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China Wants to Use 115,000 Banned Nvidia Chips to Fulfil Its AI Ambitions (NVDA)

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By Andy LinMackenzie HawkinsColum MurphyJames Mayger
Graphics by Jin WuAdrian Leung

Yiwu Advanced Computing Cluster

There’s a construction boom under way on the edge of the Gobi desert in Xinjiang, where cranes are at work in fields of rock and the sound of jackhammers fills the air.
Here in the modest county of Yiwu, China is building out its ambitions to lead the world in artificial intelligence.
The futuristic structures are data centers that the operators seek to equip with high-end American semiconductors — chips that the US government doesn’t want its geopolitical rival to obtain.

A Bloomberg News analysis of investment approvals, tender documents and company filings shows that Chinese firms aim to install more than 115,000 Nvidia Corp. AI chips in some three dozen data centers across the country’s western deserts. Operators in Xinjiang intend to house the lion’s share of those processors in a single compound — which, if they can pull it off, could be used to train foundational large-language models like those of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek.

The complex as envisioned would still be dwarfed by the scale of AI infrastructure in the US, but it would significantly boost China’s computing prowess as President Xi Jinping pushes for technological breakthroughs. Such a project also would raise serious concerns for officials in Washington, who restricted leading-edge Nvidia chip sales to China in 2022 over worries that advanced AI could give Beijing a military edge.

Yet the Chinese documents contain no explanation of how companies plan to acquire the chips, which cannot be legally purchased without licenses from the US government, permits that haven’t been given. The companies listed in the filings, state officials and central government representatives in Beijing declined to comment when asked to explain.

To gauge whether Chinese entities could realistically procure that quantity of restricted processors, Bloomberg News spoke with more than a dozen people who’ve been involved in or privy to US government investigations into the matter, as well as several people with direct knowledge of the black market in China.

Listen: Big Take: China’s Got Big Plans for AI — In the Desert (Podcast)

None of those familiar with the US probes said they previously knew of the data center buildout in Xinjiang. All said that while they believe there are indeed banned chips in China, they’re not aware of an illicit trade network sophisticated enough to procure more than 100,000 such processors and direct that hardware to a centralized location.

But the US government doesn’t appear to have reached a consensus on the number of restricted Nvidia chips currently in the Asian country. Most of the people interviewed for this story said they were unaware of an agreed-upon estimate, while some offered rough numbers that differed by tens of thousands of processors.

Two senior Biden administration officials said they believe there are around 25,000 banned Nvidia chips in China — a number that, one of them added, would not be terribly concerning. That volume of semiconductors, assuming they are integrated into servers and designated for the same facility, could power at most one mid-sized data center.

The US Commerce Department — whose Bureau of Industry and Security, known as BIS, is tasked with implementing and enforcing chip trade restrictions — did not answer detailed questions for this story, including how many banned Nvidia chips the Trump administration believes are in China, nor whether Trump officials were previously aware of the projects in Xinjiang.

“Posting a web page asking about restricted products is not the same as successfully licensing, building, and operating a datacenter,” Nvidia said in an emailed response to questions about the Chinese companies’ claims. “Datacenters are massive and complex systems, making smuggling extremely difficult, and we do not provide any support or repairs for restricted products.”

The California-based company also said that “trying to cobble together a datacenter from smuggled, previous-generation products makes no business or engineering sense,” especially since chips and servers made by Huawei Technologies Co. are widely available in China. Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive officer, made his position clear at a May conference in Taipei: “There’s no evidence of any AI chip diversion,” he said.

Yet the head of BIS pointedly contradicted that assertion just weeks later, telling US lawmakers that there is clearly a problem with AI chip smuggling. “It’s happening,” said Commerce Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler. “It’s a fact.” Although Kessler didn’t mention Nvidia by name, the company is by far the dominant provider of such semiconductors. Kessler also said that US efforts to restrict Huawei’s chipmaking capabilities will keep China’s output at just 200,000 AI processors this year — a number far short of domestic demand.

To be sure, Bloomberg News has not found evidence that China has amassed, or can amass, 115,000 banned Nvidia chips — nor evidence that smaller volumes of restricted semiconductors that US officials believe are in the country have been directed to centralized locations.

And yet in Yiwu, the construction goes on.

Looming out of the desert, a tower the height of the Golden Gate Bridge radiates an intense light that pierces the surrounding dust clouds. Arrays of reflectors focus the sun’s energy onto a receiver that allows the daytime heat of the arid plains to be stored, ensuring continuous power generation.

It’s one main reason for the choice of Yiwu, just to the south over a mountain pass. On the barren hill behind one new building stands a wall with a slogan picked out in red Chinese letters two meters high: “Data-electricity fusion shows great promise.”

Xinjiang, and especially the Hami region which includes Yiwu County, is rich in wind and solar energy, as well as abundant in coal, offering a ready source of affordable power. Local governments there are at the forefront of a state strategy to take advantage of those energy resources — along with cheap land and cool weather at altitude, helping counter the heat generated by racks of servers — to meet the AI computing-power demand of more economically developed regions such as Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Xinjiang, China’s Major Hub for Renewable Energy

Rich in wind and solar energy resources, Hami in eastern Xinjiang has become one of China’s largest renewable power bases

Sources: Global Renewables Watch; OpenStreetMap; satellite images from Bing; photography by Visual China Group via Getty

On a midweek day in March, workers loaded windmill blades onto the back of trucks traveling the road between the prefectural capital of Hami City and Yiwu, over bleak terrain past occasional camels grazing, and through a new tunnel leading out to a plain with views of snow-capped mountains. The main road into town leads past the first data center, still under construction, with a man welding from his perch on metal scaffolding.

Hami is best known for its sweet melons, and Yiwu claims to be the site of the last battle on the mainland of the Chinese civil war in 1949. There’s a monument downtown dedicated to a horse that played a role in the final engagement between Communist forces and nationalists loyal to Chiang Kai-shek.

The authorities in Xinjiang are particularly suspicious of foreigners due to Western allegations of human-rights abuses against ethnic Uyghurs. Interview requests sent to eight data center operators in Yiwu were ignored, rejected or agreed to and then cancelled at short notice. The Xinjiang government and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the central government ministry overseeing data center development, didn’t reply to Bloomberg requests for comment.

The most important part of a giant data center is relatively small. Nvidia dominates the market for so-called AI accelerators, highly coveted components that have propelled the chipmaker’s valuation to nearly $4 trillion. The processors are connected together in giant arrays numbering tens of thousands and used to sift through mountains of data to create new computer code that can in many ways approximate human intelligence.

Most of the servers planned for the data centers in Xinjiang and Qinghai are supposed to run on the H100, one of the most powerful AI chips designed by Nvidia, investment documents show. Photographer: Marlena Sloss/Bloomberg

The US barred China from importing Nvidia’s best chips in October 2022, a month before OpenAI’s ChatGPT debut roiled the tech industry and sparked a global race that now includes DeepSeek among its top players. Washington several times has ratcheted up those curbs, restricting sales to China of a variety of advanced semiconductors and the machines used to make them — with additional sanctions levied on specific Chinese tech companies. That sweeping effort, which dates back to Trump’s first term, has become a primary source of tension with Beijing — one that Chinese officials repeatedly raised in recent trade talks with the US after the Trump administration imposed punitive tariffs.

“All the greatest chips in the world are American, right? So of course they want them,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC last month, speaking about China’s position during negotiations in London. “And of course we said ‘absolutely not.’”

The Xinjiang effort suggests that China’s AI ambitions — which hinge in large part on locally produced chips from the likes of Huawei — still include some hope of accessing restricted Nvidia hardware too. Project approval documents show that in the fourth quarter of 2024, local governments in Xinjiang and in neighboring Qinghai province green-lit a total of 39 data centers that intend to use more than 115,000 Nvidia processors.

All of the companies stated in their investment plans that they aim to obtain H100 or H200 chips, two Nvidia GPUs, or graphics processing units, that were the industrial standard for training large language models such as OpenAI’s GPT4o and Google’s Gemini through last year. Nvidia this year debuted a new, more advanced model — dubbed the Grace Blackwell — that is banned along with the H100 and H200 from export to China without a US government license.

Seven Xinjiang projects that aim to use those processors had started construction or won open tenders for AI computing service as of June 2025, according to tender documents obtained by Bloomberg. One operator says it’s already using advanced hardware facilities to support cloud access to DeepSeek’s R1 model, according to local news reports. Still, the provincial projects’ description of their intended computing capabilities may be somewhat aspirational: Local party officials try to signal to Beijing that they are working toward national priorities, but Chinese companies frequently launch initiatives that are never completed.

One of the largest projects involves a company ultimately controlled by Nyocor Co., a Tianjin-based energy firm mainly engaged in solar and wind power. It proposes to build a data center powered by 625 H100 servers, one of the banned Nvidia models. It would start with 250 servers in the first phase.

That’s 2,000 H100 chips. Tender documents show the Nyocor project has started installing servers and other equipment at the data center building, and has asked China Bester Group, a Hubei-based IT company, to supply the hardware. Unlike the investment approval documents, which explicitly state the company wants to use H100s, the tenders don’t specify whether the installed servers run on Nvidia chips or some alternative. The amount of the investment was not disclosed.

Nyocor is selling its computing power to Infinigence AI, one of the largest AI infrastructure companies in China. The company has raised one billion yuan since creation. “Our goal is to turn computing service into facilities like water and gas, readily available when developers turn on the switch,” said Infinigence’s CEO in an interview with local media in September 2024.

Bloomberg estimates that in order to complete all of the 39 projects as outlined, companies would need to figure out a way to purchase more than 14,000 data servers or 115,000 Nvidia H100 or H200 chips, both banned for China-based entities. Bloomberg estimates these chips would be worth billions of dollars based on black market prices in China.

Sources: Investment approval documents published by National Public Credit and Geospatial Information Center

Nyocor declined to comment. China Bester and China Energy Investment didn’t reply to requests for comment. Infinigence AI couldn’t be reached for a response.

Around 70% of computing power planned by the identified projects is in a single compound set up by the local government in Xinjiang. That makes the region — the epicenter of Western charges of Chinese rights abuses including forced labor and religious persecution — pivotal to China’s efforts to seize the lead from the US in a sphere seen as key to future global technological, and geopolitical, dominance.

Even if successful, the Xinjiang complex would only involve the number of Nvidia chips that one major hyperscaler — a term for massive data center operators like Microsoft Corp. and Amazon Web Services — deploys in a single week, according to data Nvidia provided on a recent earnings call. Still, Chinese companies like DeepSeek are beginning to show they can do more with less.

“The gap between leading US and Chinese AI labs is closing,” said Kevin Xu, a tech investor and founder of US-based Interconnected Capital, who put it at around three months. Players like DeepSeek, which says it trained its R1 model using less-advanced Nvidia chips, are “very serious and sincere” about pursuing artificial general intelligence, Xu said. The fact that leading Chinese models are open source means they spread faster globally, he added, while noting that diffusion is hard to track: “Beijing sees this trend as a source of technological soft power worth embracing.”

DeepSeek and other Chinese AI startups have already expressed interest in collaborating with the data center projects in Xinjiang, according to an employee of one of the largest investors in the Yiwu sites. That employee, whose name has been withheld to protect their identity, said in a message exchange that their company will invest more than 5 billion yuan ($700 million) in data center projects there in 2025 and 2026.

Photo showing a modern building in front of mountains. That is one of the data centers in Yiwu. Behind the building, there's a slogon painted on the wall, saying 'Data-electricity fusion shows great promise' in Chinese characters.

Behind the new building stands a wall with a slogan: “Data-electricity fusion shows great promise” in Yiwu. Photographer: James Mayger/Bloomberg

China’s data center industry is expected to surpass 300 billion yuan in scale this year, according to the Securities Times. Chinese entities are collectively expected to invest nearly that amount on an annual basis by 2028, according to the China Communications Industry Association — a more than threefold increase from a half-decade prior.

Xinjiang has already brought its first “intelligent computing center” online, and constructed 24,000 petaflops of computing power for demand from the logistics hub of Chongqing, Chairman of the People’s Government of Xinjiang Erkin Tuniyaz said in an annual government work report in January, without specifying the type of chips installed. The cited computing power is equivalent to roughly 12,000 server-integrated Nvidia H100s.

Prospective investors in such projects are attracted with the promise of free electricity worth up to 20% of total power costs. Data center operators also can access government support ranging from one-off payments for construction to operation incentives for up to five years, depending on company size, according to local government documents reviewed by Bloomberg. Experts in “green computing” areas are also eligible for favorable terms on accommodation, children’s education and research funding.

From a standing start, “Xinjiang’s intelligent computing has achieved a historic breakthrough,” Tuniyaz said in January.

China’s Planned Computing Power Corridors

China’s East Data West Computing initiative brings together AI data centers and computing power demands

Source: ‘Research on the overall layout and promotion strategy of the national computing power channel’ from E-Government, Issue 11, 2024

Policymakers in Washington for years have been aware that limiting China’s access to US technology is not as simple as writing a regulation. Not two months after the chip restrictions took effect, Chinese officials caught a woman hiding forbidden hardware in a baby bump. The American AI company Anthropic recently said smugglers have packed GPUs next to live lobsters. Nvidia has dismissed both examples as “tall tales” that ignore the complexity of building data centers, which require operational support to run properly — support that Nvidia does not provide for restricted products in China.

Still, conversations with people privy to illicit semiconductor transactions, as well as media reports from a range of outlets, indicate that smuggling networks have gotten more sophisticated over time. Those stories — which have helped inform US investigations, people familiar with the matter said — have cited examples ranging from dozens of illicit processors to more than a thousand.

Potential smuggling in Malaysia has become a big concern for the Trump administration, which plans to restrict Nvidia sales there to halt possible diversion to China, and also has asked Malaysian authorities to crack down on the issue — a request the government has said it’ll heed. Officials in Singapore, meanwhile, are prosecuting three men for alleged fraud in exports to Malaysia of AI servers that likely contained advanced Nvidia processors — bound for an unknown final destination.

In response to queries about Washington’s export control plans, Malaysia’s Ministry of Investment, Trade & Industry said the country will “act firmly against any company or individual should there be strong evidence” of misuse or diversion of advanced tech.
The ministry added that Malaysia welcomes a dialogue with the US and other nations to “clarify any misunderstandings and to strengthen mutual trust.”

Trump officials are separately investigating whether DeepSeek may have accessed restricted chips through intermediaries in Singapore, and a bipartisan congressional committee focused on China recently requested Nvidia’s customer data for 11 Asian countries, related to concerns that DeepSeek may have circumvented US export controls. (None of the documents viewed or interviews conducted through the course of this investigation indicated any link between the Xinjiang projects and supply chains in Singapore or Malaysia. Nvidia is not accused of any wrongdoing in Singapore’s probe or in the US investigation into DeepSeek.)

Read More: Lutnick Urges Tougher Enforcement of Export Curbs on China

Nvidia consistently has said it abides by all US rules, but Huang has made no secret that he doesn’t like Washington’s strategy. Years of curbs — including on crucial semiconductor manufacturing equipment — have “failed” to contain Huawei’s rise, he said at the May conference in Taipei. Nvidia now sees Huawei as a formidable competitor, and the company worries its Chinese rival will continue to improve and gain market share — unless the US government allows Nvidia to compete on Huawei’s home turf.

Washington isn’t buying it. The Trump administration has already further limited the types of chips Nvidia can sell in China, at a $5.5 billion hit to the company. White House AI Advisor Sriram Krishnan, asked about Huang’s urge to lift those curbs, said that “there is still bipartisan and broad concern about what can happen to these GPUs once they’re physically inside” the Asian country.

Meanwhile, Chinese companies continue to build their data centers, a sign they expect to receive AI chips from somewhere.

Two such construction projects were approved by the Qinghai government in December 2024, with a total investment of 13.5 billion yuan, documents from Qinghai’s investment review website show.

The companies applying for construction permits for both projects were founded that same month. China’s company registry services show both entities can be traced by shareholding data to the same group of controlling companies: one real estate firm in Qinghai named Qinghai Borong Group and one AI tech company in Sichuan called Chengdu Qingshu Technology. They didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Neither is on Nvidia’s official resellers list.

Additional reporting by Ian KingYuan GaoEdwin ChanJenny Leonard Edited by Alan CrawfordJane PongPeter Elstrom Photos edited by Yuki Tanaka

Methodology

Bloomberg News obtained the investment plan documents from Xinjiang and Qinghai’s government websites exhibiting investment approvals, the description of which specify the investing company’s name, date of approval and how many H100/200 servers are to be installed or the planned total computing power. Bloomberg cross-checked the company details in the documents with China’s company registry information to identify their ultimate parents, and looked them up in the tender databases in China for announced procurement and tender information. Bloomberg reporters also found details of Yiwu’s AI development project when conducting reporting in the town, with billboards showcasing the industrial park’s master plan.





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‘Autofocus’ specs promise sharp vision, near or far

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Chris Baraniuk

Technology Reporter

IXI Niko Eiden, smiling and wearing IXI's autofocus specs.IXI

“People don’t want to look like cyborgs,” says Niko Eiden

They look like an ordinary pair of glasses – but these are tech-packed specs.

On a Zoom call, Niko Eiden, chief executive and co-founder of Finnish eyewear firm IXI, holds up the frames with lenses containing liquid crystals, meaning their vision-correcting properties can change on the fly.

This one pair could correct the vision of someone who normally uses totally different pairs of glasses for seeing near or far.

“These liquid crystals… we can rotate them with an electrical field,” explains Mr Eiden.

“It’s totally, freely tuneable.” The position of those crystals affects the passage of light through the lenses. A built-in eye-tracker allows the glasses to respond to whatever correction the wearer needs at a given moment.

However, tech-laden eyewear has a troubled history – take Google’s ill-fated “Glass” smart glasses.

Consumer acceptability is key, acknowledges Mr Eiden. Most people don’t want to look like cyborgs: “We need to make our products actually look like existing eyewear.”

IXI A pair of IXI glases. On one side you can see through to the electronicsIXI

IXI glasses have lenses that can be manipulated with an electric field

The market for eyewear tech is likely to grow.

Presbyopia, an age-related condition that makes it harder to focus on things close to you, is projected to become more common over time as the world’s population ages. And myopia, or short-sightedness, is also on the rise.

Spectacles have remained largely the same for decades. Bifocal lenses – in which a lens is split into two regions, usually for either near- or far-sightedness – require the wearer to direct their vision through the relevant region, depending on what they want to look at, in order to see clearly.

Varifocals do a similar job but the transitions are much smoother.

In contrast, auto-focus lenses promise to adjust part or all of the lens spontaneously, and even accommodate the wearer’s changing eyesight over time.

“The first lenses that we produced were horrible,” admits Mr Eiden, candidly.

Those early prototypes were “hazy”, he says, and with the lens quality noticeably poor at its edges.

But newer versions have proved promising in tests, says Mr Eiden. Participants in the company’s trials have been asked, for example, to read something on a page, then look at an object in the distance, to see whether the glasses respond smoothly to the transition.

Mr Eiden says that the eye tracking device within the spectacles cannot determine exactly what a wearer is looking at, though certain activities such as reading are in principle detectable because of the nature of eye movements associated with them.

Since such glasses respond so closely to the wearer’s eye behaviour, it’s important the frames fit well, says Emilia Helin, product director.

IXI’s frames are adjustable but not to a great degree, given the delicate electronics inside, she explains: “We have some flexibility but not full flexibility.” That’s why IXI hopes to ensure that the small range of frames it has designed would suit a wide variety of faces.

The small battery secreted inside IXI’s autofocus frames should last for two days, says Mr Eiden, adding that it’s possible to recharge the specs overnight while the wearer is asleep.

But he won’t be drawn on a launch date, which he intends to reveal later this year. As for cost, I ask whether £1,000 might be the sort of price tag he has in mind. He merely says, “I’m smiling when you say it but I won’t confirm.”

Getty Images A mother tries on glasses in a store with her young daughterGetty Images

Autofocus lenses could help people who struggle with varifocals or bifocals

Autofocus lenses could help people who struggle with varifocals or bifocals, says Paramdeep Bilkhu, clinical adviser at the College of Optometrists.

However, he adds, “There is insufficient evidence to state whether they perform as well as traditional options and whether they can be used for safety critical tasks such as driving.”

Chi-Ho To, an optometry researcher, at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University has a similar concern – what if the vision correction went wrong or was delayed slightly while he was, say, performing surgery on someone?

“But I think in terms of general use having something that allows autofocusing is a good idea,” he adds.

Mr Eiden notes that the first version of his company’s lenses will not alter the entire lens area. “One can always glance over the dynamic area,” he says. If wholly self-adjusting lenses emerge then safety will become “a much more serious business”, he adds.

In 2013, UK firm Adlens released glasses that allowed wearers to manually change the optical power of the lenses via a small dial on the frames. These lenses contained a fluid-filled membrane, which when compressed in response to dial adjustments would alter its curvature.

Adlens’ current chief executive Rob Stevens says the specs sold for $1,250 (£920) in the US and were “well received by consumers” but not so much by opticians, which he says “strangled sales”.

Since then, technology has moved on and the concept of lenses that refocus themselves automatically, without manual interventions, has emerged.

Like IXI and other companies, Adlens is working on glasses that do this. However, Mr Stevens declines to confirm a launch date.

Joshua Silver, an Oxford University physicist, founded Adlens but no longer works for the company.

He came up with the idea of fluid-filled adjustable lenses back in 1985 and developed glasses that could be tuned to the wearer’s needs and then permanently set to that prescription.

Such lenses have enabled roughly 100,000 people in 20 countries to access vision correcting technology. Prof Silver is currently seeking investment for a venture called Vision, which would further rollout these glasses.

As for more expensive, electronics-filled auto-focus specs, he questions whether they will have broad appeal: “Wouldn’t [people] just go and buy reading glasses, which would more or less do the same thing for them?”

Hong Kong Polytechnic University Prof Chi-Ho To holding up a lens.Hong Kong Polytechnic University

Prof Chi-Ho To has developed a lens which slows short-sightedness

Other specs tech is even slowing down the progression of eye conditions such as myopia, beyond just correcting for them.

Prof To has developed glasses lenses that have a honeycomb-like ring in them. Light passing through the centre of the ring, focused as normal, reaches the wearer’s retina and allows them to see clearly.

However, light passing through the ring itself is defocused slightly meaning that the peripheral retina gets a slightly blurred image.

This appears to slow improper eyeball growth in children, which Prof To says cuts the rate of short-sightedness progression by 60%. Glasses with this technology are now in use in more than 30 countries, he adds.

British firm SightGlass has a slightly different approach – glasses that gently reduce the contrast of someone’s vision to similarly affect eye growth and myopia progression.

While autofocus glasses and other high-tech solutions may have promise, Prof To has an even bigger goal: glasses that don’t just slow down myopia but actually reverse it slightly – a tantalising prospect that could improve the vision of potentially billions of people.

“There is growing evidence that you can do it,” teases Prof To.

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Asia is reeling but is anyone winning?

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Osmond Chia

Business reporter, BBC News

Getty Images US President Donald Trump during a dinner with Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, not pictured, in the Blue Room of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, 7 July, 2025.Getty Images

President Trump has extended the deadline for tariff negotiations – again

“Deeply regrettable” is how Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has described US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat – a 25% levy on Japanese goods.

Tokyo, a long-time US ally, has been trying hard to avoid exactly this. It has been seeking concessions for its beleaguered car makers, while resisting pressure to open its markets to American rice.

There have been many rounds of negotiations. Japan’s trade minister has visited Washington DC at least seven times since April, when Trump announced sweeping tariffs against friends and foes.

And yet, those trips seem to have borne little fruit. Trump’s label for Tokyo moved from “tough” to “spoiled” as talks dragged on.

And then this week, Japan joined a list of 22 nations that were sent tariff letters – 14 of those are in Asia. From South Korea to Sri Lanka, many are export-driven manufacturing hubs.

They have until 1 August to strike a deal with the US. But they are likely wondering about their chances given that Japan, a staunch ally that has been openly pursuing a deal, is still facing a steep levy.

Trump has reset the tariffs clock – again. So who is winning, and who is losing?

Winner: Negotiators who want more time

In one sense, almost all of the countries targeted by Trump earlier this year benefit from the deadline extension – they now have more than three weeks more to strike deals.

“The optimistic case is that there is pressure now to engage in further negotiations before the 1 August deadline,” said Suan Teck Kin, head of research at United Overseas Bank.

Growing economies like Thailand and Malaysia, which received tariff letters this week, will be especially eager to seek a solution. They are also caught in the middle of US-China tensions as Washington targets Chinese exports rerouted through third countries, what are known as transhipped goods.

Economists have told the BBC that further extensions are likely, given the complexity of trade agreements.

Countries will need time to implement Trump’s demands, which, going by the letters, are not entirely clear, said business lecturer Alex Capri from the National University of Singapore.

For instance, transhipped goods have been specifically levied as part of Vietnam’s trade deal with the US. But it is unclear whether that applies to finished goods, or to all imported components.

Either way, it will involve far more sophisticated technology to keep track of supply chains, Mr Capri said.

“It’s going to be a slow, long-term and evolving process involving many third parties, tech companies and logistic partners.”

Loser: Asian manufacturers

It seems clear that tariffs are here to stay, which makes global trade the loser.

Companies from the US, Europe and China with global businesses remain at risk, Mr Capri said. This hurts not just exporters, but also US importers and consumers.

And it is a blow for the economic ambitions of large parts of Asia, whose rise has been fuelled by manufacturing, from electronics to textiles.

Getty Images Garment workers, men and women, walk out in a large group from their factory during their lunch break in Phnom Penh on July 8, 2025.Getty Images

Cambodia’s garment workers rely on an export-driven industry for their livelihood

It is unwise to make zero-sum observations on which countries are winning and losing, Mr Capri added, because international trade, especially between US and China is so deeply inter-linked.

Some countries, however, could lose more than others.

Vietnam was the first in Asia to strike a deal, but it has little leverage against Washington, and is now facing levies up to 40%. The same goes for Cambodia. A poor country heavily reliant on exports, it has been negotiating a deal as Trump threatens 35% tariffs.

South Korea and Japan, on the other hand, may be able to hold out longer, because they are richer and have stronger geo-political levers.

India, which too has leverage of its own, has not been issued a letter yet. A deal has seemed imminent but appears to be delayed by key sticking points, including access to the Indian agricultural market and the country’s import rules.

Loser: US-Japan alliance

“Despite its close economic and military relationship with the US, Japan is being treated the same as other Asian trade partners,” said economist Jesper Koll.

And that could transform the relationship, especially as Tokyo, with its large financial reserves, appears to be ready for the long game.

“Japan has proven to be a tough negotiator and I think that has annoyed Trump,” Mr Koll said.

Despite a rice shortage that has sent prices soaring, PM Ishiba has refused to buy US rice, choosing instead to protect domestic farmers. His government has also refused to give in to US demands to increase its military spending.

Getty Images This photo taken on April 8, 2025 shows a man in a cap walking past the logo of Samsung Electronics on a billboard in Vietnam's Bac Ninh province.Getty Images

Global businesses like Samsung are in limbo because of Trump’s tariffs

“They are well prepared,” Mr Koll argued. He said the day after Trump announced tariffs in April, Tokyo declared an economic emergency and set up hundreds of consultation centres to assist affected companies.

“Japan will be seeking a deal that is credible,” he said, because what’s the guarantee Trump won’t change his mind again?

With Japan’s upper-house election due this month, it would be surprising if a deal is agreed by August, Mr Koll said.

“No-one is happy. But is this something that is going to force a recession in Japan? No.”

Winner: US or China?

Asia has long been seen as a key battleground between Washington and Beijing, and analysts say, because of tariffs, Trump may be ceding ground.

For one, given how complex these deals can be, Trump may be overplaying his hand by extending the deadline again, according to some observers.

“The bargaining position of the US has actually been diminished as they have revealed that their hand isn’t actually as strong as they would like,” said NUS economics professor David Jacks.

And the deals that are made could come at the cost of reshaping trade and ties built over decades.

Trump’s choice of posting the letters online, rather than through traditional diplomatic channels, could backfire, said Mr Capri, who described it as “political theatre”.

The confusion caused is a “great gift” to China, which is trying to portray itself as a stable alternative to Trump’s unpredictability, he added.

But the US market is not easy to replace – and Beijing has its fair share of tensions with countries in this part of the world, from Vietnam to Japan.

China is in the middle of its own trade negotiations the US, although it has longer to strike a full agreement – until 13 August.

So who will win more friends in this trade war is hard to say, but the race is still on.

“Both parties see the need for a divorce,” Prof Jacks said, “but getting there will be tough and involve proceedings which will span years, if not decades.”



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Indeed and Glassdoor to lay off 1,300 workers as AI shakes up job search business

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Indeed and Glassdoor, the job search and employee review firms, are slashing a total of roughly 1,300 jobs as their parent company, Japan’s Recruit Holdings, embraces artificial intelligence. 

In an email to employees Thursday, Recruit Holdings CEO Hisayuki “Deko” Idekoba said that “AI is changing the world” and that the company must adapt accordingly. The layoffs represent about 6% of Recruit Holdings’ workforce.

The cuts will target the companies’ research and development, as well as “people & sustainability,” teams in the U.S., but other areas and regions will also be affected, according to Recruit Holdings. The company will send notices to employees who are losing their jobs on Thursday.  

The move reflects Recruit Holdings’ focus on using AI to transform how job-seekers look for work and how employers handle recruitment. As part of that effort, the company will fold Glassdoor operations into Indeed, the company told CBS MoneyWatch. Glassdoor CEO Christian Sutherland-Wong is stepping down. 

“[W]hen we think about HR industry, which is $300 billion-plus industry, but it includes like 60% or 65% of human labor manual cost. It’s very difficult to find that big industry with such a high percentage of human labor manual cost,” Idekoba said in May at a JPMorgan Chase technology conference. “And so what we believe is, basically, how can we simplify hiring with using AI and technology and data to reduce manual work. That’s what we are focusing on.”

He added that about one-third of the company’s new programming code is written by AI, and that he expects that figure to jump to one-half. “It’s going to be 50% pretty soon,” he said.

The layoffs come as corporate leaders tout AI’s capabilities, while some experts warn that the technology could lead to job losses. Speaking in June at the the Aspen Ideas Festival, for example, Ford CEO Jim Farley said AI is likely to replace half of all white-collar workers in the U.S. 



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