The cost of the state pension triple lock is set to be three times’ higher by the end of the decade than original estimated, according to the government’s official forecaster.

The triple lock guarantees that the state pension rises each year in line with either inflation, wage increases or 2.5% – whichever is the highest.

It meant the state pension rose by 4.1% in April 2025.

The state pension is a payment made every four weeks by the government, to people who have reached the qualifying age and have paid enough National Insurance (NI) contributions.

In April 2025, the earnings link meant the state pension increased by 4.1%, making it worth:

• £230.25 a week for the full, new flat-rate state pension (for those who reached state pension age after April 2016) – a rise of £472 a year
• £176.45 a week for the full, old basic state pension (for those who reached state pension age before April 2016) – a rise of £363 a year

In general, you need 35 years of qualifying contributions to get a full state pension.

Some people may have gaps in their NI record if, for example, they have lived abroad or taken time off to care for children.

You can make voluntary payments to boost your contribution history. From 6 April, you can only make payments for the previous six years.

Under the triple lock system, the state pension increases each April in line with whichever of three measures is the highest:

• inflation in the September of the previous year, using a measure called the Consumer Prices Index (CPI)
• the average increase in total wages across the UK for May to June of the previous year
• or 2.5%

The triple lock was introduced by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government in 2010.

It was designed to ensure the value of the state pension wasn’t overtaken by the increase in the cost of living or the incomes of working people.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves previously said the Labour government would keep the triple lock until the end of the current Parliament.

But since that commitment, there has been intense debate over the cost of the triple lock and whether it is justified.

In July 2025, the government’s official forecaster said the cost of the triple lock guarantee was set to be three times higher by the end of the decade than was originally anticipated when it began in 2011.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said the annual cost is set to reach £15.5bn by 2030.

It said the cost of the state pension has risen steadily over the past eight decades, and now equates to £138bn, or around half the total amount the government spent on benefits.

Earlier in July, the influential Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank suggested the triple lock should be scrapped as part of a wider pensions overhaul.

More than 12 million people currently receive the state pension.

Men and women born between 6 October 1954 and 5 April1960 start receiving their pension at the age of 66.

But for people born after this date, the state pension age is increasing:

• a gradual rise to 67 for those born on, or after, 5 April 1960
• a gradual rise to 68 between 2044 and 2046 for those born on, or after, 5 April 1977

The International Longevity Centre, a think tank, argues that the UK will have to increase the state pension age to 71 by 2050, to keep the cost sustainable.

Depending on their overall income, those above retirement age may also be entitled to pension credit in addition to the basic state pension.

Pension credit also increased by 4.1% in April 2025 meaning it tops up weekly income to:

• £227.10 if you are single – a rise of £465 a year
• £346.60 if you have a partner – a rise of £710 a year

If your income is above the stated limits, you may still be eligible for pension credit if you have a disability or care for someone.

Anyone who qualifies for pension credit may also be entitled to other financial support, including housing benefit, a reduction in council tax, help with heating costs and the warm home discount scheme.

The winter fuel payment was previously paid to all pensioners to help with energy costs during the coldest period of the year.

In July 2024, the government said it would change the rules for the winter fuel payment in England and Wales from the next winter. The governments in Scotland and Northern Ireland said they would have to follow Westminster.

It said only those on pension credit or other means-tested benefits are eligible for the winter fuel payment, which is worth either £200 or and £300, depending on your circumstances.

The changes meant that more than 10 million pensioners did not receive a winter fuel payment in 2024.

Several charities, unions, and MPs criticised the decision.

In June 2025, after much speculation the government announced a U-turn which means winter fuel payments will now go to around nine million pensioners in England and Wales with an annual income of £35,000 or less. That’s about 75% of pensioners.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government would “continue to means-test this payment so that it is targeted and fair, rather than restoring eligibility to everyone including the wealthiest”.

The rules will also change again in the rest of the UK.