanks to the wide appeal of its hybrid vehicles in China, Asia and European markets.



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Forget Takeout War — Alibaba Makes Clear the Real Play in China Is AI

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Tech giant Alibaba has been fighting a bruising food delivery war in China. But the company’s latest earnings make it clear that artificial intelligence is what investors really care about.

On Friday, Alibaba reported a 2% rise in overall revenue to 247.65 billion Chinese yuan, or $34.6 billion, for the quarter ended June 30 — missing analysts’ forecasts of $252.92 billion yuan in revenue. Operating profit dropped 3% to 35 billion yuan.

Despite that drag, investors piled in.

Alibaba’s New York-listed shares closed 12.9% higher on Friday to $135 apiece, while its Hong Kong-listed stock gained as much as 18% Monday morning.

The rally was fueled by a triple-digit percentage gain in AI-related product revenue and Alibaba Cloud’s 26% year-over-year revenue surge to 33.4 billion yuan — beating analyst expectations for an 18% rise.

That performance underscores how investors are zeroing in on AI as Alibaba’s next growth engine.

“Our investments in AI have begun to yield tangible results,” said Alibaba Group CEO Eddie Wu on Friday’s earnings call.

“We’re seeing an increasingly clear path for AI to drive Alibaba’s robust growth,” Wu said.

Analysts are upbeat too.

“For Cloud, it maintains accelerating growth on rising AI adoption with enhanced modeling capabilities and strong inference/training demands,” wrote equity analysts at Jefferies on Friday.

That long-term upside explains why investors are looking past the bruising economics of food delivery.

Quick commerce drags on profits

The cloud boom stands in sharp contrast to Alibaba’s costly delivery battles.

Alibaba’s China e-commerce business — which includes its traditional e-commerce and food delivery businesses — managed a 10% revenue growth from last year, to 140 billion yuan.

But, earnings before interest, taxes, and amortization fell 21% from a year ago amid heavy subsidies for food delivery and instant shopping.

That weakness reflected the heavy toll of Alibaba’s quick commerce push. It has been burning billions of yuan to compete with rivals Meituan — the market leader — and new entrant JD.com in food delivery and instant shopping.

Jiang Fan, Alibaba’s e-commerce chief, acknowledged on Friday’s call that the company has spent heavily to build up the quick commerce business, but said the losses will shrink as repeat customers drive efficiency.

Nomura analysts wrote on Monday that Alibaba’s quick commerce sector has scaled up enough for the company to “shift emphasis from land grabs to optimizing efficiency.”

Chelsey Tam, a senior equity analyst at Morningstar, struck a similar note, arguing Alibaba is better positioned in the current food delivery battle.

“We believe Alibaba has leveraged its ecosystem resources far more effectively than in previous food delivery competitions, increasing its chances of gaining market share and achieving profitability in the medium term,” wrote Tam on Friday.

Alibaba’s stock is 59% higher in New York this year. Its Hong Kong-listed stock is up 65% over the same period.





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LF announced on the 1st that it held the first “2025 Generative AI Business Innovation Challenge” fo..

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Work efficiency and creative attempts to secure sustainable competitiveness

Hedges The site of global orders for the spring and summer season of 2026. [Picture = LF]

LF announced on the 1st that it held the first “2025 Generative AI Business Innovation Challenge” for executives and employees across the company to discover practical improvement ideas using generative artificial intelligence (AI) technology and expand them into pilot projects applicable to actual work.

This contest was an important opportunity to internalize the company-wide AI utilization capabilities and establish an innovative culture.

The contest was held in a way that freely suggested ideas using Generative AI in various jobs such as planning, design, production, sales, marketing, VMD, and CRM.

A total of 18 teams participated during the reception period, and various ideas specific to the fashion industry were submitted, such as deriving AI-based designs, generating virtual fitting images for models, and optimizing demand forecasts.

After document screening and concept verification steps, a total of 10 teams advanced to the finals and conducted pilot tests by applying actual AI tools.

At the final presentation held on the 28th, the best ideas were selected by comprehensively evaluating implementation completion, quantitative work effectiveness verification, technology and tool suitability, sustainability and scalability. Excellent ideas will be tested in actual work through a technology verification process.

At the awards ceremony held on the 28th of last month, three cases were selected as “best ideas,” including the development of an in-house data search system based on images and keywords, the advancement of video content production using AI, and the development of LF mall size error value filters.

“Development of an in-house data search system,” which won the grand prize (first place), is an idea that can check similar styles, past sales insights, and customer reviews in one click using images and keywords. Through this, it was highly evaluated for being able to speed up strategy establishment and maximize work efficiency when planning new products.

“Digital transformation is essential for brands to have sustainable competitiveness in a rapidly changing market environment,” said Kim Sang-kyun, CEO of LF. “Through this challenge, we will discover cases of creative digital innovation centered on the field and actively incorporate them into strengthening AI competitiveness and leading the fashion business.”

Meanwhile, LF is leading various digital innovations using Generative AI at the brand level as well. LF’s flagship brand Hedges is evolving its communication method with customers in three dimensions through innovative attempts such as releasing AI content and using AI models.



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